USD/CHF reaches one-month highs near 0.8650 ahead of US Retail Sales

• The US Dollar rallies to fresh one-month highs on dwindling hopes of Fed cuts.
• Later today, the US Retail Sales and an array of Fed speakers will be observed with attention.
• USD/CHF recovery might find resistance at the 0.8665 area.

The US Dollar keeps marching higher after having rallied 1.5% over the last five trading days. The pair has reached its highest price in the mid-range of 0.8650 with investors scaling back Feed rate cut expectations, ahead of the release of US Retail Sales figures.

Retail consumption is expected to have increased at a faster 0.4% pace in December, with the mild weather pushing shoppers to the high street. This is likely to confirm that the US economy remains resilient and that the Fed has still some work to do to bring inflation to target.

After the release, the focus will shift to the speeches of Fed policymakers. NY Fed president John Williams and Board member Michelle Bowman, traditional hawks, plus vice-chair Michael Bar, with a more neutral profile, are likely to share their views on the monetary policy outlook.

A wider perspective shows the pair in a corrective recovery after having depreciated nearly 10% in the last quarter of 2023. The pair is approaching the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the mentioned decline, at 0.8665 where it might find some sellers. Above here, the next target is 0.8720.

Supports are at 0.8575 previous resistance area and 0.8460.

Technical levels to watch