Forex-novosti i prognoze od 21-11-2019

Major US stocks declined moderately as investors continued to weigh conflicting reports of recent developments in US-China trade negotiations.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that during a telephone conversation believed to have taken place at the end of last week, Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Liu He invited US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Finance Minister Steven Mnuchin to another round of talks in Beijing . It is unclear whether the US negotiators accepted Liu’s invitation. However, according to WSJ, US officials are ready to meet with their Chinese counterparts.

Meanwhile, the South China Morning Post (SCMP), a Chinese newspaper, said that U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports, which are due to take effect on December 15, may be delayed even if a trade deal had not been signed by then. The publication also notes that the parties are "on the verge" of reaching an agreement, citing a source close to the Trump administration. This information appeared after Reuters reported on Wednesday that the signing of the “first phase” of the trade deal could be postponed to next year, as China insists on a wider tariff reduction, and the Trump administration is raising its own demands.

The focus was also on US data. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said that in October home sales on the secondary market rose 1.9% to an annual rate of 5.46 million, after falling 2.5% to 5.360 million in September. Economists had expected sales in the secondary housing market to rise to 5.47 million from the 5.38 million originally reported in the previous month. According to the report, sales recovery in the secondary housing market was mainly driven by strong growth in the South, where existing home sales rose 4.4% to 2.350 million. Midwestern home sales also rose 1.6%, while home sales on Northeast and West fell 1.4% and 0.9%, respectively.

DOW components completed trading mixed (15 in the black, 15 in the black). Outsider were the shares of The Procter & Gamble Company (PG; -1.59%). The biggest gainers were Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM; + 2.41%).

Almost all S&P sectors recorded a decline. Only the raw materials sector (+ 0.8%) and the health sector (+ 0.2%) showed growth. The largest decline was recorded by the conglomerate sector (-0.5%).

At the time of closing:

Dow 27,766.29 -54.80 -0.20%

S&P 500 3,103.54 -4.92 -0.16%

Nasdaq 100 8,506.21  -20.5 -0.24%

• Says Fed in 'really good spot' following three rate cuts
• Risks tiled to the downside, citing weak investment
• Sees U.S. GDP growth of around 2% next year, around trend
• It's worth considering a standing repo facility

• Says U.S. consumer is still strong
• We are seeing wages pick up for entry-level jobs 'these folks are long-overdue for a raise'
• Forecasts continued growth, but says trade is a ‘big risk’
  

FX Strategists at UOB Group believe that a move to the 0.6465 level in NZD/USD seems to have lost momentum as of late.

• "24-hour view: Our expectation for NZD to “advance further” was incorrect as it traded sideways within a 0.6405/0.6436 range. Further sideway trading is expected for today even though the slightly weakened underlying tone suggests NZD is likely to trade at a lower range of 0.6395/0.6430.
• Next 1-3 weeks: Despite the strong gain of +0.51% yesterday (0.6431), the outlook for NZD has not changed much. We continue to hold the same view from last Friday (15 Nov, spot 0.6380) wherein NZD is “expected to trade sideways between 0.6350 and 0.6465 for a while more”. In other words, the risk for a sustained raise above 0.6465 is not high."

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced on Thursday that the U.S. existing home sales rose 1.9 percent m-o-m to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.46 million in October from a revised 5.36 million in September (originally 5.38 million).

Economists had forecast home resales increasing to a 5.47 million-unit pace last month.

In y-o-y terms, existing-home sales rose 4.6 percent in October.

According to the report, single-family home sales stood at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.87 million in October, down from 4.77 million in September, but up 5.4 percent from a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $273,600 in October 2019, up 6.2 percent from October 2018. Meanwhile, existing condominium and co-op sales were recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 units in October, about even with the previous month and 1.7 percent lower than a year ago. The median existing condo price was $248,500 in October, which is an increase of 5.6 percent from a year ago.

The NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun noted that this sales advance is encouraging and he expects added growth in the coming months. “Historically-low interest rates, continuing job expansion, higher weekly earnings and low mortgage rates are undoubtedly contributing to these higher numbers,” said Yun. “We will likely continue to see sales climb as long as potential buyers are presented with an adequate supply of inventory.”

The European Commission reported on Thursday its flash estimate showed the consumer confidence indicator for the Eurozone increased 0.4 points to -7.2 in November from the previous month.

