US Core PCE Inflation Preview: Federal Reserve preferred price indicator set to remain above target

• Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is forecast to rise 0.2% MoM and 4.2% YoY in July.
• The Federal Reserve left the door open for one more rate hike as Powell stressed data-dependency.
• The US Dollar faces a two-way risk heading into PCE inflation data.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favored inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, on Thursday, August 31 at 12:30 GMT.

What to expect in the Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE inflation report?

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which excludes food and energy, is forecast to rise 0.2% in July on month, matching the June increase. The annual Core PCE Price Index is seen rising 4.2%, at a slightly higher pace than the 4.1% registered in June.

The headline PCE Price Index is expected to grow 0.2% MoM in July, while the annual PCE figure is anticipated to rise 3.3% following the 3% increase recorded in June.

“On a 12-month basis, US total, or ‘headline,’ PCE inflation peaked at 7% in June 2022 and declined to 3.3% as of July, following a trajectory roughly in line with global trends,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in his opening speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. 

“On a 12-month basis, core PCE inflation peaked at 5.4% in February 2022 and declined gradually to 4.3% in July,” Powell added. 

Although these remarks might suggest that Powell gave away July PCE figures, the document attached to the press release of Powell’s speech noted that “the data point for July 2023 is an estimate based on consumer price index and producer price index data.”

Nevertheless, the chairman’s speech has seemingly lowered the significance of the PCE inflation report and may even have eliminated the surprise factor.

Michael Hewson, Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets, offers his view on the upcoming PCE data:

“July inflation numbers could prompt further concern about sticky inflation if we get sizeable ticks higher in the monthly as well as annual headline numbers. When we got the CPI numbers earlier in August, we saw evidence that prices might struggle to move much lower, after headline CPI edged higher to 3.2%. We can expect to see a similar move in this week’s numbers, with a move to 3.3% in the deflator and to 4.3% in the core deflator.”

When will be the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index report released and how could it affect EUR/USD?

The PCE Inflation report is due at 12:30 GMT on August 31. Earlier in the week, data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the number of job openings on the last business day of July declined to 8.8 million from 9.1 million in June, marking the lowest reading since May 2021. As this report highlighted loosening conditions in the US labor market, the probability of the Fed leaving its policy rate unchanged by the end of the year edged higher to 50% from nearly 40% earlier in the week. 

In case there is a 0.3% or higher increase in the monthly core PCE inflation, the US Dollar could gather strength against its rivals with an immediate reaction. On the other hand, a reading close to 0% could trigger a USD sell-off. However, investors could refrain from taking large positions ahead of Friday’s all-important August jobs report, causing any market reaction to PCE data to remain short-lived. 

FXStreet Analyst Eren Sengezer offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD and explains: “The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart climbed above 50 and EUR/USD rose above the 100-day Simple Moving Average for the first time in two weeks on Wednesday, pointing to a buildup of bullish momentum.”

Eren also highlights the important technical levels for EUR/USD: “On the upside, the pair could face first resistance at 1.0980-1.1000 (50-day SMA, psychological level). With a daily close above that area, additional gains toward 1.1060 (static level) and 1.1150 (July 27 high) could be seen. In case EUR/USD retreats below 1.0930 (100-day SMA) and continues to use that level as resistance, sellers could remain interested. In that scenario, 1.0860 could be seen as interim support ahead of 1.0800 (200-day SMA).