Oil edges up ahead of US inflation data, stockpile numbers

• Oil (WTI) pops higher and flirts with a break of $90.
• The US Dollar in wait-and-see mode ahead of US CPI data.
• The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is set to print its weekly US crude stockpile figures. 

Oil prices have been a hot topic these past few days. The fire started when both Saudi Arabia and Russia committed to extending their supply cuts until the end of the year. Analysts, meanwhile, had ample time to crunch numbers and see a near 1 to 2 million barrels shortfall in the coming months. 

As in economics 101, less supply and stable demand  means prices will soar. And these soaring Oil prices are a headache across the globe at a moment when central banks are scrambling to get inflation down back to target. Oil price increases could already show up in the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August, which will be released at 12:30 GMT. The energy component in US inflation was in a deflationary area, but the recent uptick could mean that energy prices are contributing again to inflation, driving up overall price growth and  erasing the recent slowdown. 

At the time of writing, Crude Oil (WTI) price trades at $88.86 per barrel and Brent Oil at $92.25.

Oil news and market movers

• Wall Street analysts are cautious on the recent uptrend in oil, with several pointing out that the equity market is not in need of more Oil. The supply side may be tightening, but the demand side could be also shrinking  in the near term.
• Another argument is that the next official OPEC meeting is still far away. The OPEC meeting might be a non-event and trigger a pullback in Oil prices as most of the headlines are likely out of the way and no surprises are expected. 
• The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said in a recent report that the  Oil supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia are creating a significant  shortfall and threaten a renewed surge in price volatility. The report contradicts Saudi Arabia’s position that the cuts  are due to balance out markets as the coming quarter could bear a supply hole of over three million barrels per day. This would be the largest shortfall in a decade, with little explanation from OPEC+ on why it is so eager to cut. 
• The US Energy Information Agency (EIA) is set to publish this week's numbers in terms of change in Crude oil stockpile.  Expectations range from  a build of 2 million barrels to a drawdown of 4.4 million barrels. So any number above 2 million will see selling pressure on oil prices, where any drawdown bigger than 4.4 million barrels might see Oil prices increase further across the board. 
• Equity markets are flat ahead of the US CPI numbers. 

Oil Technical Analysis: too quick too high?

Oil prices keep pushing higher and are setting new records for the year. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is deeply overbought, the newsflow and possible drawdowns in US stockpiles could eke out that last touch of more gains. Do not expect a quick jump up to $93.12 as a bigger catalyst will be needed to cause such a big move. 

On the upside, $88 is the first nearby hurdle that has been taken out. From here, it will be a tiered rally toward first $90 and then $93.12, the double top from October-November last year. This means a 5% uptick move is possible in the nearby future. 

On the downside, a pivotal level is at $84.30, the high of August 10. In case this level does not hold, a substantial nosedive might occur. In such a case, Oil prices might drop all the way to a key floor near $78. 

WTI US OIL daily chart