Economists had expected the index to edge up to -7.3.

Considering the European Union (EU) as a whole, consumer sentiment rose 0.6 points to -6.7.

Given these gains, both indicators remain on a broadly horizontal trajectory well above their respective long-term averages of -10.6 (Eurozone) and -9.9 (EU), the report said.

FX Strategists at UOB Group believe there is still room for GBP/USD to advance beyond the key 1.30-mark in the near term.

• "24-hour view: Our view for GBP yesterday was, “risk is tilted to the downside towards 1.2900” but “the next support at 1.2875 is likely ‘safe’ for today”. GBP subsequently dipped to 1.2888 before recovering to end the day little changed at 1.2923 (-0.02%). The mild downward pressure we detected yesterday appears to have eased. The current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase. In other words, GBP is expected to trade sideways for now, likely between 1.2900 and 1.2950.
• Next 1-3 weeks: Our’ strong support’ level at 1.2875 is still intact as GBP recovered after touching 1.2888 and ended the day little changed in NY at 1.2923 (-0.02%). As highlighted yesterday (20 Nov, spot at 1.2925), only a break of 1.2875 would indicate the current mild upward pressure has eased. Until then, there is still chance for GBP to move towards last month’s peak at 1.3012. That said, after the price action over the past couple of days, the probability for such a scenario has decreased. Looking forward, if GBP were to move below 1.2875, it could trade sideways for a period."

• Says Canada's economy is in a good place overall
• We're still quite stimulative where we are today
• We want to do whatever we can to boost trend line
• Starting to see glimmer of response in global easing
• Global financial conditions have eased a lot

Analysts at Nordea Markets think the ECB will ease policy again next year as the October monetary policy account indicates that the Governing Council members needed time to make up their minds about the next steps.

• “We expect another policy package in March next year, consisting of a 10bp cut to the deposit rate and an additional €20bn per month of APP. The euro area economic outlook is weak and inflation is set to stay well below target, which merits more monetary policy stimulus. Since the last meeting, GDP growth and core inflation numbers came in a bit stronger than expected, but the PMIs are still at very low levels. The last round of PMIs ahead of the next ECB meeting will come in tomorrow.”

FX Strategists at UOB Group see EUR/USD extending the consolidative phase in the next weeks.

• "24-hour view: Expectation for EUR to “edge higher” did not materialize as it traded sideways within a 1.1051/1.1081 range before ending the day largely unchanged at 1.1072 (-0.05%). The underlying tone still appears to be slightly positive and we continue to see chance for EUR to edge higher towards 1.1095. The strong resistance at 1.1115 is not expected to come into the picture. Support is at 1.1060 followed by 1.1040.
• Next 1-3 weeks: EUR traded in a tight 22 pips range yesterday (between 1.1061 and 1.1083), the second smallest 1-day range so far this year. The quiet price action offers no fresh clues and we continue to hold on to the same view from Monday (18 Nov, spot at 1.1055). The current price action is still viewed as part of a 1.1010/1.1115 sideway-trading range even though the near-term bias is on the upside. Looking forward, if EUR were to crack 1.1115, the focus would shift to 1.1150. All in, the current mild upward pressure is expected to remain intact unless EUR drops back below 1.1040 within these few days."

U.S. stock-index futures traded flat on Thursday, as investors assessed the latest reports surrounding the U.S.-China trade talks.

Global Stocks:

Prakash Sakpal, ING's economist in Asia, suggests that China’s industrial profits and manufacturing and non-manufacturing purchasing manager indexes (PMI) should reflect the economy reeling under the trade tensions with the US. 

• "Just about a month ago, things on the trade front were moving in the desired direction with both sides nearing a phase one deal soon, so to speak in mid-November. The latest news hasn’t been very good. First, the postponement of the deal signing to December, and now probably to 2020.
• The sentiment-driven PMIs may not capture the latest trade developments. Nor do we anticipate a dramatic improvement from a seasonal bounce in November that typically follows the holiday-related slump in October, leaving the manufacturing PMI a touch under the 50 threshold. And, the nearly two-decade low industrial production growth in October clearly bodes ill for the profits growth, which has been in the negative territory recently. All this keeps alive the risk of further slippage in China's overall economic growth in the last quarter of 2019."

