Forex-novosti i prognoze od 31-01-2020

FXStreet reports that according to Josh Nye, Senior Economist at Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) Economics, a modest upside surprise in November GDP does little to change the narrative that Canada's economy stagnated in Q4/19 – the BoC's 0.3% growth forecast still looks reasonable.

“Transitory factors were at play again in November, most significantly in the transportation sector which suffered from labour disruptions and pipeline outages. That drag should be reversed in December, though the transportation industry is now facing further challenges with some airlines canceling flights to China amid the coronavirus outbreak. Transportation disruptions also weighed on some manufacturing industries in November, which offset a rebound in motor vehicle production following temporary shutdowns in October.”

“While it's difficult to untangle the myriad transitory factors that impacted growth in the second half of last year (the attached graph is our attempt) we think it's fair to say that Canada's economy geared down over that period, and particularly in Q4/19. As BoC Governor Poloz said last week, that has opened the door to a rate cut. The bank's next meeting in March is a live one, though today's data doesn't exactly call for urgent action and our forecast remains for an April rate cut. What could tip the balance, though, is the evolving economic impact of the coronavirus (both here and abroad), and how much of a rebound we see in December's activity indicators.”

FXStreet reports that following Friday’s release of the Canadian monthly GDP growth figures, Mazen Issa, Senior FX Strategist at TD Securities (TDS), suggests taking profits on long USDCAD trade.

“We implemented this on January 10 on the basis that the market had underappreciated the domestic slowdown in early Q4 data that implied the economy may have contracted in that period. This, we thought, would eventually force the Bank of Canada to turn dovish and cut the overnight rate by the April meeting.”

“As it turns out, the data has worsened and the BOC flipped dovish at its recent meeting where they markedly lowered their near-term projections. Today's industry-level GDP report was a touch better than expected but will not alter the need for BOC easing.”

“Going forward we think USDCAD can remain elevated near the 1.33 mark as uncertainty over the growth impact from supply chain disruptions of 2019-nCoV unfolds. This could keep risk appetite in check. Moreover, the OIS curve should sustain pricing for easing by mid-year, though the market currently expects more than a cut by year-end - which may be too grand of an expectation at this point.”

“Tactically, our FV and positioning dashboard suggest that the CAD may have run its weaker course for now. We also think we may have neared or passed peak pessimism in data surprises.”

The final reading for the January Reuters/Michigan index of consumer sentiment came in at 99.8 compared to a preliminary reading of 99.1 and the December final reading of 99.3. That was the highest reading since May 2019.

Economists had forecast the index to be unrevised at 99.1.

According to the report, the index of the current economic conditions fell to 114.4 from December's final reading of 115.5.

Meanwhile, the index of consumer expectations rose to 90.5 from December's final reading of 88.9.

The report notes that impeachment hearing had a barely noticeable impact on economic expectations.

"The maintenance of consumer sentiment near cyclical peak levels is surprising given the overall slow pace of economic growth, which was accompanied in January by renewed military engagements in the Mideast, an impeachment trial in the Senate, and a fast spreading coronavirus," noted Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin. "The resilience of consumers is remarkable and due to record low unemployment, record gains in income and wealth, as well as near record lows in inflation and interest rates," he added.

MNI Indicators' report revealed on Friday that business activity in Chicago decreases to the lowest since late 2015 in January.

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer, also known as Chicago purchasing manager's index (PMI) came in at 42.9 in January 2020, down from a revised 48.2 in December 2019 (originally 48.9). That was the lowest level since December 2015.

Economists had forecast the index to come in at 48.8.

A reading above 50 indicates improving conditions, while a reading below this level shows the worsening of the situation.

According to the report, all five major components of the headline index decline m-o-m in January. Orders fell 6.1 points to 41.5, while Production dropped 3.8 points to 42.7, the lowest level since July 2019, as demand weakened at the beginning of 2020. Order Backlogs declined 10.1 points to a four-year low of 34.6, registering the largest monthly fall. Inventories decreased by 5.8 points to 40.2, the lowest level since May 2016. Meanwhile, employment remained broadly unchanged with the index decreasing by only 0.2 points to 47.0, and Supplier Deliveries edged down to 53.3 in January, remaining the only one among the five major components, which stays above the 50-mark.

