AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bears keep the reins near 0.6500 ahead of Aussie Retail Sales

• AUD/USD stays depressed at the lowest levels since November 2022 after falling in the last three consecutive days.
• Break of six-month-old descending trend line, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement joins bearish MACD signals to lure sellers.
• Oversold RSI, market’s consolidation amid US debt ceiling jitters prod Aussie pair sellers.
• Australia Retail Sales growth expected to ease in April, may allow bears to refresh yearly low.

AUD/USD renews the lowest level in six months as it takes offers to 0.6500 during early Friday in Asia. In doing so, the Aussie pair bears the burden of the broad US Dollar strength, as well as downbeat hopes about the Australian Retail Sales data for April, likely to ease to 0.2% MoM versus 0.4% prior.

Technically, a daily closing below the 0.6550 support confluence, now resistance, joins the bearish MACD signals to keep the AUD/USD sellers hopeful. That said, a downward-sloping trend line from late November 2022 and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the AUD/USD pair’s run-up from October 2022 to February 2023 constitute the 0.6550 key upside hurdle.

Even if the Aussie pair manage to cross the 0.6550 resistance confluence, a fortnight-old falling resistance line, close to 0.6615 by the press time, can prod the buyers before giving them control.

Above all, AUD/USD remains on the bear’s radar until it provides a daily close beyond the 100-DMA level of 0.6775.

Meanwhile, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of around 0.6385 appears the key support for the AUD/USD bears to watch amid the oversold RSI (14). Also acting as a downside filter is the 0.6400 round figure.

AUD/USD: Daily chart

Trend: Further downside expected