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

The data from the Labor Department revealed on Thursday the number of applications for unemployment benefits remained unexpectedly unchanged last week, suggesting some softening in the labor market.

According to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits were flat at a seasonally adjusted 227,000 for the week ended November 16. That was the highest reading since June 22.

Economists had expected 219,000 new claims last week.

Claims for the prior week were revised upwardly to 227,000 from the initial estimate of 225,000.

Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of claims rose by 3,500 to 221,000 last week.

Chinese and U.S. trade negotiators continue to wrestle with exactly which trade tariffs will be removed as part of a “phase one” deal between China and the United States and under what conditions, sources from both sides told the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

There is still some modicum of optimism that a watered-down deal can be reached before new U.S tariffs go into effect on December 15, but even if the deal proves elusive, sources say it is likely they will be at least postponed.

If an agreement is not reached before December 15, those tariffs will therefore probably be delayed “because they are on the doorstep of this” phase one deal, said a source close to the Trump administration.

“I don’t think you’ll have something big delivered by December 15, but I do think that you will have something that forestalls the tariffs because it is in both sides’ interests,” the source said.

Macy's (M) reported Q3 FY 2019 earnings of $0.07 per share (versus $0.27 in Q3 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of -$0.01.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $5.173 bln (-4.3% y/y), missing analysts’ consensus estimate of $5.315 bln.

The company also issued downside guidance for FY 2019, projecting EPS of $2.57-2.77 (prior guidance of $2.85-3.05) vs. analysts’ consensus estimate of $2.80 and revenues of $24.35-24.47 bln (down 2-2.5%, previously saw approximately flat) vs. analysts’ consensus estimate of $24.85 bln.

M fell to $14.30 (-4.79 %) in pre-market trading.

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that with the FOMC minutes out of the way, the market will continue to look toward trade headlines for direction. 

• "The ongoing uncertainty about whether a Phase 1 deal can be finished suggests that volatility should remain elevated. This can also keep markets pricing in more 2020 rate cuts as the higher probability of trade tensions can keep economic fundamentals under pressure.
• The Philly Fed manufacturing survey will give us a new indication about the performance of the sector in November, with the consensus looking for a modest increase to 6.0 from 5.6 in October. Separately, existing-home sales are expected to increase 2.0% m/m in October following a -2.2% decline in the prior month. Sales have picked-up recently under an environment of low mortgage rates, which has also helped to support the rest of the housing sector.”

• Strong call was made for unity of the Governing Council at the latest meeting
• Open and frank discussions necessary but it is important to and to unite behind the Governing Council’s commitment to pursuing its inflation aim
• There was wide agreement that more information would be needed to reassess the inflation outlook and the impact of the monetary policy measures, particularly given that some of the measures had yet to be implemented – notably the resumption of net asset purchases and the introduction of a two-tier system for reserve remuneration
• Incoming data suggested that the weakness was likely to persist and raised the question as to whether it would continue for longer than had been anticipated in the September 2019 ECB staff projections
• The measures should be allowed more time to fully unfold their effects on the euro area economy and ultimately on inflation outcomes, taking into account the usual transmission lags of monetary policy
• A plea was made for patience to allow the measures taken in September to work through the economy, supporting a “wait and see” posture at the current juncture
  

Analysts at TD Securities provided a brief insight over Thursday's major event, a scheduled speech by the BoC Governor Poloz.

• “Amid a fairly-quiet data release schedule, today's "fireside chat" with Governor Poloz is our main focus for the North American session. USDCAD lurched higher after investors lurched on to the more dovish elements of a speech this week from Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins. With Canada's CPI still running at a decent clip, this move looks vulnerable to a pullback below the 200dma if Poloz fails to follow up with a dovish lean of his own.
• Governor Poloz will hold a fireside chat on "Economic change and the path forward" at 8:45 ET. However, a lack of media presence presents a challenge for markets; there will be no opening statement or press conference, and the Bank will not carry a webcast of the event. Given the Bank's recent messaging, we expect the focus will remain on trade-offs between monetary easing and financial vulnerabilities, although it will be difficult to pick up any nuance from the Governor's remarks if all we see are headlines.
• On the data front, we will get ADP employment for October at 8:30 which will be looked to for confirmation of the soft LFS numbers. The October LFS showed 2.4k jobs lost, although stripping out self-employed workers (which are not captured by ADP) showed a more favourable 26k increase in public & private employment.”

