Oil slumps after a smaller decline in US inventories

• Oil (WTI) trades at $78.90,  steering further away from $80.
• The US Dollar gave markets a knee-jerk reaction after surprise US Dollar strength..
• The weekly API numbers were a disappointing drawdown and could push Oil prices further downwards.

Oil prices are trading lower this Wednesday ahead of the weekly important Energy Information Administration (EAI) Crude Oil Stock Changes. The overnight numbers from the American Petroleum Institute came in below estimates and slashed oil prices. The API number printed only a drawdown of -2.418M barrels, where -2.9M was expected. 

Projections of the EAI numbers for Wednesday point to a drawdown for both the high and low estimate. In order to trigger a spike in oil prices, the drawdown this Wednesday needs to beat the highest estimation of -3.1M. The lowest estimation is at -2.39M, so any number between the range or less severe than -2.39M could be translated into cheaper oil as the US stockpiles are under less demand than expected. 

At the time of writing, Crude Oil (WTI) price trades at $78.88 per barrel, Brent Oil at $83.10. 

Oil news and market movers

• The weekly important Energy Information Administration (EAI) Crude Oil Stock Changes are due at 14:30 GMT. Expectations are between -2.39M to -3.1M of drawdowns. Previous number last week was a cut of -5.96M and will be hard to beat. 
• S&P Global will  release its Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the US at 13:45 GMT. The Services Index is expected to stay broadly steady from the previous 52.3 reading and print 52.2 for August. The Manufacturing Index is expected to stay in contraction, moving from 49 to 49.3. The overall Composite Index is expected to be unchanged at 52.0. The numbers will be market moving for Oil as well as  any slowdown in the PMI numbers could mean less demand for oil. 
• Tropical depression Franklin is moving further inland, away from the Texas’ shores. 
• All eyes are focused on Friday, when the annual Jackson Hole Symposium will be the focal point for the week. In the event,  the US Federal Reserve tends to signal a change in its monetary policy going forward. 

Oil Technical Analysis: head and shoulders risk

Oil price is signalling alert messages to the markets after the slump in the weekly API numbers on Tuesday. Oil takes another step back on Wednesday ahead of the weekly EAI numbers, which could act as catalyst for a downward breakout in the head-and-shoulders pattern on the charts. The line in the sand is $78.50, and once broken oil prices could slide as much as 6%.

On the upside, $81.68,  Monday’s high, is the one to beat in order to trigger a small uptrend. Should WTI continue its performance of higher lows and higher highs, pressure could build toward $82. In order to print a fresh monthly high, the peak of mid-August at $84.32 is the one to beat when demand takes over and supply cannot follow suit. 

On the downside, a temporary bottom is being formed around $78.50 and acts as a base in the current head-and-shoulders pattern. Should the EAI numbers point to a weaker oil price, expect to get the shoulders pattern being completed, erasing the weekly gains from July 20. Expect some support near $77 from the double top on July 13, though rather expect the bottom roughly 6% lower near $74.

WTI US OIL (Daily Chart)