FXStreet reports that analysts at Rabobank offered a review of Friday's Eurozone GDP figures, which showed that the economy grew by 0.1% q-o-q in the fourth quarter of 2019 as against consensus expectations of 0.2% q-o-q.

“We will have to wait until February for the official breakdown by components of GDP growth. From the growth figures from individual member states we cannot point out an obvious component that contributed hugely to economic growth in the Eurozone. Although it looks like net exports no longer dragged down economic growth as they did in previous quarters. This obviously implies that growth of domestic demand slowed down further.”

“Looking forward, PMIs and sentiment indicators suggest this quarter might be better than the previous one, but a significant acceleration is unlikely. For the year as a whole, we expect the Eurozone economy to grow at a slightly slower pace than last year’s: we forecast growth of (slightly under) 1.0% for this year and 0.8% next year, after 1.2% in 2019.”

“Growth will primarily be driven by domestic demand. Domestic demand is supported by a strong labor market, real wage growth and high consumer confidence, albeit at a slightly deteriorating pace going forward. We forecast a recession in the US end-2020, which will hurt the entire global economy. The recently signed phase-one deal slightly eases tensions for the time-being, but does not materially improve our outlook. Especially not since we expect tensions to re-escalate in the course of 2020. Ongoing uncertainty and a harder-than-foreseen Brexit end-2020 could also turn out to be a growth-dampener in 2020/2021.”

U.S. stock-index futures fell on Friday, as concerns over the impact of the fast-spreading coronavirus on China's economy overshadowed the latest batch of upbeat quarterly corporate earnings.

Global Stocks:

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Statistics Canada announced on Friday that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) edged up 0.1 percent m-o-m in November, following a 0.1 percent decline in October. That was above economists' forecast for a flat m-o-m.

According to the report, 15 of 20 industrial sectors recorded gains in November, led by utilities (+2.1 percent m-o-m), construction sector (+0.5 percent m-o-m), retail trade (+0.5 percent m-o-m). Meanwhile, notable declines were registered in the mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction (-1.4 percent m-o-m) and transportation and warehousing (-0.9 percent m-o-m) sectors, influenced partly by disruptions in rail transportation service and crude oil pipeline transportation.

In y-o-y terms, the Canadian GDP rose 1.5 percent in November.

Uber (UBER) initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan; target $51

United Tech (UTX) initiated with a Buy at The Benchmark Company; target $186

Chevron (CVX) reported Q4 FY 2019 earnings of $1.49 per share (versus $1.95 per share in Q4 FY 2018), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $1.46 per share.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $36.350 bln (-14.2% y/y), missing analysts' consensus estimate of $38.982 bln.

CVX fell to $109.90 (-1.35%) in pre-market trading.

The Commerce Department reported on Friday that consumer spending in the U.S. rose 0.3 percent m-o-m in December, following an unrevised 0.4 percent m-o-m gain in November. Economists had forecast the reading to show a 0.3 percent m-o-m growth.

Meanwhile, consumer income increased 0.2 percent m-o-m in December, following a revised 0.4 percent m-o-m advance in the previous month (originally a 0.5 percent m-o-m climb). Economists had forecast a 0.3 percent m-o-m gain.

The December advance in personal income primarily reflected gains in compensation of employees and personal interest income that were partially offset by a drop in farm proprietors' income.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile categories of food and energy, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, went up 0.2 percent m-o-m in December, following a 0.1 percent m-o-m uptick in the prior month. Economists had projected the index would rise 0.1 percent m-o-m.

In the 12 months through December, the core PCE increased 1.6 percent, following a revised 1.6 percent growth in the 12 months through November (originally a 1.6 percent increase). Economists had forecast a gain of 1.6 percent y-o-y.

Honeywell (HON) reported Q4 FY 2019 earnings of $2.06 per share (versus $1.91 per share in Q4 FY 2018), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $2.04 per share.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $9.496 bln (-2.4% y/y), missing analysts' consensus estimate of $9.622 bln.

HON fell to $175.01 (-1.87%) in pre-market trading.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) reported Q4 FY 2019 earnings of $0.41 per share (versus $1.41 per share in Q4 FY 2018), missing analysts' consensus estimate of $0.45 per share.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $67.173 bln (-6.6% y/y), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $64.576 bln.

