Forex-novosti i prognoze od 29-09-2024

UPOZORENJE: Materijal koji se nalazi u odeljku novosti i analitika se obnavlja automatski, pa ponovno učitavanje stranice može usporiti proces pojave novog materijala. Sa tim u vezi, predlažemo da stranicu sa novostima držite stalno otvorenom, kako biste nove materijala primili bez zastoja.
Filtriraj po valutnom paru
29.09.2024
23:51
Japan Large Retailer Sales increased to 4.4% in August from previous 1%
23:51
Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM) rose from previous 0.2% to 0.8% in August
23:51
Japan Industrial Production (MoM) came in at -3.3%, below expectations (-0.9%) in August
23:51
Japan Industrial Production (YoY) declined to -4.9% in August from previous 2.9%
23:50
Japan Retail Trade (YoY) registered at 2.8% above expectations (2.3%) in August
23:20
Fed’s Musalem: Central bank should cut US interest rates ‘gradually

St Louis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Alberto Musalem said on Friday that the Fed should revert to cutting interest rates “gradually”, after a larger than usual half-point reduction in the September meeting, per Financial Times.

Key quotes

 “For me, it’s about easing off the brake at this stage. It’s about making policy gradually less restrictive.” 

“I’m attuned to the fact that the economy could weaken more than I currently expect.

“If that were the case, then a faster pace of rate reductions might be appropriate.” 

Market reaction

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.02% higher on the day at 100.43, as of writing.

Fed FAQs

Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

 

23:07
AUD/USD holds positive ground above 0.6900 ahead of Chinese PMI data AUDUSD
  • AUD/USD trades in positive territory for the third consecutive day near 0.6910 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
  • US headline PCE rose less than expected in August. 
  • China’s stimulus measures and the hawkish stance of the RBA underpin the Aussie. 

The AUD/USD pair extends its upside to around 0.6910 during the early Asian session on Monday. The rising bets for another oversized interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November weigh on the US dollar (USD). The Chinese Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reports for September are due later on Monday. 

The US inflation data, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, eased more than expected to 2.2% YoY in August, paving the way for the US central bank to cut interest rates again in November, which drags the US Dollar (USD) lower broadly. On a monthly basis, the PCE Price Index increased by 0.1%, in line with the consensus. Meanwhile, the core PCE Price Index, which excludes the more volatile categories of food and energy, climbed by 2.7% YoY in the same period, matching market expectations. 

University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index came in better than the estimations, rising to 70.1 in September from 66.0 in August. Investors are now pricing in nearly 52.8% odds of a 50 basis points (bps) interest rate cut in November, while the chance of a smaller quarter-point move stands at 47.2%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. 

On the other hand, fresh China’s stimulus measures continue to fuel the risk-on rally and boost the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD). Additionally, the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) contributes to the Aussie’s upside. The RBA kept its cash rate at 4.35% for a seventh consecutive meeting and stated that the policy would need to stay restrictive to ensure inflation slowed.

 

Australian Dollar FAQs

One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.



 

23:00
South Korea Industrial Output (YoY) declined to 3.8% in August from previous 5.5%
23:00
South Korea Industrial Output Growth: 4.1% (August) vs -3.6%
23:00
South Korea Service Sector Output down to 0.2% in August from previous 0.7%

© 2000-2024. Sva prava zaštićena.

Sajt je vlasništvo kompanije Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).

Svi podaci koji se nalaze na sajtu ne predstavljaju osnovu za donošenje investicionih odluka, već su informativnog karaktera.

The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.

Politika sprečavanja pranja novca

Upozorenje o rizicima

Izvršenje trgovinskih operacija sa finansijskim instrumentima upotrebom marginalne trgovine pruža velike mogućnosti i omogućava investitorima ostvarivanje visokih prihoda. Međutim, takav vid trgovine povezan je sa potencijalno visokim nivoom rizika od gubitka sredstava. Проведение торговых операций на финанcовых рынках c маржинальными финанcовыми инcтрументами открывает широкие возможноcти, и позволяет инвеcторам, готовым пойти на риcк, получать выcокую прибыль, но при этом неcет в cебе потенциально выcокий уровень риcка получения убытков. Iz tog razloga je pre započinjanja trgovine potrebno odlučiti o izboru odgovarajuće investicione strategije, uzimajući u obzir raspoložive resurse.

Politika poverenja

Upotreba informacija: U slučaju potpunog ili delimičnog preuzimanja i daljeg korišćenja materijala koji se nalazi na sajtu, potrebno je navesti link odgovarajuće stranice na sajtu kompanije TeleTrade-a kao izvora informacija. Upotreba materijala na internetu mora biti praćena hiper linkom do web stranice teletrade.org. Automatski uvoz materijala i informacija sa stranice je zabranjen.

Ako imate bilo kakvih pitanja, obratite nam se pr@teletrade.global.

Банковни
транcфери
Feedback
Lajv čet E-mail
Povratak na vrh
Izaberi lokaciju / jezik