Brent crude prices have increased by 3.7% to $82.50 per barrel,
after slightly retreating from $83.48 per barrel on June 12. This recent price
fluctuation followed a disappointing Federal Reserve (Fed) dot plot forward
guidance, which now includes only one expected interest rate cut this year
instead of the three cuts forecasted in March.
The U.S. May consumer price index (CPI) unexpectedly
decreased to 3.3% YoY from 3.4% in April, and to 0.0% MoM against an expected
0.1% MoM. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also fell to
3.4% YoY from 3.6% and monthly reading dropped to 0.2% from 0.3%. This CPI data
led to a weakening of the Dollar by almost 1.0%, which initially boosted oil
prices. However, the Fed's hawkish stance, despite the decline in inflation,
sent mixed signals to the market. Policymakers raised inflation expectations
for 2024 to 2.8% YoY from 2.8%, contradicting the recent inflation decrease.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that not all Fed members had time to fully
digest the new data, which seemed unconvincing given the Fed's access to
comprehensive macroeconomic information before publication.
Following the Fed's announcement, oil prices stumbled, and
the Dollar recovered almost half of its losses incurred after the inflation
numbers were released. Brent crude prices, while formally climbing above the
$82.00 per barrel mark, indicate a potential downside reversal, likely driven
by elevated volatility. Large investors share this sentiment, as evidenced by
the net capital outflows of $93.4 million from the United States Oil Fund (USO)
this week, compared to net inflows of $136.7 million the previous week. This
suggests skepticism about further price increases, especially after a 7.0% rise
from the lows on June 4.
The oil market remains uncertain. The American Petroleum
Institute (API) reported a decrease in oil reserves by 2.42 million barrels,
while the Energy Information Administration (EIA) observed a rise in oil
inventories by 3.73 million barrels. Additionally, the International Energy
Agency (IEA) warns of a significant oil supply surplus this decade, contrasting
with OPEC and EIA forecasts of decreasing oil production in 2024. Given this
uncertainty, Brent crude prices are likely to stay close to the support zone of
$80.00-82.00 per barrel.
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