The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) is losing 0.1% to
104.33 this week, while the EURUSD is declining by 0.1% to 1.08700. Major
currencies are mixed, with commodity-driven currencies like the Australian, New
Zealand, and Canadian Dollars weakening against the Greenback by 0.3-0.8% due
to deteriorating commodity prices. The Euro and the British Pound are more
stable relative to the Dollar, while the Yen is rising by 1.1%. Interestingly,
investors are increasing demand for the Japanese currency without any support from
the Bank of Japan. This may signal rising risks in the financial market.
Investors may be reacting to the pullbacks in
the S&P 500 broad market index, potentially closing positions on American
stocks and repaying their cheap borrowings in Japan. Alternatively, some
investors might be anticipating possible monetary tightening by the Bank of
Japan, with a meeting scheduled for July 31.
The second option deserves close attention.
According to WisdomTree Bloomberg US Dollar Bullish Fund (USDU), large investors
have made a big bet on the weakening of the Dollar by withdrawing $60.4 million
from the Fund, marking the largest net outflow since late June 2023. At that
time, the Dollar lost 3.4% against the Euro within a month. A similar situation
occurred in mid-May 2023, when the Dollar initially rose by 1.0%, then lost
almost 3.0% against the Euro.
If the situation repeats itself, August could
be bad for the Dollar, and the EURUSD may resume climbing towards
1.10000-1.11000. However, first, the pair has to retest the 1.08000-1.08300
support. It appears unlikely that this support will break to the downside, so
long trades for the EURUSD are likely to be considered at this level.
Good entry points could emerge next week if
the Federal Reserve (Fed) signals possible interest rate cuts in September. An
official approval of Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee for President in
August could increase the chances of a Democratic candidate entering the White
House, potentially weakening the Dollar amid declining prospects for another
Trumponomic cycle. This could be another opportunity for the bearish bets on
the Dollar.
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