EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Bears dominate after ECB decision, Lagarde’s cautious tone

• EUR/GBP experienced losses standing at 0.8530, down by 0.30%.
• The ECB held rates steady as expected.
• Christine Lagarde refrained from commenting on the timing of the ECB rate cuts.
• Monetary policy divergences gives the Pound traction over the Euro.

On Thursday's session, the EUR/GBP pair was observed at a trading level of 0.8530, seeing 0.30% loss. Bears seem to be gaining ground, as the daily chart manifests a bearish outlook. The four-hour chart extends this negative forecast, reflecting an increased dominance of sellers in the market's current state.

In that sense, the EUR/GBP weakened after the European Central Bank’s (ECB) cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with only minimal hints of cutting interest rates, and as for now the markets do not expect a rate cut until June. In contrast, the Bank of England (BoE) maintains a steady policy with markets expecting less easing than the ECB of 125 bps in 2024 which gives the GBP strength. Therefore, both the ECB's potential easing and the BoE's steady approach is pushing the cross downwards. Another factor that benefits the Pound is that the British economy is holding resilient to the BoE monetary policy which is pushing the bank to delay rate cuts.

EUR/GBP levels to watch

The indicators on the daily chart are depicting a bear-dominant market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is seen to be on a downward path, maintaining its location in the negative sector pointing towards an ongoing bearish momentum. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators display an increasing number of red bars, a sign that selling pressure is escalating. Moreover, the crosse's position below the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) further substantiates the bearish stance..

Shifting to a shorter timeframe, the bearish sentiment persists. The four-hour chart still mirrors the negative scenario with the indicators reinforcing the bearish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) persists in the negative territory with its negative slope indicating that bears continue to control the momentum. In line with this, the four-hour Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) features rising red bars, again, marking an increase in selling activity.

EUR/GBP daily chart