The US Dollar (USD) traded in a tight range on Wednesday where both buyers and sellers were not budging after the meltdown from Tuesday. Traders will want to look for further clues and confirmation if the Fed is truly done hiking, with bets mounting on when the Fed will cut first. Meanwhile yields are sinking lower and equities are soaring, which means that the rate differential story between the Greenback and other currencies is losing its importance.
The calendar this Thursday is a very packed one with all eyes on US Federal Reserve speakers: no less than five members of the Board of Governors are expected to speak. Add a few lighter data points that could confirm and reassure traders that the Fed is really done hiking, and some more Greenback devaluation might be at hand. In the background the clock is ticking on the US debt ceiling with no concrete solution yet nearby.
The US Dollar is trying to continue its recovery from Tuesday's meltdown. The recovery is not going as speedy as hoped for, however, as only baby steps are visible in the US Dollar Index (DXY). It looks like traders have been unwinding their US Dollar long positions and only a substantial catalyst in favour of the Greenback will help to bring the DXY back to 105 and higher.
The DXY was able to bounce off the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 104.20. Expect to see a bounce from there with 105.29, the low of November 6, as the market level where the DXY should try to close above this week. From there, the 55-day SMA at 105.71 is the next price point on the topside that needs to be reclaimed by US Dollar bulls before starting to think of more US Dollar strength to come into play.
Traders were warned that when the US Dollar Index would slide below that 55-day SMA, a big air pocket was opening up that could see the DXY fall substantially. This materialised on Tuesday. For now the 100-day SMA is trying to hold, at 103.62, although the 200-day SMA is a much better candidate for support. Should that level even be broken substantially, a long term sell-off could get underway with the DXY falling between 101.00 and 100.00.
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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