Mexican Peso (MXN) drops sharply for the second straight day against the US Dollar (USD) in early trading during the North American session on Thursday. The latest data from the United States (US) is sponsoring a leg-up in the Greenback (USD), underpinned by high US Treasury bond yields, a tailwind for the USD/MXN. At the time of writing, the exotic pair exchanges hands below the 17.40 area, printing gains of more than 0.60%.
Mexico’s economic docket witnessed the release of the Unemployment Rate, which came a tenth lower in non-seasonally adjusted figures at 2.7% YoY, below forecasts of 2.8% and beneath September’s 2.9%. The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) revised its economic growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024 to the upside in its quarterly report, released on Thursday. The bank noted that inflation would take longer than expected to dip to the bank’s target, projecting that it would hit the 3% target by 2025.
During Banxico’s presentation of its quarterly economic projections, Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja kept the door open for rate cuts, but discussions would be held in the first quarter of 2024. Banxico’s Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath echoed some of Rodriguez's comments, though he pushed back against easing monetary policy in the first quarter.
Across the border, the United States (US) economic calendar revealed the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, cooled as expected. Yet after the data, investors trimmed their aggressive Fed rate cut expectations for 2024, while the USD/MXN rose to a daily high of 17.49 before retreating below 17.45.
Although the USD/MXN remains bearish, the jump above the confluence of the 20 and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), each at 17.34/35, respectively, opened the door to challenge the 17.50 psychological level for the first time since November 14. A decisive break of that level could pave the way for testing the 200-day SMA at 17.57, ahead of challenging the 50-day SMA at 17.69
On the other hand, a retracement back below the confluence of the 20 and 100-day SMAs could sponsor a drop toward the November 29 daily close of 17.25, a strong resistance level, which turned support. Once cleared, the next support would be 17.05.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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