Price pressures in Eurozone remain muted – Nordea

Inge Klaver, an analyst at Nordea Markets, notes that Eurozone’s headline HICP inflation continued to lose momentum and came out at 0.9% y/y in September, below expectations.

• “Headline inflation continues the downward course of the last few months. The y/y reading came in at 0.9%. Headline is trending down on the back of lower energy prices, while food prices contributed positively.
• As expected, Euro-area core inflation bounced back up to 1.0% y/y in September. This was mainly driven by an increase in service price inflation, which partly stems from an increase in package holiday prices as suggested by preliminary data from Germany released yesterday.
• We continue to expect underlying inflationary pressures to build, but very gradually.
• The September inflation is unlikely to be a key variable when the ECB makes its next moves. The economic outlook is requiring more attention than short-term movements in the inflation rate right now. Current weak growth numbers will weaken price pressures in the future and are posing downside risks to the already-well-below-target ECB staff inflation projections.
• For now, markets are awaiting Lagarde’s first speech as an ECB president. We still expect another easing package in December.”