Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:30 (GMT) | Japan | Manufacturing PMI | April | 52.7 | 53.3 |
01:00 (GMT) | China | Non-Manufacturing PMI | April | 56.3 | |
01:00 (GMT) | China | Manufacturing PMI | April | 51.9 | 51.7 |
01:30 (GMT) | Australia | Private Sector Credit, y/y | March | 1.6% | |
01:30 (GMT) | Australia | Private Sector Credit, m/m | March | 0.2% | |
01:30 (GMT) | Australia | Producer price index, q / q | Quarter I | 0.5% | |
01:30 (GMT) | Australia | Producer price index, y/y | Quarter I | -0.1% | |
05:00 (GMT) | Japan | Construction Orders, y/y | March | 2.5% | |
05:00 (GMT) | Japan | Housing Starts, y/y | March | -3.7% | -7.4% |
05:00 (GMT) | Japan | Consumer Confidence | April | 36.1 | |
05:30 (GMT) | France | GDP, q/q | Quarter I | -1.4% | 0.1% |
06:00 (GMT) | United Kingdom | Nationwide house price index, y/y | April | 5.7% | 5% |
06:00 (GMT) | United Kingdom | Nationwide house price index | April | -0.2% | 0.5% |
06:30 (GMT) | Switzerland | Retail Sales (MoM) | March | -5.2% | |
06:30 (GMT) | Switzerland | Retail Sales Y/Y | March | -6.3% | |
06:45 (GMT) | France | CPI, m/m | April | 0.6% | 0.2% |
06:45 (GMT) | France | Consumer spending | March | 0% | 0.4% |
06:45 (GMT) | France | CPI, y/y | April | 1.1% | 1.3% |
07:00 (GMT) | Switzerland | KOF Leading Indicator | April | 117.8 | 119.5 |
08:00 (GMT) | Germany | GDP (QoQ) | Quarter I | 0.3% | -1.5% |
08:00 (GMT) | Germany | GDP (YoY) | Quarter I | -3.7% | -3.2% |
09:00 (GMT) | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI | April | 0.9% | |
09:00 (GMT) | Eurozone | Unemployment Rate | March | 8.3% | 8.3% |
09:00 (GMT) | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y | April | 0.9% | 0.8% |
09:00 (GMT) | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI, Y/Y | April | 1.3% | 1.6% |
09:00 (GMT) | Eurozone | GDP (YoY) | Quarter I | -4.9% | -2% |
09:00 (GMT) | Eurozone | GDP (QoQ) | Quarter I | -0.7% | -0.8% |
12:30 (GMT) | U.S. | Personal spending | March | -1.0% | 4.1% |
12:30 (GMT) | U.S. | Employment Cost Index | Quarter I | 0.7% | 0.7% |
12:30 (GMT) | Canada | GDP (m/m) | February | 0.7% | 0.5% |
12:30 (GMT) | U.S. | PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y | March | 1.4% | 1.8% |
12:30 (GMT) | U.S. | PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m | March | 0.1% | 0.3% |
12:30 (GMT) | U.S. | Personal Income, m/m | March | -7.1% | 20.3% |
13:45 (GMT) | U.S. | Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index | April | 66.3 | 65.3 |
14:00 (GMT) | U.S. | Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index | April | 84.9 | 87.4 |
17:00 (GMT) | U.S. | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | April | 343 |
According to ActionForex, analysts at TD Bank Financial Group note that the U.S. real GDP grew 6.4% (annualized) in the first quarter, ahead of the median consensus forecast for 6.1%.
"The acceleration in GDP growth came largely from a jump in consumer spending, which rose 10.7% (annualized) in the first quarter. Once again spending on durable goods rocketed higher once again, up 41.4% annualized. According to the BEA, another jump up in vehicles spending was the bulk of the story, but all major durable goods categories saw big spending gains. Services spending rose a solid 4.6%, a step up from 4.3% in Q4, led by spending on food services and accommodation. Still, spending on services remains 5.7% below pre-pandemic levels."
"Non-residential fixed investment posted a solid 9.9% gain, although the pace of growth has cooled from 13.1% in Q4."
"Residential investment continued its strong performance, expanding 10.8% in Q1."
"Government spending jumped 6.3%, the strongest increase since Q4 2001. Federal nondefense spending shot up 44.8% annualized, driven by payments made to banks for administering the PPP program. Outlays at the state and local level rose 1.7%, the first increase since the pandemic hit."
"The export recovery took a breather in Q1, as exports fell 1.1%. Imports continued to gain ground, up 5.7%. Therefore, net exports subtracted 0.9 percentage points from growth."
