Forex-novosti i prognoze od 21-01-2021

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21.01.2021
23:30
Japan: National Consumer Price Index, y/y, December -1.2
23:30
Japan: National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y, December -1 (forecast -1.1%)
21:45
New Zealand: CPI, q/q , Quarter IV 0.5% (forecast 0%)
21:45
New Zealand: CPI, y/y, Quarter IV 1.4% (forecast 1%)
20:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Friday, January 22, 2021
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
00:01 (GMT) United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence January -26 -29
00:30 (GMT) Australia Retail Sales, M/M December 7.1% -2.5%
00:30 (GMT) Japan Manufacturing PMI January 50  
00:30 (GMT) Japan Nikkei Services PMI January 47.7  
07:00 (GMT) United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) December -3.8% 1.2%
07:00 (GMT) United Kingdom PSNB, bln December -31.6 -32.1
07:00 (GMT) United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) December 2.4% 4%
08:15 (GMT) France Manufacturing PMI January 51.1 50.5
08:15 (GMT) France Services PMI January 49.1 48.5
08:30 (GMT) Germany Services PMI January 47 45.3
08:30 (GMT) Germany Manufacturing PMI January 58.3 57.5
09:00 (GMT) Eurozone Manufacturing PMI January 55.2 54.5
09:00 (GMT) Eurozone Services PMI January 46.4 44.5
09:30 (GMT) United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing January 57.5 54
09:30 (GMT) United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services January 49.4 45
13:30 (GMT) Canada Retail Sales, m/m November 0.4% 0.1%
13:30 (GMT) Canada Retail Sales YoY November 7.5%  
13:30 (GMT) Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m November 0.0% 0.3%
14:45 (GMT) U.S. Services PMI January 54.8 53.6
14:45 (GMT) U.S. Manufacturing PMI January 57.1 56.5
15:00 (GMT) U.S. Existing Home Sales December 6.69 6.55
16:00 (GMT) U.S. Crude Oil Inventories January -3.247 -1.167
18:00 (GMT) U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count January 287  
20:00
DJIA +0.15% 31,235.50 +47.12 Nasdaq +0.66% 13,546.02 +88.78 S&P +0.21% 3,859.93 +8.08
17:00
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 6,715.42 -24.97 -0.37% DAX 13,906.67 -14.70 -0.11% CAC 40 5,590.79 -37.65 -0.67%
16:04
ECB: Holistically determined - ING

Carsten Brzeski, the Global Head of Macro for ING Research, notes that after an exciting start to the new year with more lockdowns, US senate elections and a presidential inauguration, the ECB just offered a welcome portion of stability: an unexciting meeting. 

"As expected, the European Central Bank, left all policy instruments unchanged and its official communication was almost a verbatim copy of the December communication. The assessment of the economic and inflation outlooks was also broadly unchanged from the December meeting."

"ECB president Christine Lagarde touched upon the mixed positive and negative developments but concluded that there were no reasons to change the broader assessment from the December projections. As a reminder, back in December the ECB staff projections expected GDP growth of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, but given recent developments, we think this is a tad optimistic."

"For the real aficionados, the ECB added a new paragraph to its monetary policy decisions... This paragraph stresses the flexibility of the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) by stating that not the entire amount of the programme has to be used but at the same time if need be the amount could be increased. However, this paragraph is not really new. It appeared exactly in its current form in the introductory statement of the December meeting."

"Putting it into the policy decision gives it somewhat more importance. Key in this decision are what the ECB calls “preserving favourable financing conditions”. What these favourable financing conditions are? According to Lagarde, the assessment of financing conditions was not driven by a single indicator, but by a holistic approach, including bank lending, credit conditions, sovereign and corporate yields."

15:43
U.S. initial jobless claims fall, but still point to fragile labor market - Wells Fargo Securities

According to ActionForex, analysts at Wells Fargo Securities note that the larger-than-expected decline in initial jobless claims last week is a welcome development, but at 900K, new filings remain elevated. Another negative print for payrolls in January remains within the realm of possibility.

"After leaping over the first full week of January, new filings for unemployment benefits fell the week ending Jan. 16. However, at 900K, initial claims remain elevated as the jobs market continues to suffer under efforts to contain COVID."

"This week’s claims numbers cover the survey week for the January employment report. Between the December survey week, initial filings edged up by 8K.  That compares with an increase of 144K between the November and December surveys and suggests that another decline in payrolls remains a real possibility in the January employment report. The four-week average rose to 848K, the highest since September, and indicates that labor market conditions continued to generally deteriorate over the past month."

"In contrast to the drop in filings for regular benefits on both a seasonally and non-seasonally adjusted basis, initial claims for the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program jumped to 424K (not seasonally adjusted). The program, which covers gig workers and the self-employed, was extended at the last minute in December, so the increase may reflect a backlog of filings since the program was planned to expire."

