USD/CAD Price Analysis: Refreshes two-week high ahead of US/Canada Employment data

• USD/CAD has climbed to near 1.3380 as investors turn anxious ahead of US labor market data.
• The Unemployment Rate in the US and Canada in December is seen at 3.8% and 5.9% respectively.
• A decisive break above 23.6% Fibo retracement has improved appeal for the Loonie asset.

The USD/CAD pair prints a fresh two-week high near 1.3380 in the London session. The Loonie asset has witnessed a decent buying interest due to a sharp recovery in the US Dollar Index (DXY) amid cautious market mood ahead of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

As per the estimates, investors see 170K jobs being created in December against overall hiring of 199K in November. The Unemployment Rate is seen marginally higher at 3.8% vs. the former reading of 3.7%. The upbeat ADP Employment data, released on Thursday, has set a positive undertone for the labor growth.

An upbeat US NFP report is expected to trim prospects of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) from March, knowing that higher job growth will keep the last leg of underlying inflation sticky ahead.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar will also dance to the tunes of its domestic labor market data, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. Canada’s jobless rate is seen higher at 5.9% vs. the prior reading of 5.8%.

USD/CAD has climbed above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (plotted from 1 November 2023 high at 1.3900 to 27 December 2023 low at 1.3177) at 1.3350. Upward-sloping 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.3310 will continue to provide support to the US Dollar bulls.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the upside range of 60.00-80.00, which indicates that a bullish momentum has been triggered

Fresh buying would appear if the Loonie asset corrects marginally to the 23.6% Fibo retracement, which is around 1.3350. This will drive the asset towards December 18 high at 1.3410, followed by 38.2% Fibo retracement at 1.3453.

On the flip side, downside bias could stem if the pair drops below December 28 low of 1.3180. This would expose the asset to July 25 low near 1.3150, followed by July 13 low around 1.3193.

USD/CAD four-hour chart