US Dollar edges higher ahead of US housing data

• US Dollar gathers strength against its major rivals midweek.
• US Dollar Index stays in positive territory above 100.00 heading into the American session.
• US housing data will be watched closely by market participants on Wednesday.

The US Dollar (USD) started to outperform its rivals on Wednesday in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD's valuation against a basket of six major currencies, holding in positive territory above 100.00 ahead of the American session.

The USD managed to capture capital outflows out of Pound Sterling early Wednesday after data from the UK showed that inflation softened at a faster pace than expected in June. Moreover, the sharp upsurge seen in the USD/JPY pair following Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's dovish comments highlights strengthening demand for the USD.

The US economic docket will feature Housing Starts and Building Permits data for June. Conditions in the US housing market have been improving consistently on hopes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is closing in on the end of its tightening cycle. 

Daily digest market movers: US Dollar shows signs of life

• Retail Sales in the US rose 0.2% in June to $689.5 billion, the US Census Bureau reported on Tuesday. The 0.3% increase recorded in May had been forecast to reach 0.5%, but the data came in far below. Retail Sales Ex-Autos increased 0.2% in the same period, coming in slightly below the market expectation of 0.3%. 
• Industrial Production in the US contracted 0.5% for the second straight month in June, the US Federal Reserve's monthly publication revealed on Tuesday.
• The annual Consumer Price Index in the UK rose 7.9% in June, down sharply from the 8.7% increase recorded in May. Following the inflation data, markets are leaning toward a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) in August.
• While speaking at the G20 meeting in India on Tuesday, BoJ Governor Ueda said that there was still some distance to sustainably achieve the 2% inflation target. "Unless our assumption on need to sustainably achieve 2% target changes, our narrative on monetary policy won't change," Ueda said, causing the Japanese Yen to lose interest.
• Wall Street's main indexes closed in positive territory on Tuesday. US stock index futures trade modestly higher on the day as investors await earnings figures from big tech firms.
• The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays on the back foot below 3.8% on Wednesday.
• China's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded 6.3% in the second quarter on an annualized basis, according to data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) early Monday. This reading followed the 4.5% growth recorded in the first quarter but came in below the market expectation of 7.3%. Citigroup lowered its full-year growth forecast for China to 5% from 5.5%.
• US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Bloomberg on Monday that there is a good chance that the Biden administration will go ahead with outbound investment controls on China.
• The US Dollar weakened significantly last week as soft inflation data from the US revived expectations about the Federal Reserve reaching the terminal rate with a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike in July.
• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US rose 3% on a yearly basis in June, following the 4% increase recorded in May. The annual Producer Price Index (PPI) edged 0.1% higher in the same period.
• Commenting on the USD's outlook: "In case of an increasingly rapid fall in inflation and weakening economic data, the market might increasingly rely on key rates not remaining at high levels for a long time, whereas rate cuts before the end of the year are becoming increasingly likely," said Antje Praefcke, FX Analyst at Commerzbank. "That would cause the USD to ease further." 
• The University of Michigan reported on Friday that the Consumer Sentiment Index improved to 72.6 in July's flash estimate from 64.4 in June.
• Markets are nearly fully pricing in a 25 bps Fed rate increase in July. The probability of one more rate hike in December stands at around 20%, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

Technical analysis: US Dollar Index looks to extend correction

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart rose above 30 on Wednesday, suggesting that the US Dollar Index (DXY) started to correct the oversold conditions. 101.00 (former support, static level) could be seen as the next recovery target ahead of 101.50 (static level) and 101.90 (20-day Simple Moving Average).

On the downside, critical support is located at 100.00 (psychological level). If DXY fails to make a daily close above that level, buyers could refrain from betting on a steady rebound. In that case, 99.20 (static level from March 2022) aligns as next support before 99.00 (psychological level) and 98.30 (200-week Simple Moving Average).