Natural Gas price trades a touch higher on Monday after pulling back from its highs. The commodity continues to be supported by hotter-than-usual weather in most of the US and Europe, which increases demand for Natural Gas used to power air conditioning. Gas prices may lack the energy to go much higher, however, as data from the futures market suggest falling market participation in the rally.
XNG/USD is trading in the $2.800s MMBtu at the start of the US session on Monday.
Natural Gas price has recovered to close to a key trend-determination level on longer-term charts. Although the commodity remains in a long-term downtrend since turning lower at the August 2022 peak, bearish momentum has tapered off considerably.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator is converging bullishly with price on the weekly chart, something that occurs when price makes new lows but RSI fails to copy.
A break above the last lower high of the long-term downtrend at $3.079 MMBtu would indicate a reversal in the broader trend.
Natural Gas: Weekly Chart
Given this level has not been breached yet, however, the downtrend remains intact and a break below the $2.110 year-to-date lows would provide a confirmation of a continuation down to a target at $1.546. This target is the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the height of the roughly sideways consolidation range that has been unfolding during 2023.
On the daily chart, price has been climbing within a roughly sideways market, although it has broken above both the 50 and not the 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), which is a significant bullish sign.
Natural Gas: Daily Chart
Nevertheless, a break above the last lower high of the long-term downtrend at $3.079 MMBtu would be required to indicate a reversal in the broader trend.
Such a move might then see prices rally higher to the next key resistance level at the 200-week SMA, situated at $3.813.
Supply and demand dynamics are a key factor influencing Natural Gas prices, and are themselves influenced by global economic growth, industrial activity, population growth, production levels, and inventories. The weather impacts Natural Gas prices because more Gas is used during cold winters and hot summers for heating and cooling. Competition from other energy sources impacts prices as consumers may switch to cheaper sources. Geopolitical events are factors as exemplified by the war in Ukraine. Government policies relating to extraction, transportation, and environmental issues also impact prices.
The main economic release influencing Natural Gas prices is the weekly inventory bulletin from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), a US government agency that produces US gas market data. The EIA Gas bulletin usually comes out on Thursday at 14:30 GMT, a day after the EIA publishes its weekly Oil bulletin. Economic data from large consumers of Natural Gas can impact supply and demand, the largest of which include China, Germany and Japan. Natural Gas is primarily priced and traded in US Dollars, thus economic releases impacting the US Dollar are also factors.
The US Dollar is the world’s reserve currency and most commodities, including Natural Gas are priced and traded on international markets in US Dollars. As such, the value of the US Dollar is a factor in the price of Natural Gas, because if the Dollar strengthens it means less Dollars are required to buy the same volume of Gas (the price falls), and vice versa if USD strengthens.
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