"Thanks to two rounds of stimulus payments and vaccinations ramping up, consumer unleashed some serious spending in the first quarter of 2021. As a result, the U.S. is on track to exceed its pre-pandemic level of activity in the second quarter, and will start making up for lost ground over the coming quarters."
Palladium price to rally past $3,000 and even beyond $3,200 - TDS
FXStreet notes that palladium has surged to record levels just shy of $3,000/oz in recent weeks. In the view of Bart Melek, Head of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities, the precious metal seems poised to prolong the upward trajectory amid persistent supply worries.
“The reflation and super-cycle narrative, along with hopes of a continued cyclical demand recovery as vaccine programs continue, supply disruptions and a global trend toward tighter emissions standards, have all boosted the metal.”
“Biden's recently passed $1.9 trillion stimulus bill and the planned $2+ trillion infrastructure program, along with China's surprising economic performance, are additional bullish factors.”
“As Russian and South African mining sectors deliver less metal than expected, due to various problems on their mine sites, the strong demand outlook should see deep deficits materialize over the next several years. This, along with a lack of readily available inventory could well see palladium trade significantly above TD Securities' Q4-2022 average price target of $3,200/oz.”
The
National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced on Thursday its seasonally
adjusted pending home sales index (PHSI) rose 1.9 percent m-o-m to 111.3 in
March, after a revised 11.5 percent m-o-m plunge in February (originally a 10.6
percent m-o-m tumble).
Economists
had expected pending home sales to increase 5.0 percent m-o-m in March.
On
y-o-y basis, the index surged 23.3 percent after an unrevised 0.5 percent drop
in February.
This was the biggest gain since August 2020.
According
to the report, three of the four regional indices recorded month-over-month gains
in March, and each index saw year-over-year growth. The Northeast PHSI rose 6.1
percent m-o-m to 97.9 in March, a 16.7 percent advance from a year ago. Pending
home sales transactions in the South increased 2.9 percent m-o-m to an index of
137.2 in March, up 27.9 percent from March 2020. The index in the West grew 2.9
percent m-o-m in March to 94.5, up 29.8 percent from a year prior. Meanwhile, the
PHSI for the Midwest declined 3.7 percent m-o-m to 98.6 last month, up 14.1
percent from March 2020.
"The
increase in pending sales transactions for the month of March is indicative of
high housing demand," noted Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist.
"With mortgage rates still very close to record lows and a solid job
recovery underway, demand will likely remain high."
FXStreet reports that Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, notes that sterling has not been overly impacted by the news of Tory sleaze but this may change if the news worsens and if international coverage of UK political skulduggery increases.
“While the PM and his allies are trying to turn the focus of the press and the electorate back to the country’s affairs, Johnson may not be able to escape quickly. On May 26, his former close ally Cummins is due to appear before parliament’s joint Health and Science committee inquiry into the government’s Covid response. Given the accusations contained in Cummin’s blog last week regarding the PM, it is clear that he has something to say. While the pound is largely dismissing political risk right now, this scandal could yet knock confidence in Johnson's ability to ride out political storms.”
“On the upside, anecdotal evidence suggests that the partial re-opening of the UK economy on April 12 has boosted consumption. This factor combined with the continued rapid vaccine rollout and the current low incidence of COVID-19 in the UK at present are all supportive for growth.”
“Cable likely to face psychological resistance at the 1.40 level with the 100-day SMA at 1.3757 likely offering support. EUR/GBP remains at the upper end of its April range with resistance at 0.8720.”
U.S. stock-index futures surged on Thursday, as investors reacted to strong earnings reports of Apple (AAPL; +2.7%) and Facebook (FB; +7.6%), and better-than-expected Q1 U.S. GDP data.
