Canadian Dollar softens on Crude Oil hesitation with Canada GDP, US Fed rate call in the pipe

• Canadian Dollar trimmed recent gains as energy markets continue to roil.
• Canada absent from economic data docket until Wednesday’s Canadian GDP print.
• Crude Oil pared back recent highs on Red Sea headlines, China growth concerns.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) eased on Monday, backsliding after Crude Oil markets snipped away the week’s opening highs as the trading week kicks off with a light economic calendar on offer. The midweek period will see an update on Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and another rate call from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), both slated for Wednesday, and Friday will wrap up the week’s trading action with US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).

Canada is expected to see a slight uptick in GDP figures on Wednesday, with November’s MoM GDP forecast to print at 0.1% compared to the flat 0.0% from October, but broad-market focus will be on the Fed’s upcoming rate call and monetary policy statement at 19:00 GMT Wednesday. The Fed will follow up their latest interest rate decision with a press conference at 19:30 GMT.

Daily digest market movers: Canadian Dollar eases on early Crude Oil reversal

• Canadian Dollar down against most of major currencies on Monday.
• Crude Oil markets saw an early high to kick off the trading week, but barrel bids quickly fell back into near-term consolidation, dragging the Loonie lower.
• Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen struck a commercial tanker in the Red Sea over the weekend, and energy markets spiked as retaliation is expected.
• China saw one of its lowest growth periods on record, excluding the Covid pandemic crunch.
• Concerns that the world’s largest Crude Oil importer sees slowing barrel demand is trimming energy bids, capping oil upside.
• Money markets are keen for a rate pivot from the Fed on Wednesday.
• Rate swaps this week are pricing in an 89.5% chance of a Fed rate cut of at least 25 basis points at the Fed’s May meeting, according to CME FedWatch Tool.
• Canada has a thin showing on the economic calendar this week, with Wednesday’s November GDP print and Thursday’s S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) the only notable lines on the Canadian side.

Technical Analysis: Canadian Dollar pares back on Monday, chews into recent upswing

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is broadly lower on Monday, declining against most of its major currency pairs.

The Canadian Dollar is down a fifth to a quarter of a percent against the Antipodeans as well as the Japanese Yen (JPY), while it sticks close to flat against the US Dollar (USD). The CAD has gained four-tenths of a percent against the Euro (EUR) and one-sixth of a percent against the Pound Sterling (GBP) as the European bloc sees Monday’s weakest performance.

The USD/CAD pair remains stuck in congestion near 1.3450 as bids get hung up on near-term medians with price action hampered by the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.3480.

Daily candlesticks remain stuck closely to the 200-day SMA near 1.3500, and a lack of chart momentum sees a congestion pattern settling into the USD/CAD.

With the 50-SMA drifting into the low side of the long-term 200-day SMA, potential is on the rise for a bearish break toward December’s swing low into the 1.3200 handle.

USD/CAD Hourly Chart

USD/CAD Daily Chart