The Pound Sterling (GBP) struggles for a decisive move as investors await fresh cues about the interest rate peak from the Bank of England (BoE). The GBP/USD pair turns delicate as BoE policymakers, including Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent and Chief Economist Huw Pill, warned that sufficiently restrictive policy needs to be maintained longer to bring down the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the desired rate of 2%.
Investors hope that the UK economy cannot avoid a recession as higher interest rates are critically impacting the housing sector and factory activities. The UK’s economic outlook has deteriorated as core inflation is hovering near its all-time high due to labor shortages and strong wage growth. Meanwhile, the BoE is preparing to raise interest rates further in September. An interest rate hike of 25 basis points (bps) is expected that will push interest rates to 5.50%.
Pound Sterling consolidates near 1.2650 after a corrective move from the weekly high of 1.2746 as a risk-off impulse emerges. The Cable is consistently failing to sustain above the 20 and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which indicates that investors are considering pullbacks as a selling opportunity. A fresh downside would emerge if the asset drops below the crucial support of 1.2600.
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
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