Global Stocks:
Index/commodity | Last | Today's Change, points | Today's Change, % |
Nikkei | - | - | - |
Hang Seng | 29,303.26 | +231.92 | +0.80% |
Shanghai | 3,474.90 | +17.83 | +0.52% |
S&P/ASX | 7,082.30 | +17.60 | +0.25% |
FTSE | 6,986.82 | +23.15 | +0.33% |
CAC | 6,332.57 | +25.59 | +0.41% |
DAX | 15,223.76 | -68.42 | -0.45% |
Crude oil | $65.28 | +2.22% | |
Gold | $1,780.40 | +0.37% |
(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)
3M Co | MMM | 197.04 | 1.11(0.57%) | 1295 |
ALCOA INC. | AA | 37 | 0.51(1.40%) | 21796 |
ALTRIA GROUP INC. | MO | 46.96 | -0.22(-0.47%) | 49993 |
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ | AMZN | 3,501.61 | 43.11(1.25%) | 84137 |
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP | AIG | 48.51 | 0.30(0.62%) | 1104 |
Apple Inc. | AAPL | 136.99 | 3.41(2.55%) | 2560463 |
AT&T Inc | T | 31.08 | 0.12(0.39%) | 62742 |
Boeing Co | BA | 237.38 | 1.92(0.82%) | 96412 |
Caterpillar Inc | CAT | 236.65 | 4.35(1.87%) | 82566 |
Chevron Corp | CVX | 106.74 | 1.52(1.44%) | 23668 |
Cisco Systems Inc | CSCO | 51.02 | -0.09(-0.18%) | 51403 |
Citigroup Inc., NYSE | C | 73.45 | 0.54(0.74%) | 58110 |
Deere & Company, NYSE | DE | 383 | 3.20(0.84%) | 480 |
E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co | DD | 77.25 | 0.20(0.26%) | 1214 |
Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM | 58.97 | 0.86(1.48%) | 132599 |
Facebook, Inc. | FB | 332.5 | 25.40(8.27%) | 1408047 |
Ford Motor Co. | F | 11.97 | -0.46(-3.70%) | 1751375 |
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE | FCX | 39.88 | 0.53(1.35%) | 104011 |
General Electric Co | GE | 13.26 | 0.06(0.45%) | 458965 |
General Motors Company, NYSE | GM | 57.74 | -0.81(-1.38%) | 95168 |
Goldman Sachs | GS | 350.34 | 2.23(0.64%) | 3317 |
Google Inc. | GOOG | 2,392.79 | 12.88(0.54%) | 11657 |
Hewlett-Packard Co. | HPQ | 34.5 | 0.18(0.52%) | 233 |
Home Depot Inc | HD | 320.55 | 0.84(0.26%) | 2769 |
HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC. | HON | 224 | 1.13(0.51%) | 1379 |
Intel Corp | INTC | 57.82 | 0.20(0.35%) | 141441 |
International Business Machines Co... | IBM | 143.65 | 0.65(0.45%) | 16355 |
Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | 162.65 | 0.67(0.41%) | 4925 |
JPMorgan Chase and Co | JPM | 153.35 | 1.12(0.74%) | 25260 |
McDonald's Corp | MCD | 233.5 | 1.09(0.47%) | 87322 |
Merck & Co Inc | MRK | 75.63 | -1.46(-1.89%) | 145847 |
Microsoft Corp | MSFT | 255.62 | 1.06(0.42%) | 436227 |
Nike | NKE | 131.5 | 0.79(0.60%) | 15261 |
Pfizer Inc | PFE | 38.96 | 0.15(0.39%) | 90850 |
Procter & Gamble Co | PG | 131.75 | 0.35(0.27%) | 4912 |
Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ | SBUX | 112.78 | 0.38(0.34%) | 27639 |
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ | TSLA | 701.52 | 7.12(1.03%) | 241878 |
The Coca-Cola Co | KO | 53.78 | 0.19(0.35%) | 16743 |
Twitter, Inc., NYSE | TWTR | 67.79 | 2.09(3.18%) | 167486 |
UnitedHealth Group Inc | UNH | 396.99 | 2.40(0.61%) | 584 |
Verizon Communications Inc | VZ | 56.56 | 0.13(0.23%) | 18331 |
Visa | V | 234.5 | 1.05(0.45%) | 6143 |
Wal-Mart Stores Inc | WMT | 138.21 | 0.32(0.23%) | 13708 |
Walt Disney Co | DIS | 184.5 | 1.11(0.61%) | 29394 |
Yandex N.V., NASDAQ | YNDX | 65.82 | 0.86(1.32%) | 11813 |
The
Commerce Department released on Thursday its advance estimate for the U.S.
gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2021, which revealed the
U.S. economy grew more than forecast in the reviewed period.
According
to the estimate, the U.S. real GDP expanded at an annual rate of 6.4 percent
q-o-q last quarter, following a 4.3 percent q-o-q growth in the fourth quarter
of 2020, reflecting the continued economic recovery, reopening of
establishments, and continued government response related to the COVID-19
pandemic.
Economists
had expected GDP to increase by 6.1 percent q-o-q.
According
to the report, the advance in real GDP in the first quarter reflected gains in
personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment,
federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and state and local
government spending, which were partly offset by declines in private inventory
investment and exports. Meanwhile, imports, which are a subtraction in the
calculation of GDP, rose.
The data from the Labor Department revealed on Thursday the number of applications for unemployment totaled more than expected last week, but was the lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic struck.
According
to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped by 13,000
to 553,000 for the week ended April 24. This was lowest reading since March
2020.
Economists
had expected 549,000 new claims last week.
