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- The Fed Is Set to Make Its Move
The Fed Is Set to Make Its Move
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has seen a slight
decline of 0.30% to 100.61 points this week, while the EUR/USD pair climbed by 0.60%
to 1.11400, nearing its recent high. Investors are keenly watching the Federal
Reserve’s upcoming decision, speculating a possible half-point rate cut. This
aggressive rate cut appears overestimated given the current mixed economic
indicators, especially with core inflation showing some persistence.
The idea of a half-point cut is seen by some,
like former New York Fed President William Dudley, as necessary due to
potential labor market deterioration. However, other factors, such as the
broader slowing of consumer and producer prices, make such a cut seem too
drastic. Investors are wary of the implications: a half-point cut could
temporarily weaken the dollar and drive stocks higher, but also stoke concerns
about an economic downturn, which would likely strengthen the dollar later on.
Technically, if the EUR/USD falls below 1.10000,
it may signal further gains for the U.S. Dollar. On the other hand, should the
Fed opt for a smaller, quarter-point cut, the Greenback is expected to regain
strength.
Large investors seem cautious, with only
modest outflows of $2.7 million reported from WisdomTree’s USDU, reflecting a
wait-and-see approach. The tension in the markets is high, and the outcome of
the Fed meeting will likely set the direction for both the currency and stock
markets.
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