Sean Callow, the Senior Currency Strategist at Westpac provided his view on the recent escalation of the U.S.-China trade disputes, which might keep a lid on the US Treasury bond yields, the Australian dollar and the USD/JPY pair.

• “It is just 2 weeks ago that a spokesman for China’s Commerce Ministry declared that the US and China had agreed to remove tariffs on each other’s goods in a phased manner. That day, the US 10 year Treasury yield rose as far as 1.97%. Showing the importance of trade relations, this was its highest yield since 1 August, which of course was the day that president Trump tweeted that the US would impose new tariffs from 1 September, accusing China of not delivering on promised purchases of US agricultural products and not stopping fentanyl shipments.
• That run towards 2.0% already seems a long time ago, with the 1.6% handle appearing to be the near term risk. We can’t blame the US economy for this reversal, with data flow such as retail sales not having much impact on yields. At the short end, Fed funds futures imply <5% chance of a 12 Dec rate cut, endorsing the Fed officials’ consistent line that the US economy does not need help from further easing this year.
• So the recent Treasury rally seems to reflect concern over the US economy beyond the short term and a resumption of flight to safety flows. There have been notable such movements on reports of further hurdles to a “phase one” deal. Only a week ago, WH advisor Larry Kudlow claimed the two sides were down to “short strokes”, implying a deal was close.
• It is hard to make such a case today, with news reports of a possible delay till at least the new year seeming more plausible. US Congress’s passage of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019 added to market concern of a deepening rift between Washington and Beijing. But the biggest hurdles are probably the familiar issues of how far the US is willing to lower tariffs in return for China’s pledges on US agricultural imports and IP. In coming days, we look for such concerns to persist, capping UST yields, A$ and USD/JPY.”

• OPEC+ so far has no plans to deepen current oil output cuts during December meeting
• It is more likely that OPEC+ will extend the agreement in December to send a positive message to the market
• The Saudis don't want oil prices to fall, they want to put a floor under the prices because of the (Aramco) IPO

• China will not resort to flood-style strong stimulus
• Confident about achieving full-year economic target

China has invited top U.S. trade negotiators for a new round of face-to-face talks in Beijing amid continued efforts to strike at least a limited deal, the Wall Street Journal reported citing unnamed sources.

The report said Chinese Vice Premier Liu He invited U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin for a meeting in Beijing, adding that Beijing hopes the round of talks can take place before next Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.

U.S. officials have indicated they would be willing to meet in person but have not committed to a date, the report said.

• 2019 global GDP growth at 2.9% (unchanged)

• 2020 global GDP growth at 2.9% (previously 3.0%)

• 2019 US GDP growth at 2.3% (previously 2.4%)

• 2020 US GDP growth at 2.0% (unchanged)

• 2019 China GDP growth at 6.2% (previously 6.1%)

• 2020 China GDP growth at 5.7% (unchanged)

• 2019 Eurozone GDP growth at 1.2% (previously 1.1%)

• 2020 Eurozone GDP growth at 1.1% (previously 1.0%)

• 2019 UK GDP growth at 1.2% (previously 1.0%)

• 2020 UK GDP growth at 1.0% (previously 0.9%)

• 2019 Japan GDP growth at 1.0% (unchanged)

• 2020 Japan GDP growth at 0.6% (unchanged)

In its latest report Moody’s revised down its 2022 outlook on the Emerging Markets (EM) amid rising trade, policy and political risks.

“Emerging market growth slowed significantly in 2019 and the outlook for emerging markets in 2020 has tipped over to negative due to uncertainties around trade, politics and policy.”, Moody’s said.

"Although recession risk is in focus globally, we do not expect a recession to materialize in any of the larger emerging market economies except in Argentina. Emerging markets will continue to have higher growth than developed markets with an expected average economic growth above 4.5% in 2020, compared with just under 1.5% across the largest advanced economies in 2020. However, growth rates are well below their historical averages, particularly in larger economics like Mexico, Russia, India and China". Moody's Senior Vice President Gersan Zurita noted:

China still has room for conventional monetary expansion, but its ability to deal successfully with a crisis depends on whether monetary policy can work together with fiscal and structural reform policies, China’s former central bank head Zhou Xiaochuan said

“We can still try to avoid getting very soon into the negative interest rates area, if we can successfully manage macroeconomic control in this regard,” Zhou said at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum. “Then we don’t need to consider that much about unconventional monetary policy.”