Claims
for the prior week were revised upwardly to 566,000 from the initial estimate
of 547,000.
Meanwhile,
the four-week moving average of jobless claims fell to 611,750 from an upwardly
revised 655,750 in the previous week.
Continuing
claims rose to 3,660,000 from a downwardly revised 3,651,000 in the previous
week.
Germany's
Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported on Thursday the country’s
consumer price index (CPI) is expected to increase 0.7 percent m-o-m in April after
gaining 0.5 percent m-o-m in the previous month.
On
the y-o-y basis, Germany’s CPI is seen to surge 2.0 in April, following a 1.7
percent jump in March. This represents the largest advance since April 2019.
Economists
had predicted inflation would rise 0.5 percent m-o-m and 1.9 percent y-o-y in April.
According
to the report, food price increased 1.9 percent y-o-y in April after a 1.6
percent y-o-y advance in March. Energy prices jumped 7.9 percent y-o-y
after a 4.8 percent y-o-y climb in the previous month. Services costs grew 1.6 percent y-o-y, the same pace as in March.
Meanwhile,
the harmonized index of consumer prices for Germany (HICP), which is calculated
for European purposes, is expected to rise 0.5 percent m-o-m and 2.1 percent
y-o-y.
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
07:55 | Germany | Unemployment Change | April | -6 | -10 | 9 |
07:55 | Germany | Unemployment Rate s.a. | April | 6% | 6% | 6% |
08:00 | Eurozone | Private Loans, Y/Y | March | 3% | 3.3% | |
08:00 | Eurozone | M3 money supply, adjusted y/y | March | 12.2% | 10.2% | 10.1% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Consumer Confidence | April | -10.8 | -8.1 | -8.1 |
09:00 | Eurozone | Industrial confidence | April | 2.1 | 4 | 10.7 |
09:00 | Eurozone | Economic sentiment index | April | 100.9 | 102.2 | 110.3 |
12:00 | Germany | CPI, m/m | April | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% |
12:00 | Germany | CPI, y/y | April | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2% |
USD edged down against most of its major rivals in the European session on Thursday after market participants received the reassurance from the Federal Reserve that it would not imminently reduce its support of the U.S. economy and the details of U.S. President Joe Biden's new spending plan.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, went down 0.03% to 90.58.
The Fed repeated its pledge to keep interest rates at record lows and to continue its asset purchases at the current pace until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. The Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell also shrugged off concerns for accelerating inflation as "transitory".
The U.S. President Joe Biden unveiled yesterday his $1.8 trillion "American Families Plan", proposing spendings on education, childcare, and infrastructure over the next 10 years. The president called for taxes for the wealthiest Americans to be hiked to help fund his plan.
FXStreet reports that the USD/CAD pair has seen a clear break below the 1.2365 low, further reinforcing the Credit Suisse analyst team’s bearish outlook. The next major support is at 1.2256/51.
“USD/CAD has seen a very sharp fall below important support at the 1.2365 2021 low, in line with the large bearish ‘outside day’ and recent bearish cross lower in daily MACD momentum.”
“We stay bearish, with the next major support below here seen at a major corrective price low at 1.2256/51, which is similarly expected to prove a tough initial barrier. Nevertheless, with a major long-term top in place, we still see scope for an eventual move to 1.2062, the 2017 low.”
FXStreet notes that the market has had an impressive rally over the past year, rising 91% on a total return basis since the March lows. As a result, the market has reached a new high 27 times so far this year, already outpacing the average number of all-time highs achieved per year since 1988. Should “do-it-yourselfers” invest at all-time highs? According to Jordan Jackson, Global Market Strategist at JP Morgan, history suggests that now may be just as good as any to put cash to work in the market – especially if you’re investing for the long run like retirement.
“While we believe the path of least resistance for markets is higher, it’s reasonable to expect some choppiness as elevated valuations, risks of a new COVID-19 strain outbreak and materially higher inflation, all pose risks to the outlook.”
“For many do-it-yourselfers (‘DIYers’) and other retail investors, as the market continues to hit new all-time highs, it’s likely they may want to pull back on risk even further. However, history suggests that now may be just as good as any to put cash to work in the market – especially if you’re investing for the long run like retirement.”
“If you invested in the S&P 500 on any random day since the start of 1988, on average, your one-year total return was +11.9%. Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, if we only consider investments on days when the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high, your average one-year total return was +14.3%. Moreover, if we look at cumulative total returns three or five years out, the takeaway is the same.”
FXStreet reports that GBP/USD remains above price support at 1.3810/09 as well as its rising 55-day average and economists at Credit Suisse look for a retest of key price resistance at 1.4001/17, with a move above here needed to mark a more convincing base.
