Pound Sterling supported above 1.25 after Gross Domestic Product confirms UK avoids a recession

• Pound Sterling vs US Dollar falls by over 100 pips on “Super Thursday”. 
• BoE Governor Bailey suggests inflation may show a sharp fall in April data, UK growth data paints a more optimistic picture.
• US Dollar strengthens on safe-haven flows after PacWest records large deposit outflows, renewing banking jitters. 

The Pound Sterling (GBP) finds a floor after dropping off a cliff against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, following the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy meeting. GBP/USD is currently trading in the lower 1.25s, trading slightly higher after UK GDP data confirms the country has averted a feared recession.  

The pair fell on Thursday after the Bank of England published its decision, and deepened its decline following BoE Chairman Andrew Bailey’s dovish opening comments. Although it recovered later in the press conference as Bailey moderated his tone, GBP/USD ended the day just above 1.2500, as a further factor – renewed banking crisis woes – took its toll. 

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is showing short-term bearish signs but overall remains in a long-term uptrend, advantaging long over short holders. 

GBP/USD market movers

• The Pound Sterling finds its feet after a sharp downswing following the release of UK GDP data, which it had been feared would show the UK falling into a recession. 
• Quarterly GDP, however, came out positive at 0.1%, in line with estimates. GDP YoY showed a 0.2% rise, also in line with forecasts. The month-on-month figure, however, showed a below-expectations decline of -0.3% when a 0.1% rise had been expected. 
• On Thursday, a combination of dovish commentary at the BoE meeting and renewed banking crisis fears, supporting safe-haven flows to the US Dollar, led to a sharp decline in GBP/USD on Thursday. 
• GBP/USD initially fell following the BoE’s announcement of its decision by a vote of 7-2 (the same ratio as last meeting) to raise interest rates by 0.25% bringing the Bank Rate to 4.50%.
• The pair continued lower after BoE Chairman Andrew Bailey said, “The committee had good reason to believe headline inflation would fall considerably from April onwards”. 
• Although the Pound Sterling recovered later when Bailey emphasized secondary effects and how “risks to inflation continue to be skewed to the upside as secondary effects persist”. 
• GBP/USD renewed its sell-off after the US Dollar strengthened on safe-haven demand following the release of a securities filing by struggling US lender PacWest renewed US banking crisis fears. The filing revealed that the bank’s deposits had dropped nearly 10%, leading to a 20% sell-off in the bank's shares. 
• Headline inflation in the UK is at 10.1% which is more than double the 4.9% reading in the US. US and UK Core inflation are more similar, however, with US at 6.2% versus 5.5% in the UK. Nevertheless it suggests the UK will have to continue raising rates after the Federal Reserve (Fed) has stopped. This should benefit GBP over USD as global investors favor currencies with higher interest rates to park their money.
• The CME Group FedWatch Tool is showing a 90% probability of no further interest rate hikes by the Fed. 
• In addition, the Fed removed wording from its last statement saying that further monetary tightening would be appropriate if conditions warranted. The BoE, on the other hand, kept similar wording in its statement. 
• The US Dollar is at risk from US debt ceiling default risk. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned on Thursday that a US default on a failure to raise the debt ceiling would produce an "economic and financial catastrophe." Most analysts believe this would be USD-negative. 
• The main release for the US Dollar on Friday is Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index which is forecast to fall to 63.0 in May for its preliminary reading. 

GBP/USD technical analysis: Shooting star reversal receives confirmation

GBP/USD sells off to 1.2500 and shows signs it may extend lower, however, this does not change the broadly bullish long-term picture. The uptrend remains intact as long as the 1.2435 May lows hold, and thus still favors Pound Sterling longs over shorts, for now. 

GBP/USD: Daily Chart

On Wednesday, the market formed a shooting star Japanese candlestick reversal pattern on GBP/USD, indicating the possibility of a short-term bearish reversal. The pattern gained confirmation after Thursday’s bearish close. The expectation is for more downside in the short-term, probably to support at the base of the rising channel/wedge, located at around 1.2475. 

GBP/USD: Daily Chart

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is falling sharply after showing mild bearish divergence between price at the May peaks and RSI. This is indicative of underlying weakness, and further suggests more short-term downside.

That said, given the overall trend is bullish, the GBP/USD exchange rate will probably recover and continue rallying. The May 2022 highs at 1.2665 provide the first resistance level, but once breached they open the way to the 100-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) situated at 1.2713, and finally at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2021-22 bear market, at 1.2758. All provide potential upside targets for the pair. Each level will need to be decisively breached to open the door to the next. Likewise for the bull trend to reverse, the 1.2435 lows will need to be decisively breached. 

Decisive breaks are characterized by long daily candles that break through key resistance levels in question and close near their highs or lows of the day (depending on whether the break is bullish or bearish). Alternatively, three consecutive candles that break through the level can also be decisive. Such insignia provide confirmation that the break is not a ‘false break’ or bull/bear trap.