Forex-novosti i prognoze od 29-01-2018

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 65.52 -0.94%

Gold 1,338.70 -0.99%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei -2.54 23629.34 -0.01%

TOPIX +1.06 1880.45 +0.06%

Hang Seng -187.23 32966.89 -0.56%

CSI 300 -79.28 4302.02 -1.81%

Euro Stoxx 50 -4.37 3643.04 -0.12%

FTSE 100 +5.99 7671.53 +0.08%

DAX -15.69 13324.48 -0.12%

CAC 40 -7.56 5521.59 -0.14%

DJIA -177.23 26439.48 -0.67%

S&P 500 -19.34 2853.53 -0.67%

NASDAQ -39.27 7466.50 -0.52%

S&P/TSX -144.50 16094.72 -0.89%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2382 -0,30%

GBP/USD $1,4076 -0,49%

USD/CHF Chf0,93742 +0,41%

USD/JPY Y108,95 +0,22%

EUR/JPY Y134,91 -0,07%

GBP/JPY Y153,359 -0,26%

AUD/USD $0,8095 -0,21%

NZD/USD $0,7321 -0,46%

USD/CAD C$1,23371 +0,09%

00:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence December 6 12

06:30 France GDP, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter IV 0.6% 0.6%

07:00 Switzerland Trade Balance December 2.633 2.54

07:45 France Consumer spending December 2.2% 0.4%

08:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator January 111.3 110.9

09:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln December 4.9 4.8

09:30 United Kingdom Consumer credit, mln December 1.4 1.3

09:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals December 65.14 66

10:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Finally) January 0.5 1.3

10:00 Eurozone Industrial confidence January 9.1 8.9

10:00 Eurozone Business climate indicator January 1.66 1.70

10:00 Eurozone Economic sentiment index January 116.0 116.3

10:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Preliminary) Quarter IV 0.6% 0.6%

10:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Preliminary) Quarter IV 2.6% 2.6%

13:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Preliminary) January 0.6% -0.6%

13:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Preliminary) January 1.7% 1.7%

14:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y November 6.4% 6.3%

15:00 U.S. Consumer confidence January 122.1 123.0

15:30 United Kingdom BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks

16:30 Eurozone ECB's Yves Mersch Speaks

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Preliminary) December 0.5% 1.5%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Preliminary) December 3.6% 1.9%

The major stock markets in the US ended the session mixed: the S & P 500 and Dow pulled back from record levels amid a recession in Apple shares (AAPL) after media reports of concerns about the demand for the iPhone X, while the Nasdaq index grew moderately.

Meanwhile, as shown by data provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, in January, the business activity of Texas producers improved, despite the experts' forecast for a fall. According to the report, the production index of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in January rose to 33.4 points from 29.7 points in December. The latter value was the highest for more than 12 years. Analysts had expected the decline to 25.3 points.

Oil prices fell by more than 1% on Monday, as the increase in production in the US undermines OPEC and Russia's efforts to tighten supplies. Pressure on oil was also provided by the resumed strengthening of the US currency. However, prices were still on the way to their strongest start of the year in five years. This month, Brent oil has risen in price by about 6.3%, which is the maximum growth in January from 2013.

Most components of the DOW index finished trading in the red (23 of 30). The leader of growth was the shares of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS, + 1.75%). Outsider were shares of Caterpillar Inc. (CAT, -2.58%).

All S & P sectors recorded a decline. The largest decrease was in the base resources sector (-1.3%).

At closing:

DJIA -0.67% 26.439.48 -177.23

Nasdaq + 0.75% 7.466.50 +55.34

S & P -0.67% 2,853.52 -19.35

• Gov't expects exports to grow by 5.3 pct in 2018, imports seen rising 5.8 pct

U.S. stock-index futures fell on Monday, pulling back from record levels registered last week, and as investors brace for a busy week ahead.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 23,629.34 -2.54 -0.01%

Hang Seng 32,966.89 -187.23 -0.56%

Shanghai 3,523.50 -34.63 -0.97%

S&P/ASX 6,075.40 +25.40 +0.42%

FTSE 7,676.71 +11.17 +0.15%

CAC 5,532.21 +3.06 +0.06%

DAX 13,325.81 -14.36 -0.11%

Crude $65.69 (-0.68%)

Gold $1,342.30 (-0.72%)

Personal income increased $58.7 billion (0.4 percent) in December according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $48.0 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $54.2 billion (0.4 percent).

Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in December and Real PCE increased 0.3 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. The increase in personal income in December primarily reflected increases in wages and salaries and personal interest income.

The $34.4 billion increase in real PCE in December reflected an increase of $11.1 billion in spending for goods and a $23.2 billion increase in spending for services. Within goods, new motor vehicles was the leading contributor to the increase. Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was spending for electricity and gas.