“With resistance at 1.3950 broken, cable reasserts an immediate upward bias in the broader range and we look for a retest of the March highs at 1.4001/17.”
“Beyond the March highs at 1.4001/17 remains needed to see a more convincing base established to reinforce our core longer-term bullish view following the completion of a much larger base above 1.3514 late last year. We would then look a move back to the 1.4238 high initially ahead of our first core upside target of 1.4302/77 – the 2018 highs and 50% retracement of the 2014/2020 bear trend.”
“Support moves to 1.3939/33 initially, with 1.3891 now ideally holding to keep the immediate risk higher in the range."
McDonald's (MCD) reported Q1 FY 2021 earnings of $1.92 per share (versus $1.47 per share in Q1 FY 2020), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.80 per share.
The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $5.125 bln (+8.7% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $5.015 bln.
MCD fell to $230.50 (-0.82%) in pre-market trading.
Caterpillar (CAT) reported Q1 FY 2021 earnings of $2.87 per share (versus $1.60 per share in Q1 FY 2020), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.88 per share.
The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $11.887 bln (+11.8% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $11.000 bln.
CAT rose to $237.00 (+2.02%) in pre-market trading.
FXStreet notes that the Q1 DXY recovery was repeatedly interrupted by multi-day setbacks, but so far in April, it has slipped almost every day without respite. Economists at Westpac are looking for more DXY downside, with U.S. yields contained by Powell’s resolutely dovish stance and Europe rebound optimism building as vaccinations gather pace.
“DXY poised for more weakness with US yields contained by Fed Chair Powell’s resolutely dovish stance and pessimism toward Europe continuing to moderate on the vaccination and fiscal fronts.”
“DXY could make a last-ditch attempt to prove itself if April payrolls blow past expectations. An outsized 1mn+ gain would sustain hopes the US can claw back the outstanding 8.4mn pandemic job losses sooner than expected.”
Merck (MRK) reported Q1 FY 2021 earnings of $1.40 per share (versus $1.50 per share in Q1 FY 2020), missing analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.63 per share.
The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $12.080 bln (+0.2% y/y), missing analysts’ consensus estimate of $12.709 bln.
The company also issued in-line guidance for FY 2021, projecting EPS of $6.48-6.88 versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $6.51 and revenues of $51.8-53.8 bln versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $52.11 bln.
MRK fell to $75.00 (-2.71%) in pre-market trading.
FXStreet notes that EUR/USD has broken key resistance from its March high, 61.8% retracement of its Q1 fall and downtrend from the beginning of the year at 1.2103/18. Analysts at Credit look for further strength to 1.2212, potentially the 1.2243 February high.
“EUR/USD removed key resistance at 1.2103/18 yesterday and completed a bullish ‘outside day’ in the process, reasserting an upward bias again. With the USD itself also under pressure and expected to weaken further into month-end we look for further strength to the 78.6% retracement of the Q1 fall at 1.2212, with scope for the 1.2243 February high, which we then look to try and cap to define the top of a fresh sideways range.”
“A direct break of the 1.2243 February high would open the door to a retest of the high for the year at 1.2350.”
“Support moves to 1.2103 initially, then 1.2067, with the immediate risk seen higher whilst above 1.2057/56."
Ford Motor (F) reported Q1 FY 2021 earnings of $0.89 per share (versus -$0.23 per share in Q1 FY 2020), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.13 per share.
The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $33.554 bln (+7.1% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $32.719 bln.
The company, however, warned it expects to lose about 50% of its planned Q2 FY 2021 production, due to the chip shortage, but Q2 should be the trough.
F fell to $12.10 (-2.65%) in pre-market trading.
Facebook (FB) reported Q1 FY 2021 earnings of $3.30 per share (versus $1.71 per share in Q1 FY 2020), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $2.32 per share.
The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $26.200 bln (+47.7% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $23.608 bln.
FB rose to $329.50 (+7.29%) in pre-market trading.
Peter Vanden Houte, Chief Economist at ING, notes that the European Commission's economic sentiment indicator soared in April, allowing them to declare that the Covid-19 recession over.
"The European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator surged to 110.3 points in April from 100.9 in March, dwarfing the consensus forecast of 102.2. In two months’ time sentiment has gained 16.9 points, now firmly standing above its long-term average."
"Industrial confidence is now at a record high, while sentiment in the service sector surprised with an 11.7 point jump. Confidence in retail and in construction saw a significant increase, while consumer confidence also improved. It is very encouraging to see that all forward-looking indicators are rising. Production expectations in industry reached their best reading on record, while stocks were considered scarce as never before. Order books and demand expectations are swelling in all sectors. The Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI) exceeded its long-term average for the first time since February 2020 on the back of a hefty increase in April (+9.9). All surveyed business sectors showed more optimistic employment plans."
