Citigroup says gold may top record

Gold prices may rally to a record above $2,000 an ounce in the next two years, according to Citigroup Inc., which gave a laundry list of positive drivers including rising risks of a global recession and the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will reduce U.S. interest rates to zero.

“We expect spot gold prices to trade stronger for longer, possibly breaching $2,000 an ounce and posting new cyclical highs at some point in the next year or two,” analysts including Aakash Doshi said. That would exceed the record of $1,921.17 set in 2011.

Low or lower-for-longer nominal and real interest rates; global recession risks -- exacerbated by U.S.-China trade tensions; and heightened geopolitical rifts are “combining to buttress a bullish gold market environment,” the bank said. Also, “in affinity to our U.S. rates research colleagues, we believe the Fed will ultimately end up cutting rates all the way to zero,” the analysts wrote.

“For now, the U.S. consumer and potential growth story is holding up,” Citi said in the note. However, “we remain more concerned about market signals -- three-month to 10-year yield curve inversion -- and leading indicators that are weakening at the fastest pace since the Great Recession,” it said.