Pound Sterling rallies past 1.3000 as risk-on mood outperforms weak UK factory activities

• Pound Sterling has jumped above the psychological resistance of 1.3000 amid an upbeat market mood.
• United Kingdom’s manufacturing activities are facing pressure from higher interest rates by the BoE.
• Britain’s monthly Industrial and Manufacturing Production have contracted by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) has climbed above the 1.3000 psychological resistance, continuing its five-day winning spell despite the rising burden of higher interest rates by the Bank of England (BoE) on the United Kingdom’s manufacturing sector. The GBP/USD pair has been filled with an adrenaline rush as the market mood has turned extremely cheerful, and the BoE is expected to continue its policy-tightening spell in spite of building pressure on the economic outlook.

United Kingdom’s Industrial and Manufacturing Production are contracting as firms are avoiding making applications for fresh credit to dodge higher interest obligations. Subdued manufacturing activities and rising jobless claims are meaningful signs of the heavy burden of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Bank of England.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Pound Sterling ignores weak factory activity data

• United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics has reported a contraction in monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) May figures by 0.1% against the consensus of a 0.3% contraction. In April, monthly GDP expanded by 0.2%.
• Monthly Industrial Production surprisingly contracted heavily by 0.6% vs. expectations of 0.4% contractions and the prior release of -0.2%. Annualized economic data has matched expectations of a 2.3% contraction.
• Manufacturing Production has landed better than expectations but remains in a contraction phase. This economic indicator has been recorded at -0.2% against estimates of -0.5% and the prior release of -0.1%. Also, annual figures remained well-better than expectations but weaker than the previous figure.
• The burden of higher interest rates by the Bank of England is visible in the manufacturing sector.
• This week, Britain’s employment report came full of surprises. Three-month Unemployment Rate jumped to 4.0% against the estimates and the former release of 3.8%.
• Jobless claims rose by 25.7K in June against a decline of 22.5K reported in May as firms said no to fresh credit to avoid high-interest rate obligations.
• Policymakers at the Bank of England (BoE) got uncomfortable after three-month Average Earnings excluding bonuses (May) maintained the pace at 7.3% while investors were anticipating a decline to 7.1%.
• Steady wage pressures were sufficient to offset the cool down in the labor market report and kept the chances of continuation of the policy-tightening spell elevated.
• UK’s Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) has reported that new buyer inquiries for the property have slowed sharply. Higher borrowing costs charged by commercial banks in a highly-inflated environment are making the real estate sector vulnerable.
• In a press conference on Wednesday, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey conveyed, "The UK economy and financial system have so far been resilient to interest rate risk," as reported by Reuters.
• The Bank of England has already raised interest rates to 5% and financial markets are expecting that interest rates will peak around 6.5%.
• Market sentiment is extremely bullish as inflation in the United States has decelerated beyond expectations. The monthly headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported a moderate pace of 0.2%.
• Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President Neel Kashkari cited that policy rates are needed to raise further and supervisors must ensure that banks are prepared to run new high-inflation stress tests to identify at-risk banks and size individual capital shortfalls.",
• Per the CME Fedwatch tool, investors are hoping that July’s interest rate hike would be the last nail in the coffin this year.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) has nosedived below 100.50 after surprisingly soft inflation that has squeezed fears of a recession in the United States.

Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling eyes Rising Channel breakout

Pound Sterling looks strong enough to sustain above the psychological resistance of 1.3000. The strength in the Cable is coming from a vertical sell-off in the US Dollar Index after the soft inflation report. The Cable has continued its five-day winning spell and is approaching the upper portion of the Rising Channel chart pattern for a confident breakout. Short-to-long-term daily Exponential Moving Averages (DEMAs) are upward-sloping, indicating firmness in the upside bias.

Investors should wait for a corrective move to build fresh long positions as the current market positioning brings an unfavorable risk-reward status.