"The quarterly survey showed that the rate of capacity utilisation rose to 82.5%, a marked 5.0 percentage points higher than in January and now above both the indicator’s long-term average and pre-pandemic level. This bodes well for a recovery in business investment in the course of this year. With unemployment expectations declining, it comes as no surprise that a growing number of consumers is planning major purchases over the next 12 months. The Covid-19 recession can now be declared officially over."
Apple (AAPL) reported Q2 FY 2021 earnings of $1.40 per share (versus $2.55 per share in Q2 FY 2020), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.98 per share.
The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $89.584 bln (+53.6% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $76.837 bln.
The company did not provide Q3 FY 2021 guidance.
Apple's board of directors also declared a cash dividend of $0.22/share, an increase of 7 percent, and authorized an increase of $90 billion to the existing share repurchase program.
AAPL rose to $137.62 (+3.02%) in pre-market trading.
FXStreet reports that economists at Westpac expect the kiwi to reach the 0.7300 level.
“NZD/USD continues to break higher, 0.7270 to be tested next, en route to 0.7300. We would view any corrective pullbacks to 0.7150 as opportunities to buy for the medium term.”
“Further USD weakness is expected as the Fed remains defiantly accommodative, global growth improves further, and commodity prices continue to rise. With that backdrop, NZD/USD should rise to 0.76 by year-end.”
FXStreet reports that according to economists at MUFG Bank, the US dollar is vulnerable to further weakness in the near-term.
“The Fed maintained their very dovish policy stance despite acknowledging the robust US economic recovery at the start of this year. The lack of any hawkish policy shift last night from the Fed has encouraged an extension of the bearish US dollar trend that has been in place this month.”
“The bullish update to their outlook for the US economy did not prompt the Fed to alter their dovish policy guidance. Chair Powell reiterated that the Fed is still far away from withdrawing support for the US economy, and was not yet thinking about thinking about tapering QE.”
“The developments support our view that it is likely too early to expect the Fed to alter their policy stance in light of their new policy goals. When evidence continues to build over a robust recovery in the first half of this year, the Fed will be in a better position to prepare markets for tapering QE heading into the summer. It leaves the US dollar vulnerable to further weakness in the near-term.”
According to the report from European Commission, in April 2021, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) continued its strong recovery, gaining 9.8 (EU) / 9.4 (EA) points compared to March. At 109.7 (EU) / 110.3 (EA) points, the ESI scores markedly above its long-term average and pre-pandemic level for the first time since the outbreak of COVID-19 on the continent. Also the Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI) saw a forceful increase (+9.9 points to 107.9 in the EU and +9.3 points to 107.1 in the euro area), which lifted the indicator both above its long-term average and pre-pandemic level.
In the EU, the ESI’s increase was driven by improving confidence in all surveyed business sectors (i.e. industry, services, retail trade, construction) and among consumers. The ESI rose markedly in all of the six largest EU economies, most so in Poland (+11.3), followed by the Netherlands (+10.7), Spain (+9.1), France (+8.5), Germany (+5.7) and Italy (+5.3). Thanks to the latest increases, sentiment in all six countries is above its long term average of 100.
According to the report from European Central Bank, the annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 decreased to 10.1% in March 2021 from 12.2% in February, averaging 11.6% in the three months up to March. Economists had expected a 10.2% increase. The components of M3 showed the following developments. The annual growth rate of the narrower aggregate M1, which comprises currency in circulation and overnight deposits, decreased to 13.6% in March from 16.4% in February. The annual growth rate of short-term deposits other than overnight deposits (M2-M1) stood at 1.0% in March, unchanged from the previous month. The annual growth rate of marketable instruments (M3-M2) decreased to 7.1% in March from 13.8% in February.
Annual growth rate of adjusted loans to households increased to 3.3% in March from 3.0% in February
Annual growth rate of adjusted loans to non-financial corporations decreased to 5.3% in March from 7.0% in February
Reuters reports that the Labour Office said that German unemployment rose unexpectedly in April and companies put more staff on shorter working hours in subsidized job protection schemes, in a further pandemic-related setback for a fragile recovery in Europe’s largest economy.
Number of people out of work increased by 9,000 in seasonally adjusted terms to 2.760 million. Economists had expected a fall of 10,000.
The number of employees put on short-time work schemes increased to 3.27 million in February from 2.9 million in January, the office added.
Reuters reports that according to the data from the World Gold Council (WGC), global demand for gold in the first quarter of 2021 was stuck near its lowest level since 2008 as heavy selling by investors in Europe and North America offset a revival of consumer buying in Asia.
