USD/CHF fades recovery around 0.8770, investors await US inflation data

• USD/CHF loses steam below the 0.8800 barrier on Thursday.
• Markets are now pricing near 40% a rate hike in November and will cut the rate in June 2024.
• The softer Swiss data capped the upside of the Swiss Franc.
• The annual Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI), US Nonfarm Payrolls will be in the spotlight.

The USD/CHF pair loses its recovery momentum and holds below the 0.8800 mark during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the value of USD against six other major currencies, loses momentum and hovers around 103.00. At the time of writing, the USD/CHF is trading at 0.8772, losing 0.14%.

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. reported on Wednesday that the US ADP Employment Change dropped to 177K in August from 371K in July and came in below the market expectation of 195K. Additionally, the first estimate of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Prices in Q2 fell to 2.5% versus 2.6% prior. Finally, the second estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualised Q2 decreased to 2.1% from the first estimation of 2.4%.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing near 40% a rate hike in November and will cut the rate in June 2024. Markets anticipate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will end its tightened policy sooner than expected, even though Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell stated a potential additional rate hike would depend on incoming data. The condition of the labor market may influence the USD's short-term direction. Market participants are awaiting the release of US employment data later this week, which could spark market volatility.

On the Swiss franc front, the weaker-than-expected Swiss data capped the upside CHF against the US Dollar. On Wednesday, the KOF Leading Indicator for August came in at 91.1 versus 92.01 prior and below the market consensus of 91.5. Meanwhile, the ZEW Survey of Expectation for the same period fell to -38.6 from -32.6 the previous month and missed the expectation of -31.3.

Apart from the data, the concern about China’s economic woes might benefit the traditional safe-haven Swiss Franc. Country Garden, the largest private real estate developer in China, issued a default warning on Wednesday if its financial performance continues to deteriorate, according to Reuters.

Market participants will monitor the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), the weekly Jobless Claims, and the Chicago PMI due later on Thursday. The attention will shift to the annual Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) and highly-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. These figures might trigger the volatility in the market and traders will find the trading opportunities around the USD/CHF pair.