Gold price (XAU/USD) turned lackluster after defending the critical support of $1,900.00 on Monday. The precious metal consolidates as investors prepare for crucial economic indicators such as Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and ISM Manufacturing PMI for August, which will be released later this week. The impact of August economic data will be very significant as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell reiterated at the Jackson Hole Symposium that further policy action will be data-dependent.
Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole said that the achievement of price stability has a long way to go. Powell kept doors open for further policy tightening if economic data continues to remain supportive. After Powell’s commentary, investors expect that the central bank could raise interest rates in November as a last nail in the coffin.
Gold price turns sideways around $1,915.00 after defending the crucial support of $1,900.00 as investors digest Powell’s hawkish commentary at the Jackson Hole Symposium. On a broader note, the precious metal is auctioning in a range of $1,904-$1,922 from Thursday. The yellow metal made two consecutive Spinning Top candlesticks, signaling indecisiveness among market participants. The precious metal regains territory above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,907 but the 20-day EMA at $1,916 is still restricting its upside potential.
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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