Lockdowns to contain the pandemic simultaneously collapsed sales of gold jewellery, bars and coins in countries like China and India that are typically the biggest bullion buyers. This dynamic is now reversing as the global economy recovers, with investors unwinding some of their positions and consumers in Asia returning to the market.
Global demand amounted to 815.7 tonnes over January-March, up slightly from 813.7 tonnes in October-December last year but down 23% from the first quarter of 2020, the WGC said in its latest quarterly report.
Consumer demand in China, typically the biggest market, rebounded spectacularly to 286.4 tonnes, the most since the first quarter of 2017, the WGC said.
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01:30 | Australia | Export Price Index, q/q | Quarter I | 5.5% | 11.2% | |
01:30 | Australia | Import Price Index, q/q | Quarter I | -1% | 0.2% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar was trading stable against most major currencies after the Federal Reserve meeting.
Yesterday, the Fed kept the interest rate on federal loan funds in the range of 0% to 0.25% per annum. The Fed also said it will continue to buy back $120 billion worth of assets each month, including $80 billion worth of US Treasuries and $40 billion worth of mortgage bonds.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said during a news conference that the US economy is recovering from the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic faster than expected, but the recovery "remains uneven and far from complete."
As Powell noted, the time has not yet come to discuss the possibility of reducing the amount of monetary stimulus, which provides "strong support" to the economy.
Maintaining low interest rates in the face of an improving situation in the US and in the global economy is a recipe for further weakening of the dollar, CBA experts said. The risk is that the Fed will be too cautious and delay the first steps to normalize monetary policy, according to the CBA.
The ICE index, which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona), rose by 0.02%.
FXStreet reports that strategists at Capital Economics said that there are clearly risks to the S&P 500 outlook, such as the president’s plan to raise corporate taxes and a potential antitrust drive.
“Just because analysts appear to have underestimated the scale of the rebound in earnings in Q1 doesn’t mean that they are being too conservative about the future. On the contrary, they seem to be very optimistic even allowing for the fact that the US economy is likely to fare especially well during the rest of this year and next.”
“The implication is that EPS will have to perform even better than analysts are forecasting in general between now and the end of 2022 if the S&P 500 is to get a boost from this source. We think that is unlikely, despite our positive view of the US economy.”
“Even if analysts stop revising up their forecasts for EPS, the S&P 500 could still get a boost if its valuation continues to climb. But the price investors are willing to pay for earnings is already at a lofty level. The S&P 500 will barely make any more headway in 2021 – our end -year forecast is 4,200 – and eke out only small gains in 2022 and 2023.”
As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the index of import prices increased by 6.9% in March 2021 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. This has been the highest year-on-year-change since April 2011 (+7.7%). In February 2021 and in January 2021 the annual rates of change were +1.4% and -1.2%, respectively. From February 2021 to March 2021 the index rose by 1.8%.
Energy imports were 56.7% more expensive in March 2021 than in March 2020. This high rate of annual change derives from the very low prices in March 2020, which were caused by a corona related drop of demand and a strong surplus of supply throughout Europe. The largest influence on the year-on-year rate of energy price increase had crude oil with a plus of 100.5%, natural gas with a plus of 35.8 % und mineral oil products with a plus of 36.6 %. In addition, the price of electricity increased significantly by 113.6%.
The index of import prices, excluding crude oil and mineral oil products, increased by 3.8% in March 2021 compared with March 2020 and in comparison with February 2021 it rose by 1.4%.
The index of export prices increased by 2.2% in March 2021 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. This has been the highest year-on-year-change since April 2017 (+2.6%). In February 2021 and in January 2021 the annual rates of change were +0.7% and +0.1%, respectively. From February 2021 to March 2021 the index rose by 0.8%.
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.2219 (1772)
$1.2186 (1337)
$1.2163 (1663)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2129
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.2073 (557)
$1.2037 (1610)
$1.1994 (1322)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date May, 7 is 55088 contracts (according to data from April, 28) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2000 (3326);
GBP/USD
$1.4037 (1363)
$1.4009 (792)
$1.3987 (1853)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.3955
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.3860 (702)
$1.3825 (388)
$1.3785 (413)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 7 is 12583 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4200 (2932);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 7 is 18795 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3750 (1923);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.49 versus 1.49 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 28
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
CNBC reports that U.S. President Joe Biden called for America to work together against competition from China, as tensions between the two nations simmer.
Chinese President Xi Jinping is “deadly earnest on becoming the most significant, consequential nation in the world,” Biden said. He cited more than 24 hours of private conversation and travel with Xi, whom Biden met as vice president during the Obama administration.