15:22
Eurozone consumer confidence worsens more than forecast in January

The European Commission (EC) said on Thursday its flash estimate showed the consumer confidence indicator for the Eurozone fell by 1.7 points to -15.5 in January from a revised -13.8 in the previous month (originally -13.9). 

Economists had expected the index to decrease to -15.0.

Considering the European Union (EU) as a whole, consumer sentiment deteriorated by 1.6 points to -16.5.

Given this month’s declines, both indicators stood well below their long-term averages of -11.0 (Eurozone) and -10.6 (EU).

15:04
Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity expands more than expected in January

The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey, released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on Thursday, revealed the region's manufacturing activity revealed the region's manufacturing activity continued to grow in January 2021.

According to the survey, the diffusion index for current general activity climbed from a downwardly revised 9.1 in December 2020 to 26.5 this month. This was the highest reading since October 2020.

Economists had forecast the index to increase to 12.0.

A reading above 0 signals expansion, while a reading below 0 indicates contraction.

According to the report, the new orders index surged 28.1 points to 30.0 this month (the highest reading in three months), while the current employment index jumped 16.9 points to 22.5 and the current shipments index rose 10.7 points to 22.7. Elsewhere, the survey’s price indicators suggest that price increases were more widespread this month: the prices paid index climbed 20.5 points to 45.4 and the prices received index also increased 20.5 points to 36.6.

15:01
Eurozone: Consumer Confidence, January -15.5 (forecast -15)
14:45
Canada’s new housing prices rise 0.3 percent in December

Statistics Canada reported on Thursday the New Housing Price Index (NHPI) rose 0.3 percent m-o-m in December, following a 0.6 percent m-o-m advance in the previous month.

According to the report, new home prices increased in 17 out of the 27 census metropolitan areas (CMAs) surveyed in December, with Oshawa (+3.1 percent m-o-m) recording the largest monthly gain in new home prices due to strong market conditions. Meanwhile, Edmonton (-0.2 percent m-o-m) was the only CMA with decreased new home prices in December due to lower negotiated selling prices.

In y-o-y terms, NHPI climbed 4.6 percent in December, the same pace as in the previous month. This remained the largest y-o-y increase since April 2008.

14:33
U.S. Stocks open: Dow +0.11%, Nasdaq +0.46%, S&P +0.15%
14:27
Before the bell: S&P futures +0.03%, NASDAQ futures +0.20%

U.S. stock-index futures were little changed on Thursday, a day after the major averages hit record highs on inauguration day of Joe Biden, who is expected to provide more pandemic relief and speedy vaccine rollouts.


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

28,756.86

+233.60

+0.82%

Hang Seng

29,927.76

-34.71

-0.12%

Shanghai

3,621.26

+38.17

+1.07%

S&P/ASX

6,823.70

+53.30

+0.79%

FTSE

6,745.77

+5.38

+0.08%

CAC

5,600.70

-27.74

-0.49%

DAX

13,931.86

+10.49

+0.08%

Crude oil

$52.97


-0.64%

Gold

$1,864.50


-0.11%

13:57
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


3M Co

MMM

170.5

0.28(0.16%)

4782

ALCOA INC.

AA

22.1

-0.74(-3.24%)

81160

ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

42.2

0.10(0.24%)

13696

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

3,281.21

17.83(0.55%)

110816

American Express Co

AXP

129

0.06(0.05%)

2565

AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP

AIG

42.06

-0.02(-0.05%)

1442

Apple Inc.

AAPL

133.83

1.80(1.36%)

1711635

AT&T Inc

T

28.99

0.03(0.10%)

68370

Boeing Co

BA

211.61

0.16(0.08%)

99713

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

193.11

0.77(0.40%)

5626

Chevron Corp

CVX

94.02

-1.36(-1.43%)

28128

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

44.97

-0.37(-0.82%)

49184

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

63.2

-0.05(-0.08%)

59999

E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co

DD

82.4

-1.89(-2.24%)

7365

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

49.01

-0.52(-1.05%)

93647

Facebook, Inc.

FB

268.7

1.22(0.46%)

192153

FedEx Corporation, NYSE

FDX

252.43

0.47(0.19%)

4987

Ford Motor Co.

F

11.21

0.35(3.22%)

3591329

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

31.1

0.13(0.42%)

97808

General Electric Co

GE

11.41

0.02(0.18%)

276957

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

56.7

0.84(1.50%)

847723

Goldman Sachs

GS

290.01

-0.46(-0.16%)

16989

Hewlett-Packard Co.

HPQ

25.3

0.10(0.40%)

1792

Home Depot Inc

HD

275.55

1.25(0.46%)

5113

HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.

