The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is rising by 0.1%
to 105.05 points, while the EURUSD is down by 0.1% to 1.08210. This mirrors the
market situation from last Tuesday, although the Dollar is weaker by 1.0% now.
Last week, the Greenback was recovering
following the first round results of the French parliamentary election. The
American currency lost another 0.7% to 1.08160 on weak Nonfarm Payrolls by ADP
and a U.S. Services PMI that fell to 49.6 points, indicating a contraction of
the sector. The cooling of the American economy was confirmed by the June
Labour Market Report, where unemployment unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, while
Nonfarm Payrolls hit 206,000, above the consensus.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields dropped to 4.27%,
down from 4.40%, and slightly recovered to 4.29% this week. Bets on a rate cut
by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September increased to 77.1% from 64.1%.
Investors believe that the Fed will have to cut rates in September, and Fed
Chair Jerome Powell might address this during his testimony to Congress on
Tuesday or Wednesday. If Powell hints at a potential rate cut, the EURUSD could
surpass the resistance at 1.08300-1.08500 and aim for 1.10000. Conversely, if
Powell maintains a hawkish stance, indicating persistent inflation issues, the
EURUSD could fall towards 1.05000.
Wall Street expects the PCI index to slow to
3.1% YoY in June from 3.3% in May. However, a 5% rise in oil prices in June
could challenge these expectations, potentially causing inflation to rise
again. Large investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach. The WisdomTree
Bloomberg US Dollar Bullish Fund (USDU) reported a neutral balance of fund
inflows last week after three weeks of net outflows and one week of net
inflows. Large investors were observed taking profits at 1.06600-1.06700 for
the EURUSD and slightly increased their bullish positions for the Dollar as the
EURUSD rose to 1.07000. They are now waiting for Powell to provide further
direction.
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