Gold (XAU/USD) has opened the week on a mildly positive tone, favoured by a moderate pullback on the US Dollar (USD) and the depressed US bond yields, which remain stuck at mid-term lows.
The precious metal, which is hovering right above $2,020 remains buoyed by increasing hopes that the global tightening cycle has come to an end. The effect of hawkish comments by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials on Friday, downplaying monetary easing hopes, has been short-lived and the USD is drifting lower again at the week’s opening,
Investors are now looking for more cues about the timing of the central bank’s first rate cuts, with their eyes on the US Q3 GDP figures, due on Thursday, and Friday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Prices Index. These releases are likely to boost US Dollar volatility and might help the precious metal to define its near-term direction.
The technical picture shows the precious metal supported above $2,000, yet intraday charts show a lack of clear direction, with the hourly and 4-hour RSIs practically flat near the 50 midline.
Bulls are missing confidence to attempt a retest to previous highs at $2,040 in a calm trading session on Monday, with investors awaiting more data to place significant bets. The broader trend, however, remains positive from the early October lows near $1,800.
On the upside, the precious metal should breach the $2,040-$2,050 to convince bulls and extend towards the $2,065 area ahead of the all-time high at $2,150.
On the downside, Gold has important support at the $2,015-$2,020 area, where the confluence of the 50 and 100 SMAs in 4-hour charts meet the 50% Fibonacci Retracement of the October-December rally. Below here, bearish pressure would increase with the $1,977 support area coming into play.
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The PCE Price Index is also the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The core reading excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures." Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.
Read more.Next release: 12/22/2023 13:30:00 GMT
Frequency: Monthly
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
After publishing the GDP report, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data alongside the monthly changes in Personal Spending and Personal Income. FOMC policymakers use the annual Core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, as their primary gauge of inflation. A stronger-than-expected reading could help the USD outperform its rivals as it would hint at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed’s forward guidance and vice versa.
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