HON

208.09

0.01(0.00%)

1167

Intel Corp

INTC

58.62

-0.05(-0.09%)

235520

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

130.6

0.52(0.40%)

34758

International Paper Company

IP

51.45

0.46(0.90%)

752

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

162.92

0.54(0.33%)

14952

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

136

0.03(0.02%)

24560

McDonald's Corp

MCD

213.85

0.22(0.10%)

16313

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

82.5

0.04(0.05%)

6054

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

224.2

-0.14(-0.06%)

277787

Nike

NKE

142.98

0.18(0.13%)

5116

Pfizer Inc

PFE

36.55

0.05(0.14%)

176038

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

130.96

-0.18(-0.14%)

47002

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

105.26

-0.20(-0.19%)

10391

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

853.3

2.85(0.34%)

359203

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

48.76

0.08(0.16%)

82705

Travelers Companies Inc

TRV

148.15

3.13(2.16%)

6601

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

47.82

0.22(0.46%)

164589

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

350.18

-0.66(-0.19%)

2657

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

57.13

-0.13(-0.23%)

21226

Visa

V

206.51

0.50(0.24%)

14764

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

145.65

0.14(0.10%)

10493

Walt Disney Co

DIS

174.66

1.02(0.59%)

25013

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

68.83

-1.52(-2.16%)

6538

13:54
ECB's president Lagarde: ECB monitoring FX for impact on inflation

  • Incoming data confirm previous near-term assessment
  • Eurozone's economy likely contracted in Q4
  • Pandemic poses serious risks; vaccination important milestone
  • ECB ready to adjust all instruments as needed
  • Uncertainty remains high
  • Inflation remains very low
  • Sees downside risks to short term outlook, but less pronounced
  • Renewed infections and lockdowns are disrupting activity
  • Services severely curbed
  • Interest rates to remain at 0 until at least inflation 'robustly converges' to our target of close to, but below 2%
  • Sees upward pressure on inflation over medium term once the pandemic fades
  • Market-based expectations of inflation expectations have increased slightly
  • ECB will monitor developments in exchange rate

13:48
U.S. housing starts and building permits surge in December

U.S. housing starts and building permits surge in December

The Commerce Department reported on Thursday the housing starts surged by 5.8 percent m-o-m in December to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.669 million (the highest since September 2006), while building permits jumped by 4.5 percent m-o-m to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.709 (the highest level since August 2006).

Economists had forecast housing starts decreasing to a pace of 1.560 million units last month and building permits dropping to a pace of 1.600 million units.

Data for November was revised to show homebuilding growing to a pace of 1.578 million units, instead of increasing at a rate of 1.547 million units as previously reported.

13:38
U.S. weekly jobless claims total 900,000

U.S. weekly jobless claims total 900,000

The data from the Labor Department revealed on Thursday the number of applications for unemployment fell slightly more than forecast last week.

According to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits decreased by 26,000 to 900,000 for the week ended January 16. Still, claims remained well above pre-pandemic levels.

Economists had expected 910,000 new claims last week.

Claims for the prior week were revised downwardly to 926,000 from the initial estimate of 965,000.

Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of claims grew to 848,000 from a downwardly revised 824,500 in the previous week.

Continuing claims fell to 5,054,000 from a downwardly revised 5,181,000 in the previous week.

13:32
U.S.: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, January 26.5 (forecast 12)
13:31
Canada: New Housing Price Index, YoY, December 4.6%
13:31
Canada: New Housing Price Index, MoM, December 0.3%
13:30
U.S.: Continuing Jobless Claims, January 5.054 (forecast 5400)
13:30
U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims, January 900 (forecast 910)
13:30
U.S.: Building Permits, December 1.709 (forecast 1.60)
13:30
U.S.: Housing Starts, December 1.669 (forecast 1.56)
13:25
European session review: EUR edges up after the announcement of ECB’s monetary policy decisions

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
09:30United KingdomBOE Credit Conditions Survey     
11:00United KingdomCBI industrial order books balanceJanuary-25-35-38
12:45EurozoneECB Interest Rate Decision 0%0%0%

EUR ticked up against its major rivals in the European session on Thursday after the release of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy statements, which, in general, offered nothing new for market participants. 

At the ECB’s January gathering, its policymakers decided to take no action on interest rates or monetary stimulus, as widely expected. The Bank’s main refinancing rate, marginal lending facility rate and the deposit facility rate were left unchanged at  0.00 percent, 0.25 percent and -0.50 percent, respectively. The ECB’s officials also repeated the pledge to continue the purchases under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) with a total envelope of EUR1,850 billion. The purchases under the PEPP were reiterated to be conducted until at least the end of March 2022 and, in any case, until the ECB’s governing council judges that the coronavirus crisis phase is over. The Bank also repeated its promise to continue to provide ample liquidity through its refinancing operations (in particular, TLTRO III) as well as to continue purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) at a monthly pace of EUR20 billion.

