The US Dollar (USD) measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose towards 106.60 and seems to be building strong support around the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Earlier in the session, the US reported mixed housing data and investors await the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book to continue placing their bets on the next monetary policy decisions from the American central bank. Several Fed officials will also be on the wires during the American session.
The United States’ economic activity is holding strong revealed by the latest reports including S&P Global PMIs, Industrial Production and Retail Sales. However, the Beige Book gives a clearer outlook on the current US economic situation through interviews with key business contacts, economists, and market experts gathered by each of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts.
The DXY index managed to jump back above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 106.25, and technical indicators gained some ground on the daily chart on Wednesday. In the broader context, the index arguably remains in a bullish trend overall, holding above the key 200 and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA).
With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointing north above 50 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) printing lower red bars – both are sending mildly supportive signals.
Supports: 106.20 (20-day SMA), 106.00, 105.80.
Resistances:106.70, 107.00, 107.30.
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
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