XOM fell to $64.10 (-1.06%) in pre-market trading.

Caterpillar (CAT) reported Q4 FY 2019 earnings of $2.63 per share (versus $2.55 per share in Q4 FY 2018), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $2.38 per share.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $13.144 bln (-8.4% y/y), missing analysts' consensus estimate of $13.426 bln.

The company also issued downside guidance for FY 2020, projecting EPS of $8.50-10.00 versus analysts' consensus estimate of $10.67.

CAT fell to $133.84 (-1.13%) in pre-market trading.

GBP appreciated against other major currencies on Friday for a second straight day, backed by the latest decision of the Bank of England (BoE) to keep its interest rate unchanged. The Bank also noted the signs of a pick-up in the UK's economy after December's election, which weakened the case for immediate action. 

EUR traded little changed against its major rivals after the release of the preliminary data on Eurozone's GDP and inflation, which showed that the economy grew less than expected in the final quarter of 2019 and core inflation decelerated in the first month of 2020. A flash estimate published by Eurostat revealed that Eurozone's seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.1 percent q/q and 1.0 percent y/y in the fourth quarter of 2019, while economists had forecast gains of 0.2 percent q/q and 1.1 percent y/y. In the third quarter of 2019, Eurozone's GDP grew by 0.3 percent q/q and 1.2 percent y/y. In a separate report, Eurostat said Eurozone's annual inflation is expected to be 1.4 percent in January 2020, up from 1.3 percent in December 2019. Meanwhile, the core inflation is estimated to drop to 1.1 percent in the reported month from 1.3 percent in the previous month. Economists had forecast headline inflation at 1.4 percent and core inflation at 1.2 percent. 

Elsewhere, CNH and AUD weakened amid lingering fears about the spread of the coronavirus in China.

FXStreet reports that analysts at Nordea Markets expect the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to leave its key rate unchanged at 6.25% at its meeting next Friday but maintained their forecast of one more rate cut in the first half of the year.

“The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) will hold its first key rate meeting in 2020 next Friday. We believe that the CBR will take a break and leave its key rate unchanged at 6.25% after a very rapid easing (-150bp) in the second half of last year. A pause is needed to evaluate the inflation reaction to cuts already made.”

“The wait-and-see mode now seems even more justified given increased uncertainty over the future budget policy after the government reshuffle, and a bit weaker RUB amid intensified volatility on the global financial markets.”

“However, inflation pressures remain subdued, leaving the door open for another rate cut some time later in the first half of the year, especially if time shows that inflation responsiveness to earlier cuts is not too strong.”

FXStreet reports that Piotr Matys, the Senior Emerging Markets FX Strategist at Rabobank, noted the CEEMEA currencies are on track to end January on the back foot marking the worst start to a new year since January 2016. 

“The coronavirus has cast a long dark shadow over the markets and severely undermined the positive impact of the phase one trade deal. Until China demonstrates that the measures implemented so far (including quarantining around 40 million people) will prove sufficient to contain the deadly virus, the CEEMEA currencies will remain under pressure. While the ruble has not been the weakest link, Russia is actually the most exposed amongst its peers to a sharp slowdown in China’s economic activity caused by the paralysis of major manufacturing hubs and much weaker domestic consumption.”

“Russia’s exports to China reached a record high of USD 58.58bn in 2018 compared to just USD 9.73bn in 2003. The negative impact of the sharp fall in economic activity in China – even if short-lived – will be therefore much stronger on Russia than during the SARS crisis. USD/RUB has breached the December high at 63.1057. A close above this level on weekly basis would strengthen the bullish bias favouring further gains towards the December high at 64.4880.”

FXStreet reports that analysts at TD Securities (TDS) offered a brief preview on Thursday's release of Canadian monthly GDP print for November and also the near-term outlook for the USD/CAD pair.

“While FX investors continue to grapple with virus contagion concerns, today's Canadian GDP report is our main data focus. We look for a flat print on industry-level GDP for November, in line with the market consensus, due to weakness across goods and services. Transitory factors will have offsetting impacts, reflecting a rebound in auto production, after the UAW disrupted supply chains the prior month, alongside a headwind from the impact of cold weather and the CN strikes. Unchanged GDP would leave Q4 tracking near the BoC's latest projections (0.3%).”

