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- Harris and Weak U.S Labour Market Are Pushing the Dollar to the Downside
Harris and Weak U.S Labour Market Are Pushing the Dollar to the Downside
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen 0.4% to
103.89 this week as the EURUSD rose 0.66% to 1.09050, showing potential for
further upside. This marks the Dollar’s first weekly decline after four
straight gains, pressured by disappointing October Nonfarm Payrolls data, which
came in at a low 12,000 versus the expected 106,000. Although weak ISM
manufacturing PMI of 46.5 and Middle Eastern tensions briefly lifted the Dollar
on Friday, disappointing macro data overall is weighing on it.
Market sentiment is now influenced by rising
election probabilities, with Kamala Harris's potential win viewed as a bearish
factor for the Dollar, while a Trump win is expected to strengthen it. The EURUSD faces key resistance at
1.09200-1.09400; breaking this level could propel the pair towards
1.10000-1.11000. The upcoming U.S. presidential election
and central bank rate decisions from the Fed and BoE on Thursday could drive
volatility, particularly as both banks are expected to cut rates by 0.25%. The BoE may hint at pausing cuts, which could
support the GBPUSD, potentially lifting it from 1.29800 to 1.32500.
In the market, large investors have shown
minimal movement, with the WisdomTree Bloomberg US Dollar Bullish Fund (USDU)
maintaining a neutral balance over the last two weeks. However, a notable $25.7
million position remains in favor of Dollar weakness, possibly aiming for the
EURUSD to reach 1.10500-1.11000, as the broader Dollar outlook softens amid
evolving macroeconomic and political uncertainties.
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