Global monetary authorities should think about how to prevent crises from occurring, and should “try our best” to avoid lowering interest rates all the way to zero before a crisis begins, Zhou said. He emphasized that rates in China are still much higher than in other developed nations.

Zhou, who led the People’s Bank of China from 2002-2018, said debt bubbles and the impact of the trade war with the U.S. would be his main concerns going forward.

According to the report from Office for National Statistics, borrowing (public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks, PSNB ex) in October 2019 was £11.2 billion, £2.3 billion more than in October 2018; this is the highest October borrowing for five years (since October 2014).

Borrowing in the current financial year-to-date (April 2019 to October 2019) was £46.3 billion, £4.3 billion more than in the same period last year; this is the highest April-to-October borrowing for two years (since 2017), though April-to-October 2018 remains the lowest in such a period for 12 years (since 2007).

Debt (public sector net debt excluding public sector banks, PSND ex) at the end of October 2019 was £1,798.5 billion (or 80.4% of gross domestic product, GDP), an increase of £32.1 billion (or a decrease of 1.1 percentage points) on October 2018.

Debt at the end of October 2019 excluding the Bank of England (mainly quantitative easing) was £1,615.0 billion (or 72.2% of GDP); this is an increase of £42.8 billion (or a decrease of 0.3 percentage points) on October 2018.

Federal Statistical Office said, Swiss industrial production logged its fastest growth in more than a year in the third quarter.

Industrial production grew 8% year-on-year in the third quarter, faster than the 4.4% increase in the second quarter. This was the fastest expansion since the second quarter of 2018, when output advanced 9.2%.

Meanwhile, construction output contracted 1.1% annually. The overall secondary sector production climbed 6.3% versus 3.3% growth registered in the second quarter.

Turnover on the secondary sector grew at a faster pace of 4.7% after rising 2% in the second quarter.

Suan Teck Kin, CFA, Head of Research at UOB Group, reviewed the recent move in the Chinese Loan Prime Rate (LPR).

“China’s Loan Prime Rate (LPR) latest fixings (Wed, 20 Nov) dipped a modest 5bps to 4.15% for the 1Y tenure) and to 4.80% for 5Y and above tenure, which was at the lower end of the range of our call of 5-10bps decline. While it is clear that China’s easing cycle has started, the pace of declines seen in the MLF, 7D reverse repo rate and the latest LPR fixings has been milder than we had anticipated, suggesting the authorities are taking a measured and cautious approach to guide interest rates lower. With the US-China trade tensions appearing to be easing and major central banks on pause mode, we are adjusting our forecasts to factor in a less aggressive downtrend in the LPR. We now project the 1Y LPR at 3.80% by mid-2020, instead of our earlier call of 3.65%”.

According to the analysts at Deutsche Bank the ECB monetary policy account and Fed speak will be closely watched among second-tier US macro releases in the day ahead.

“Turning to the day ahead, from central banks we can expect the ECB’s account of their October monetary policy meeting, as well as policy decision from South Africa. We’ll also hear from the ECB’s Mersch and de Guindos, along with the Fed’s Kashkari and Mester. In terms of data, we’ll get the Euro Area’s advance consumer confidence reading for November and the UK’s public finances for October. And from the US we’ll get the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook for November, existing home sales and the leading index for October, and weekly initial jobless claims. Finally, the OECD will be releasing their economic outlook, and we’ll get earnings from Thyssenkrupp and Macy’s. Back on this side of the Atlantic, the opposition Labour Party will be launching their election manifesto today.”

China needs to make better use of its various policy tools to boost the economy, Premier Li Keqiang said on Thursday, as growth teetered near three-decade lows and a partial trade deal with the United States remained elusive.

Monetary policy needs to place more stress on developing the real economy, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, Li told. He said China will use “efforts through all channels” to lower real interest rates.

“China’s prime rate is a little bit over 4% for one year so we still have room to deal with monetary policy expansion,” said former central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan on Thursday at a separate event in Beijing.

China’s economy has maintained a stable performance this year and the government is confident that it will achieve the main social and economic targets for 2019, said Li. Beijing will continue with a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, he said.

