Indian Rupee (INR) extends its downside amid modest US Dollar (USD) strength. Data released on Tuesday revealed that the Indian Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in higher than the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) target of 4.0%. Although headline inflation remained within its tolerance range of 2–6% for the third consecutive month, it has surpassed the medium-term target of 4% for the past 50 consecutive months.
Furthermore, the Consumer Food Price Index, which measures food inflation, increased by 8.70% in November from 6.61% the previous month. Last week, the RBI Monetary Policy Committee decided to keep the policy repo rate steady at 6.50%, and the MPC stated that they will closely monitor any indications of food price pressures.
Investors await the US Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting. The annual PPI figure is forecast to ease from 1.3% to 1.0% in November, while the PPI rate ex Food & Energy is expected to drop from 2.4% to 2.2% in the same period. The highlight will be the Fed interest rate decision, with no change expected. Nonetheless, investors will examine Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments after the meeting for fresh impetus.
Indian Rupee trades on a softer note on the day. The USD/INR pair has traded in a familiar trading band between 82.80 and 83.40 since September. According to the daily chart, USD/INR maintains a bullish vibe as the pair holds above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The upward momentum is reinforced by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) that stands above the 50.0 midline.
A decisive break above the upper boundary of the trading range at 83.40 will see the next upside barrier near the year-to-date (YTD) high of 83.47, en route to a psychological round mark of 84.00. On the other hand, any follow-through selling below the critical support level of 83.00 round figure will next downside stop near the confluence of the lower limit of the trading range and a low of September 12 at 82.80, followed by a low of August 11 at 82.60.
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
USD | 0.09% | 0.14% | 0.07% | 0.16% | 0.21% | 0.52% | 0.05% | |
EUR | -0.09% | 0.05% | -0.03% | 0.04% | 0.12% | 0.40% | -0.04% | |
GBP | -0.14% | -0.05% | -0.07% | 0.01% | 0.08% | 0.38% | -0.09% | |
CAD | -0.07% | 0.03% | 0.07% | 0.07% | 0.15% | 0.45% | -0.03% | |
AUD | -0.14% | -0.05% | -0.02% | -0.10% | 0.06% | 0.37% | -0.11% | |
JPY | -0.21% | -0.11% | -0.07% | -0.16% | -0.08% | 0.31% | -0.16% | |
NZD | -0.52% | -0.44% | -0.37% | -0.45% | -0.36% | -0.30% | -0.50% | |
CHF | -0.05% | 0.04% | 0.09% | 0.03% | 0.11% | 0.16% | 0.44% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
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