Biden added: ”(Xi) and other autocrats think that democracy can’t compete in the 21st century with autocracies because it takes too long to get consensus.”
While Biden has sought to work more with traditional U.S. allies in putting pressure on China, he has stuck to Trump’s firm position on Beijing, including retaining tariffs and sanctions.
“We are in competition with China and other countries to win the 21st century,” Biden said. “We are at a great inflection point in history. We have to do more than just build back better. … We have to compete more strenuously.”
However, Biden said competition with China — or a strong U.S. military presence in the Indo-Pacific — does not mean the U.S. is looking for conflict. Xi was the first foreign national leader to speak last week at a U.S.-led climate summit.
According to the report from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), UK car production rose 46.6% in March, the first increase after 18 months of decline, with 115,498 cars manufactured. The performance marks one year since the coronavirus crisis caused all UK automotive plants to be shuttered in mid-March 2020, after only 78,767 cars had left factory gates that month.
Compared with the five-year March average, production was down -22.8%, equivalent to a loss of 34,047 units, and some -32.1% lower than the 2017 record for the month. It rounds off a -4.0% decline in the first quarter of 2021 with 306,558 units produced, 12,694 less than a year before.
March output for the domestic market rose 19.4% to 20,269 units with exports also increasing, up 54.1% to 95,229 units. More than eight-in-ten (82.5%) cars were sent overseas in March, with shipments to major destinations rising dramatically compared with 2020 when many markets were already shut before the UK itself entered lockdown.
Exports to the EU, US and Asia were all up in March, by 33.5%, 36.4% and 54.1% respectively. The EU remained by far the number one market for UK made cars, with more than half (51.9%) of all exported cars heading across the channel. Meanwhile, combined output of battery electric (BEV), plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and hybrid vehicles (HEV) amounted to a 21.5% share of all cars produced, up from 13.7% a year before, meaning one-in-five-cars produced in the UK is now alternatively fuelled.
Raw materials | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
Brent | 66.91 | 0.86 |
Silver | 26.161 | -0.26 |
Gold | 1781.238 | 0.26 |
Palladium | 2926.58 | -0.1 |
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
01:30 (GMT) | Australia | Export Price Index, q/q | Quarter I | 5.5% | |
01:30 (GMT) | Australia | Import Price Index, q/q | Quarter I | -1% | |
07:55 (GMT) | Germany | Unemployment Change | April | -8 | -10 |
07:55 (GMT) | Germany | Unemployment Rate s.a. | April | 6% | 6% |
08:00 (GMT) | Eurozone | Private Loans, Y/Y | March | 3% | |
08:00 (GMT) | Eurozone | M3 money supply, adjusted y/y | March | 13.3% | 10.2% |
09:00 (GMT) | Eurozone | Consumer Confidence | April | -10.8 | -8.1 |
09:00 (GMT) | Eurozone | Industrial confidence | April | 2 | 4 |
09:00 (GMT) | Eurozone | Economic sentiment index | April | 101 | 102.2 |
12:00 (GMT) | Germany | CPI, m/m | April | 0.5% | 0.5% |
12:00 (GMT) | Germany | CPI, y/y | April | 1.7% | 1.9% |
12:30 (GMT) | U.S. | Continuing Jobless Claims | April | 3674 | 3614 |
12:30 (GMT) | U.S. | PCE price index, q/q | Quarter I | 1.5% | |
12:30 (GMT) | U.S. | Initial Jobless Claims | April | 547 | 549 |
12:30 (GMT) | U.S. | GDP, q/q | Quarter I | 4.3% | 6.1% |
14:00 (GMT) | U.S. | Pending Home Sales (MoM) | March | -10.6% | |
18:00 (GMT) | U.S. | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | |||
23:30 (GMT) | Japan | Unemployment Rate | March | 2.9% | 2.9% |
23:30 (GMT) | Japan | Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y | April | -0.1% | 0% |
23:30 (GMT) | Japan | Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y | April | -0.2% | |
23:50 (GMT) | Japan | Industrial Production (MoM) | March | -1.3% | -2% |
23:50 (GMT) | Japan | Industrial Production (YoY) | March | -2.0% |
Pare | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
AUDUSD | 0.77879 | 0.26 |
EURJPY | 131.653 | 0.19 |
EURUSD | 1.2123 | 0.29 |
GBPJPY | 151.318 | 0.13 |
GBPUSD | 1.39323 | 0.21 |
NZDUSD | 0.72562 | 0.71 |
USDCAD | 1.23135 | -0.71 |
USDCHF | 0.9092 | -0.47 |
USDJPY | 108.585 | -0.1 |
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