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) reiterated with a Outperform at Cowen

Apple (AAPL) target raised to $220 from $200 at Cascend Securities

Facebook (FB) target raised to $225 from $220 at Deutsche Bank

Boeing (BA) target raised to $395 from $282 at Berenberg

Starbucks (SBUX) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Bernstein

January 30

Before the Open:

McDonald's (MCD). Consensus EPS $1.59, Consensus Revenues $5228.71 mln.

Pfizer (PFE). Consensus EPS $0.56, Consensus Revenues $13674.61 mln.

January 31

Before the Open:

Boeing (BA). Consensus EPS $2.88, Consensus Revenues $24780.29 mln.

After the Close:

AT&T (T). Consensus EPS $0.65, Consensus Revenues $41207.68 mln.

Facebook (FB). Consensus EPS $1.97, Consensus Revenues $12546.12 mln.

Microsoft (MSFT). Consensus EPS $0.86, Consensus Revenues $28408.54 mln.

February 1

Before the Open:

Altria (MO). Consensus EPS $0.80, Consensus Revenues $4810.21 mln.

DowDuPont (DWDP). Consensus EPS $0.66, Consensus Revenues $19439.85 mln.

Int'l Paper (IP). Consensus EPS $1.19, Consensus Revenues $6005.84 mln.

MasterCard (MA). Consensus EPS $1.12, Consensus Revenues $3254.10 mln.

After the Close:

Alphabet (GOOG). Consensus EPS $9.98, Consensus Revenues $31861.22 mln.

Amazon (AMZN). Consensus EPS $1.83, Consensus Revenues $59847.86 mln.

Apple (AAPL). Consensus EPS $3.82, Consensus Revenues $87004.00 mln.

Visa (V). Consensus EPS $0.99, Consensus Revenues $4818.74 mln.

February 2

Before the Open:

Chevron (CVX). Consensus EPS $1.24, Consensus Revenues $39019.63 mln.

Exxon Mobil (XOM). Consensus EPS $1.03, Consensus Revenues $75274.64 mln.

Merck (MRK). Consensus EPS $0.94, Consensus Revenues $10487.09 mln.

• Says important task for the Riksbank is to promote efficiency and stability in the financial system

• Says policy rates remaining at their present levels well past the end of our net purchases will contribute to holding the short to intermediate portions of the yield curve in check

• Sight deposits of domestic banks at 465.13 bln chf in week ending january 26 versus 468.854 bln chf a week earlier

• Fx market volatility has heightened

• Will continue to monitor fx market closely

• France's ratings balance a large, wealthy and diversified economy, strong and effective civil and social institutions

• French president is a friend of mine, I like him a lot

• I would go back into the paris climate accord but it has to be a good deal for the United States

• Global economy is doing well in large part due to the United States

• I am shaking things up but the country needed to be shaken up

The index of import prices rose by 3.8% on an annual average in 2017 compared with 2016 (2016: -3.1% compared with 2015), as reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). This was the highest price increase since 2011 (+6.4% compared with 2010).

In December 2017 the index of import prices increased by 1.1% compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. This was the lowest price increase since November 2016 (+0.3% compared with November 2015). In November and in October 2017 the annual rates of change were +2.7% and +2.6%, respectively. From November to December 2017 the index rose by 0.3%.

In 2017 the index of import prices, excluding crude oil and mineral oil products, was on an annual average 2.7% above the level of a year earlier. In December 2017 it increased by 0.4% compared to December 2016 and in comparison with November 2017 it slightly rose by 0.1%.

European stock markets erased earlier gains and turned firmly lower on Thursday, yanked lower by a euro rally after the European Central Bank said eurozone growth was surprisingly strong and offered only limited pushback against the Trump administration's embrace of dollar weakness.

U.S. equity benchmarks on Friday surged to session highs, finishing the day squarely in record territory and booking a fourth straight weekly advance. A reading of fourth-quarter gross domestic product came in slightly softer than expected but was viewed by investors as healthy enough not to derail the perception that the economy is on firm footing.

Asian stocks started the week higher as a steady U.S. dollar helped to calm investor concerns. Last week, the dollar slid to a series of three-year lows, following comments from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that were interpreted as being accepting of a weaker dollar.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2567 (2759)

$1.2541 (1102)

$1.2501 (1638)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2412

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2369 (733)

$1.2341 (709)

$1.2309 (1523)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 9 is 132145 contracts (according to data from January, 26) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1850 (7037);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4339 (240)

$1.4311 (1147)

$1.4264 (926)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.4135

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.4049 (82)

$1.4020 (414)

$1.3987 (132)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 9 is 44303 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3600 (3462);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 9 is 39372 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3400 (3043);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.89 versus 0.88 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 26

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.