Gold price (XAU/USD) is portraying a non-direction performance on Monday as investors await the interest-rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed) for further guidance. The precious metal is expected to continue its lackluster performance as a small interest-rate hike from the Fed is widely expected despite softening inflation and loosening labor market conditions.
There is little doubt among investors that the Fed will increase interest rates to the 5.25-5.50% range as the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is still stubbornly high partly due to the resilience in consumer spending. A catalyst to which investors are keeping an eye is the interest-rate guidance from the Fed. Fed officials and investors have divergent views about where interest rates will peak for the current year as the former signaled that two more interest-rate hikes are appropriate while market participants are expecting that the upcoming interest-rate increase will be the last one this year.
Gold price juggles in a narrow range after a three-day correction from the immediate high of $1,984.00. A mean-reversion is expected in the precious metal toward the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $1,950.00. The yellow metal is under pressure due to a decent recovery in the US Dollar Index.
Momentum oscillators show that the upside impulse has faded. However, the north-side bias looks still solid.
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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