British employers offered the largest annual pay rises to staff in more than 10 years during the three months to October, though industry data provider XpertHR warned against drawing broad conclusions due to the small number of deals in the period.

Median annual pay settlements in the three months to October - a period when just 43 pay reviews were reported - jumped to 2.8% from 2.5% in the three months to September, their highest since December 2008. "A handful of higher-level deals have inflated the median," XpertHR said.

The 12-month average for pay rises remained at 2.5%, and many employers said they expected this to remain a benchmark for their next pay rises.

Official measures of wage growth, which tend to exceed the XpertHR measure due to promotions and job changes, hit an 11-year high of 3.9% in the three months to July but have fallen back a bit since then.

China will strive to reach a "phase one" trade agreement with the United States as both sides keep communication channels open, the Chinese commerce ministry said on Thursday, in an attempt to allay fears talks might be unraveling.

China is willing to work with the United States to resolve each other's core concerns on the basis of equality and mutual respect, and will try hard to reach a phase one deal, Gao Feng, spokesman at the ministry, told reporters.

"This is in line with the interests of both China and the United States, and of the world," Gao said.

Economists warn that the prolonged trade dispute between China and the United States is escalating risks to the global economy by disrupting supply chains, discouraging investment and dampening business confidence.

Officials from Beijing had suggested that Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump might sign a deal in early December.

An anticipated “phase one” trade deal between the U.S. and China will likely be inked, but the subsequent stages “remain distant,” according to one strategist at Morgan Stanley.

“Our base case is that the phase one trade deal gets done and that might be about as good as it gets, that phase two and phase three remain distant next year,” Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley, told CNBC.

Sheets’ comments come amid growing concerns over the state of trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, which have been embroiled in a protracted trade war for more than a year now. The trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies has weighed on financial markets and the global economic outlook.

“We do think the phase one deal, that there’s enough agreement there, that the bar is low enough, that there’s been broad agreement around a lot of those issues for some time that it can get done,” Sheets said.

Still, he acknowledged: “This is a huge assumption for the market.” “I think as markets have rallied over the last month, expectations for that phase one have become quite high and so that obviously increases the risk that if it’s not delivered, markets will be disappointed by that,” Sheets said.

According to Danske Bank analysts, Thursday's key focus will be on the incoming US-China trade-related headlines and the release of the minutes from the October ECB policy meeting.

“With few economic releases of notice, the market focus will probably remain on the prospects of China and the US reaching a phase one trade deal anytime soon or whether it risks slipping into next year as some news stories alluded to yesterday. In the euro area, the minutes from the October ECB meeting are due for release today. The meeting was rather uneventful and we expect the minutes to contain few new insights. However, we will scrutinise the minutes for the Governing Council's thinking on the QE ISIN limits and any views on whether these self-imposed rules could be bent. Furthermore, the minutes will also reveal whether the frictions in the Government Council we saw after the September meeting still linger. In Denmark, wage earner employment figures for September are due on Thursday. Employment rose by just 200 in August and job growth has generally stalled over the summer. Hence, the September figures will provide an even better insight into the extent of the slowdown in the labour market.”

Credit Suisse discusses its technical outlook and adopts a tactical bearish bias in the near-term.

"With the market still holding below 1.1094 and with the EUR outright completing a large top, we look for the downtrend to resume from here. Support moves to 1.1044/42 initially, below which would suggest the correction higher is over, with the next level then seen back at 1.0994/89. Beneath here would see the “reversal day” neutralised to suggest a deeper fall, with the “measured top objective” at 1.0963. Big picture we look for a move back to the 1.0879 and eventually 1.0815 – the 78.6% retracement of the 2017/2018 bull trend. Above 1.1094 would instead see the top neutralized, with the next level then seen at 1.1140 initially, before the more important 1.1173/79 cluster of resistance, which is likely to prove a tough barrier if reached.," CS adds. 

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1166 (5316)

$1.1133 (3058)

$1.1109 (2006)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1076

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1055 (3755)

$1.1028 (3356)

$1.0990 (3331)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 6 is 100369 contracts (according to data from November, 20) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (5592);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2992 (2530)

$1.2961 (736)

$1.2944 (2117)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2928

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2885 (228)

$1.2865 (307)

$1.2839 (1776)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 6 is 30314 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (5293);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 6 is 33363 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2200 (2280);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.10 versus 1.09 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 20

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.