“We continue to favour topside in USDCAD. Today's clear break above the 200-dma (1.3228) has brought the pair up to trendline resistance at 1.3240/45. This could usher in renewed buying interest if we manage to close this week above that mark. With support to be found in the 1.3150/80 zone, the next major objective higher comes in around the November/December highs near 1.3325. We note, however, spot is inching toward "overbought" conditions on the daily RSI. This could begin to constrain the pace of gains in USDCAD if bullish catalysts diminish.”

FXStreet reports that analysts at Nordea Markets expect the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to leave its key rate unchanged at 6.25% at its meeting next Friday but maintained their forecast of one more rate cut in the first half of the year.

“The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) will hold its first key rate meeting in 2020 next Friday. We believe that the CBR will take a break and leave its key rate unchanged at 6.25% after a very rapid easing (-150bp) in the second half of last year. A pause is needed to evaluate the inflation reaction to cuts already made.”

“The wait-and-see mode now seems even more justified given increased uncertainty over the future budget policy after the government reshuffle, and a bit weaker RUB amid intensified volatility on the global financial markets.”

“However, inflation pressures remain subdued, leaving the door open for another rate cut sometime later in the first half of the year, especially if time shows that inflation responsiveness to earlier cuts is not too strong.”

Visa (V) reported Q1 FY 2020 earnings of $1.46 per share (versus $1.30 per share in Q1 FY 2019), missing analysts' consensus estimate of $1.47 per share.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $6.054 bln (+10.0% y/y), roughly in line with analysts' consensus estimate of $6.078 bln.

The company also announced a $9.5 bln share buyback.

V fell to $202.50 (-2.74%) in pre-market trading.

Amazon (AMZN) reported Q4 FY 2019 earnings of $6.47 per share (versus $6.04 per share in Q4 FY 2018), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $3.98 per share.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $87.437 bln (+20.8% y/y), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $86.086 bln.

The company also issued in-line guidance for Q1 FY 2020, projecting revenues of $69-73 bln versus analysts' consensus estimate of $71.59 bln.

AMZN rose to $2,030.00 (+8.52%) in pre-market trading.

• Says Q4 GDP contraction is due to calendar effects
• Confident that measures adopted will support growth

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group keep the negative view on USD/JPY and still see a potential move to 108.40 in the next weeks.

24-hour view: "The rapid drop in USD to 108.57 and the equally quick bounce from the low came as a surprise (we were expecting USD to trade sideways). The rapid swing has resulted in a mixed outlook and for today, USD could trade in an undecided manner, likely within a relatively broad range of 108.60/109.15."

Next 1-3 weeks: "USD rebounded quickly after dropping to a low of 108.57 yesterday and closed little changed at 108.95 (-0.04%). While the price action was not out of line from our view on Tuesday (28 Jan, spot at 108.95) wherein USD is still under pressure and 'could weaken further to 108.40', the quick bounce has dented the downward momentum. For now, we continue to hold the same view but USD has to move and stay below 108.60 within these 1 to 2 days or the odds for further weakness would diminish quickly. On the upside, the 'strong resistance' level remains unchanged at 109.50 for now."

FXStreet reports that following the recent price action, FX Strategists at UOB now see USD/CNH attempting a move to the 7.04 region in the next weeks.

24-hour view: "We expected USD to strengthen yesterday but held the view '7.0000 is unlikely to come into the picture'. However, USD popped to a high of 7.0038 before dropping back quickly. The rapid pull-back amid overbought conditions suggest 7.0038 could be an interim top. The current movement in USD is likely the early stages of a consolidation phase. In other words, we expect USD to trade sideways for today, likely between 6.9650 and 6.9950."

Next 1-3 weeks: "The advance above 7.0000 yesterday (30 Jan) was short-lived as USD retreated quickly from 7.0038 to end the day at 6.9830 (+0.19%). Our latest narrative from Tuesday (28 Jan, spot at 6.9780) remains unchanged wherein USD "could extend its gains to 7.0400". However, after yesterday's price action, the odds for such a move have diminished somewhat but only a breach of 6.9350 (no change in 'strong support' level) would indicate the current USD strength has run its course."

