Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD trades with modest losses above $2,000, downside seems limited

• Gold price meets with a fresh supply on Thursday, though the downside remains limited
• Hawkish Federal Reserve expectations drive some flow away from the non-yielding metal.
• Looming recession fears lend support to the XAU/USD amid a modest US Dollar weakness.

Gold price struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest uptick and comes under some renewed selling pressure on Tuesday. The XAU/USD, however, manages to bounce off the daily low and hold above the $2,000 psychological mark through the first half of the European session.

Looming recession risks lend support to Gold price

The market sentiment remains fragile in the wake of a standoff to raise the federal government's borrowing limit, which, along with weaker-than-expected Chinese macro data, fuel recession fears and benefit the safe-haven Gold price. In fact, US President Joe Biden expressed confidence that a deal could be done in time ahead of an expected meeting with congressional leaders later this Tuesday. Republican House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy, however, said the two sides were still far apart. Apart from this, signs that the post-COVID recovery in China - the world's second-largest economy - is losing steam temper investors' appetite for perceived riskier assets.

A weaker US Dollar contributes to limiting losses for XAU/USD

The anti-risk flow, along with concerns about the US debt ceiling, trigger a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields, which is seen weighing on the US Dollar (USD) for the second successive day. A weaker Greenback lends additional support to the US Dollar-denominated Gold price. However, fresh speculations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will stick to its hawkish stance in the wake of a rise in consumer inflation expectations contribute to the offered tone surrounding the non-yielding yellow metal. it is worth recalling that the Michigan survey showed last Friday that consumers see prices over the next five years climbing at an annual rate of 3.2% - the highest level since 2011.

Hawkish Fed expectations could cap the upside for Gold price

Adding to this, a slew of Fed officials warned on Monday that interest rates could still rise further amid relatively high inflation and a robust labor market. This could act as a tailwind for the US bond yields and the USD, supporting prospects for a further near-term downside for Gold price. Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the release of monthly Retail Sales figures and industrial production data, due later during the early North American session. Apart from this, Fedspeaks could produce short-term trading opportunities around the XAU/USD. The focus, however, will remain glued to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday.

Gold price technical outlook

From a technical perspective, acceptance below the $2,000 mark will expose the $1,980 horizontal zone. This is closely followed by support near the $1,970 region, which if broken decisively might shift the near-term bias in favour of bearish traders and make the Gold price vulnerable to prolong its recent corrective pullback from the all-time high, around the $2,078-$2,079 area touched earlier this month. On the flip side, the $2,020-$2,021 region now seems to have emerged as an immediate hurdle. The next relevant resistance is pegged near the $2,035-$2,040 region. Some follow-through should allow Gold to climb back towards the all-time high and extend the momentum further towards conquering the $2,100 round-figure mark.

Key levels to watch