Australian Dollar continues to move upward as Aussie Employment Change improves

• Australian Dollar surges to four-month highs as US Dollar loses ground after Fed decision.
• Australia’s Consumer Expectations reduced to 4.5% and Employment Change rose substantially to 61.5K.
• Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 5.5% and investors expect three rate cuts for 2024.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its gains on the second consecutive day on Thursday and delivers its strongest performance in four months after moderate employment data release from Australia. The AUD/USD pair gained ground, benefiting from a substantial decline in the US Dollar (USD) following the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. In line with expectations, the Fed opted to maintain interest rates at 5.5%. Markets are now projecting three rate cuts for 2024. Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopted a dovish stance, contributing to the decline in Treasury bond yields. He refrained from declaring victory on inflation.

Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations for December eased at 4.5% against the previous figures of 4.9%. The seasonally adjusted Employment Change (Nov) improved substantially to 61.5K compared to the expected 11.0K. However, Unemployment Rate rose to 3.9% from 3.7% previously.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) receives downward pressure after downbeat Producer Price Index (PPI) data for November was released on Wednesday. US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that the PPI (YoY) reduced to the growth of 0.9% against the expected growth of 1.0%, while the Core PPI came in at 2.0% against the 2.2% expected. Market participants will likely observe the release of US Retail Sales data on Thursday.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar receives upward support after Fed policy decision

• ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence weekly survey rose to 80.8 from the previous week's 76.4.
• Westpac Consumer Confidence for December showed improvement at 2.7% from the previous decline of 2.6%.
• Australian government anticipates a significantly improved budget bottom line this year as revenues outpace forecasts. In the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook (MYEFO) presented by Labor Treasurer Jim Chalmers, a budget deficit of just AUD 1.1 billion (USD 721.4 million) in the year to end June 2024 is projected, down from the AUD 13.9 billion forecasted back in May.
• US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year. Both figures aligned with market consensus, indicating that inflation levels met expectations.
• US Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed by 0.3% MoM and 4.0% YoY, in line with expectations.

Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar surges to psychological level at 0.6700

The Australian Dollar trades higher around the psychological level at 0.6700 on Thursday. A potential upward move from this point could propel the AUD/USD pair towards August's high at 0.6723, followed by the significant level at 0.6750. On the downside, the key support at 0.6650 holds significance, along with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6503, aligning with the psychological support at 0.6500. A decisive breach below this support level might exert downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair, with the potential to navigate towards the region around the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6577.

AUD/USD: Daily Chart