Powell Speech Preview: Fed chairman to speak on policy outlook at Jackson Hole

• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech on the US economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
• Powell’s comments on monetary policy and interest rate path will be scrutinized by markets.
• US Dollar could show significant reaction to Powell’s speech on the last trading day of the week.

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve System (Fed), will deliver opening remarks at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday, August 25. Powell’s speech – titled “Economic Outlook” – is expected to offer important clues on the Fed’s next policy step and ramp up market volatility heading into the weekend.

Please refresh the page for updates. A live video stream of Powell's speech and his remarks will be added to the article when they are available.

Following the Fed decision to hike the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to the range of 5.25-5.5% at the July policy meeting, Powell said in the post-meeting press conference that they have not made any decisions about any future meeting and reiterated the data-dependent approach. "We believe monetary policy is restrictive,” Powell told reporters and caused investors to refrain from pricing in another rate increase in September.

Since the July meeting, however, macroeconomic data releases from the US fed into expectations that the Fed could still opt for one more rate hike before the end of the year. The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the US expanded at an annualized rate of 2.4% in the second quarter, compared to the market expectation of 1.8%, while the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to 3.2% in July from 3% in June. Although Nonfarm Payrolls rose less than 200,000 in June and July, strong wage inflation readings and the historically low Unemployment Rate of 3.5% reaffirmed that conditions in the labor market remain tight.

According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, investors see a more than 40% probability of the Fed lifting the interest rate one more time by 25 bps before the end of the year. The market positioning suggests that the US Dollar (USD) faces a two-way risk heading into the Jackson Hole event.

In an interview with Yahoo Finance on the sidelines of the Jackson Hole Symposiu on Thursday, Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins said that the may be at a place where the Fed can hold the policy rate steady. Similarly, "right now I think that we've probably done enough and with monetary policy in a restrictive stance" Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker told CNBC.

When is Powell speech at Jackson Hole and how could it affect the USD?

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver a keynote speech titled “Economic Outlook” on the second day of the annual Jackson Hole Symposium. Powell’s speech is scheduled to start at 14:05 GMT. 

In case Powell leaves the door open for one more rate hike, citing sticky core inflation and tight labor market, the US Dollar could start gathering strength against its rivals with the initial reaction. On the other hand, Powell could emphasize the data-dependency and adopt a more cautious tone regarding the growth outlook. Investors are likely to see that as a dovish sign given Harker and Collins' comments from the day before, triggering a USD selloff.

Economists at Deutsche Bank don’t expect Powell to comment on the near-term policy outlook and explain:

“The overall title this year is “Structural Shifts in the Global Economy”, and Chair Powell’s speech on Friday is simply given the heading “Economic Outlook”. Our US economists don’t expect Powell to send strong signals about the near-term policy path. However, recent years have seen Powell deliver some important longer-term policy messages. In particular, last year saw him deliver a fairly short and direct message on the importance of price stability, which left little doubt as to the Fed’s resolve to return inflation to target.”

It’s worth mentioning that experts have already started to forecast Fed rate cuts as early as the second quarter of 2024. A recently conducted Reuters poll showed that a majority 80% of 110 economists do not anticipate any further interest rate hikes by the Fed this year. Moreover, a majority of the respondents expect the Fed to cut interest rates at least once next year, by the end of the second quarter.

Even if Powell doesn’t offer any clues regarding the next interest rate step, he could push back against the rate cut expectations in 2024. In that scenario, the USD could regather strength even if it weakens against its rivals with the initial reaction.