According to a flash estimate from Eurostat, euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.4% in January 2020, up from 1.3% in December. The core figures dropped to 1.1% in the reported month when compared to 1.2% expectations and 1.3% previous.

Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, food, alcohol & tobacco is expected to have the highest annual rate in January (2.2%, compared with 2.0% in December), followed by energy (1.8%, compared with 0.2% in December), services (1.5%, compared with 1.8% in December) and non-energy industrial goods (0.5%, stable compared with December).

According to a preliminary flash estimate published by Eurostat, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.1% in both the euro area (EA19) and the EU28 during the fourth quarter of 2019, compared with the previous quarter. Economists had expected a 0.2% increase in the euro area. In the third quarter of 2019, GDP had grown by 0.3% in both zones.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 1.0% in the euro area and by 1.1% in the EU28 in the fourth quarter of 2019, after +1.2% and +1.4% respectively in the previous quarter. Economists had expected a 1.1% increase in the euro area.

According to a first estimation of annual growth for 2019, based on quarterly data, GDP grew by 1.2% in the euro area and 1.4% in the EU28.

According to the report from Bank of England, the extra amount borrowed by consumers in order to buy goods and services increased to £1.2 billion in December, in line with the £1.1 billion average seen since July 2018. Within this, net borrowing on credit cards recovered from a very weak November to £0.4 billion. Net borrowing for other loans and advances remained the same as in November, at £0.8 billion.

The annual growth rate of consumer credit rose to 6.1% in December, having ticked down to 5.9% in November. The growth rate for consumer credit has been close to this level since May 2019. Prior to this it had fallen steadily from an average of 10.3% in 2017.

Net mortgage borrowing by households was £4.6 billion in December, above the £4.2 billion average seen over the past six months. Despite these stronger flows, the annual growth rate for mortgage borrowing remained at 3.4%. Mortgage approvals for house purchase (an indicator for future lending) also picked up in December, to 67,200, above the 65,900 average of the past six months. Approvals for remortgage rose slightly on the month to 49,700.

UK businesses made net repayments of £2.6 billion of finance in December, driven by net repayments of bonds.

FXStreet reports that cable is expected to extend the broader consolidative mood amidst the prevailing mixed outlook, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group.

24-hour view: "Expectation for GBP to 'trade sideways' yesterday was incorrect as it surged to a high of 1.3110. While the rapid rise appears to be running ahead of itself, there is room for the advance in GBP to test the 1.3125 resistance first before easing off. For today, a move beyond 1.3150 is unlikely. Support is at 1.3065 followed by 1.3030."

Next 1-3 weeks: "After trading in a quiet manner and within a narrow range on Wednesday, GBP suddenly surged to a high of 1.3110 yesterday (30 Jan). The price action did not change our view from Tuesday (28 Jan, spot at 1.3060) wherein GBP is expected to "trade in an erratic manner between 1.2900 and 1.3200". To look at it another way, the price action from yesterday offers no fresh clues."

FXStreet reports that Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, noted the pair faces a tough hurdle in the vicinity of 1.1090.

"EUR/USD has started to recover just ahead of the 1.0981 29th November low. Just below here lies the 1.0956/78.6% retracement and we look for this to hold. Rallies will need to regain the previous uptrend, which is now likely to act as resistance, which is located at 1.1088."

"A move above here will refocus attention on the tough band of resistance overhead at 1.1175-1.1240 - namely the 55 week ma, the 2019-2020 down channel and the recent high. This guards the 200 week ma at 1.1356, which continues to represent a critical break point medium term."

FXStreet reports that analysts at Danske Bank outlined Friday's important releases, which includes the flash version of the Eurozone Q4 GDP print and consumer inflation figures.

"In the euro area we look forward to some interesting data releases with both Q4 GDP and preliminary January HICP figures out today. While leading indicators have pointed to some rays of light lately, industry has likely remained in recession in Q4 and hence we look for continued muted growth of 0.2% q/q in Q4."

"More upbeat is the outlook on the inflation front, where we expect another increase in HICP inflation to 1.4% in January. That said, the increase will mainly be driven by a rebound in energy and food prices, while we expect core inflation to fall back to 1.2%."

"The UK is set to leave the EU officially at midnight, more than three years after the Brexit vote."

eFXdata reports that TD Research discusses maintains a bearish NZD bias in the near-term, expressing that via holding short NZD/JPY position as its ToTW targeting a move towards 0.70.

