The US Dollar (USD) is enjoying the inflow seen since Thursday after a very choppy trading session. Upside inflation surprises in European countries made the Euro outperform the Greenback for most part of the European session, while US Gross Domestic Product numbers wiped recession fears off the table and made the Greenback the flavor of the day again. Overnight, People’s Bank of China (PBoC), the Chinese central bank, issued again a much stronger fixing for its Yuan against the US Dollar, but markets are ignoring it in full, sending USD/CNY up to possibly set a new six-month high on Friday. There are no real trends to distillate on the quote board as the US Dollar posts modest gains against most currencies.
There aren’t any Federal Reserve (Fed) speaking on Friday, so traders can mainly go into data-trading. At 12:30 GMT, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index numbers will come out. This is the preferred inflation measure for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to assess how or where inflation is at the moment in the US. Later, the Chicago Purchase Managers Index is due at 13:45 GMT, while at 14:00 GMT the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for June will be released. Depending on their outcome, these two data points could support some more follow-through on the current trend in the US Dollar or trigger a turnaround.
The US Dollar trades overall very much in the green against the most common currencies, with one or two outliers. No real symmetry to be noticed either as we have seen the past week, when often Asia was weaker while currencies in Central and Eastern Europe were substantially stronger.. Expect for traders to keep their powder dry and see the US Dollar index reside where it is at the moment, near Thursday’s high at 103.40.
On the upside, look for 103.50 as the next key resistance level in order to lock in some solid support and a safe region where the Dollar index can take a breather before heading higher. The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 104.98 is still quite far away. So the intermediary level to look for is the psychological level at 104.00 and May 31 peak at 104.70.
On the downside, the 55-day SMA near 102.67 is up for proving its reliability as a support after being chopped up that much in the last two weeks. A touch lower, 102.50 will be vital to hold from a psychological point of view. In case the DXY slips below 102.50, more weakness is expected with a full slide to 102.00 and a retest of June’s low at 101.92.
The US Dollar Index, also known as DXY or USDX, is a benchmark index that was established by the US Federal Reserve in 1973. DXY is widely used as a tool measuring the US Dollar (USD) value in global markets. The index is calculated by measuring the US Dollar’s performance against a basket of six foreign currencies, the Euro, the Japanese Yen (JPY), Swedish Krona (SEK), the British Pound (GBP), the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Canadian Dollar (CAD).
With 57.6%, the Euro has the biggest weight in the index followed by the JPY (13.6%), GBP (11.9%), CAD (9.1%), SEK (4.2%), and CHF (3.6%). Hence, a sharp decline in the EUR/USD pair could help the US Dollar Index rise even if the US Dollar weakens against some of the other currencies in the basket.
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