"The most significant mover (lower) should be AUD. Behind it, we expect weakness in CAD and CHF, though the latter falls a touch short of the trade trigger. Still, its short signal is quite strong relative to recent averages, which leaves us comfortable with our CHFJPY view," TD notes.

"The model likes JPY. That said, the overall signal for the USD is a touch positive but should probably not get confused with the impact of the Fed. It does jibe with our short NZDJPY view, which we think is the best way to play the uncertainties around the coronavirus scare," TD adds.

National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies said, over a year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) should rise by 1.5% in January 2020, as in the previous month. The inflation should be stable: the acceleration in energy prices should be offset by a lesser dynamism in service, food and tobacco prices and a slightly more marked drop in the prices of manufactured goods.

Over one month, consumer prices should fall by 0.4%, after +0.4% in the previous month. Manufactured product prices should drop sharply due to winter sales and those of energy should edge down in the wake of petroleum product prices. Service prices should fall back in January, due to a seasonal downturn in transport service prices. Moreover, food prices should rise less than in the previous month. Finally, tobacco prices should increase slightly.

Year on year, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices should rise by 1.6%, as in December. Over one month, it should fall back by 0.5%, after +0.5% in the previous month.

According to the provisional data from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays fell in the retail sector by 0.4% in nominal terms in December 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.4% compared with the previous month.

Real turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.1% in December 2019 compared with the previous year. Economists had expected a 0.2% increase. Real growth takes inflation into consideration. Compared with the previous month, real, seasonally adjusted retail trade turnover registered a decline of 0.4%.

Adjusted for sales days and holidays, the retail sector excluding service stations showed a 0.2% increase in nominal turnover in December 2019 compared with December 2018 (in real terms +0.7%). Retail sales of food, drinks and tobacco registered a decline in nominal turnover of 0.6% (in real terms -0.3%), whereas the non-food sector registered a nominal plus of 0.8% (in real terms +1.6%).

Excluding service stations, the retail sector showed a seasonally adjusted decline in nominal turnover of 0.5% compared with the previous month (in real terms -0.5%). Retail sales of food, drinks and tobacco registered a nominal minus of 1.3% (in real terms -1.7%). The non-food sector showed a minus of 0.1% (in real terms -0.2%).

The US dollar strengthened slightly against the euro and rose against the yen amid some easing of worries about the spread of a new coronavirus after the World health organization (WHO) said there was no reason to impose restrictions on international travel and trade.

WHO, following an emergency meeting on Thursday, declared the coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency of international significance. At the same time, who Director General Tedros Adhan Gebreyesus praised the measures taken by China to contain the spread of the disease. He also noted that there is no good reason to impose restrictions on international travel and trade.

The US state Department listed China as the country with the highest fourth level of danger and recommended canceling trips there because of the coronavirus. Meanwhile, President Donald trump said that the United States is working closely with China and other countries to combat the new infection, and the situation with the virus is under control in the United States.

The ICE Dollar index, which shows the value of the US dollar against six major world currencies, rose 0.07% compared to the previous day.

According to provisional data from Destatis, turnover in retail trade in December 2019 was in real terms 0.8% and in nominal terms 1.7% larger than in December 2018. Economists had expected a 5.0% increase in real terms. The number of days open for sale was 24 in December 2019 and in December 2018.

Compared with the previous year, turnover in retail trade was in the whole year 2019 in real terms 2.7% and in nominal terms 3.3% higher than in 2018.

When adjusted for calendar and seasonal variations, the December turnover was in real terms 3.3% and in nominal terms 3.0% lower than in November 2019. Economists had expected a 0.5% decrease in real terms.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1155 (2780)

$1.1112 (3895)

$1.1080 (1555)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1021

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0994 (2248)

$1.0948 (1281)

$1.0899 (682)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 7 is 63026 contracts (according to data from January, 30) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1150 (4453);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3216 (1560)

$1.3179 (1075)

$1.3148 (1852)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3096

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3050 (2659)

$1.3022 (1213)

$1.2986 (3248)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 7 is 25437 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3600 (3910);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 7 is 21974 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3248);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.86 versus 0.90 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 30

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.