The announced outcomes of the ECB’s latest meeting were in line with investors’ expectations. Market participants’ attention is now turning towards the press conference by the ECB’s President Christine Lagar (due at 13:30 GMT), during which she may provide ECB’s views on a potential impact of the latest round of stricter lockdown measures in Europe on the region’s economy, progress on the roll-out of vaccination across the EU, a rapid strengthening of EUR and inflation expectations.

13:01
ECB leaves its main refinancing rate at 0.00%, pledges to continue purchases under PEPP with total envelope of EUR1,850 billion

The European Central Bank (ECB) left its main refinancing rate unchanged at 0.00 percent on Thursday, as widely expected. Its interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility were also left unchanged at 0.25 percent and -0.50 percent, respectively.

In its policy statement, the ECB said:

  • Governing Council expects key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen inflation outlook robustly converge to level sufficiently close to, but below, 2%;
  • Governing Council will continue purchases under pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) with total envelope of EUR1,850 billion;
  • Net asset purchases under PEPP will be conducted until at least end of March 2022 and, in any case, until Governing Council judges that the coronavirus crisis phase is over;
  • Envelope of PEPP can be recalibrated if required to maintain favourable financing conditions to help counter negative pandemic shock to path of inflation;
  • Governing Council will continue to reinvest principal payments from maturing securities purchased under PEPP until at least end of 2023;
  • Net purchases under asset purchase programme (APP) will continue at monthly pace of EUR20 billion;
  • Monthly net asset purchases under APP are expected to run for as long as necessary to reinforce accommodative impact of ECB policy rates, and to end shortly before ECB starts raising key interest rates;
  • Governing Council will continue to provide ample liquidity through its refinancing operations;
  • Governing Council continues to stand ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in sustained manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry

12:45
Eurozone: ECB Interest Rate Decision, 0% (forecast 0%)
12:43
Company News: United Airlines (UAL) posts bigger-than-expected quarterly loss

United Airlines (UAL) reported Q4 FY 2020 loss of $7.00 per share (versus earnings of $2.67 per share in Q4 FY 2019), worse than analysts’ consensus estimate of -$6.42 per share.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $3.412 bln (-68.7% y/y), missing analysts’ consensus estimate of $3.471 bln.

The company also issued downside guidance for Q1 FY 2021, projecting revenues being down 65-70% from Q1 FY 2019, which could be computed as $2.88-3.36 bln versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $4.12 bln.

UAL fell to $44.20 (-2.17%) in pre-market trading.

12:37
USD: A return to normality points to further USD downside this year - ING

USD: A return to normality points to further USD downside this year - ING

Chris Turner, Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEE at ING, notes that the rebound in stock markets on the first day of President Joseph Biden in office lifted cyclical G10 currencies and weighed on the dollar.

"The message of reconciliation from the new President underscored a clear shift away from the Trump administration and should reduce hurdles for cyclical currencies to benefit from the global economic recovery vs the dollar and should, along with a non-reacting Federal Reserve to rising inflation, help to facilitate the broad-based USD decline."


12:25
Company News: Alcoa (AA) quarterly earnings beat analysts’ estimate

Alcoa (AA) reported Q4 FY 2020 earnings of $0.26 per share (versus -$0.31 per share in Q4 FY 2019), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.07 per share.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $2.392 bln (-1.8% y/y), roughly in line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $2.372 bln.

AA fell to $22.34 (-2.19%) in pre-market trading.

12:17
Company News: Travelers (TRV) quarterly earnings beat analysts’ forecast

Travelers (TRV) reported Q4 FY 2020 earnings of $4.91 per share (versus $3.32 per share in Q4 FY 2019), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $3.15 per share.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $7.269 bln (+2.7% y/y), missing analysts’ consensus estimate of $7.388 bln.

TRV rose to $148.12 (+2.14%) in pre-market trading.

12:00
UK's prime minister Johnson: It's too early to say when we'll be able to lift restrictions

  • What we're seeing in the data is contagiousness of new variant of the virus

11:45
CNY expected to remain strong in 2021 - UOB

FXStreet reports that Economist Ho Woei Chen, CFA, and Senior FX Strategist Peter Chia at UOB Group believe the Chinese currency faces prospects of further upside this year.

“The CNY stays strong against the USD in the new year, gaining close to 1% at about 6.47 /USD year-till-date. This comes amidst a recent recovery of the broad USD against most G-10 and Asian FX underpinned by higher US Treasury yields. For 2021, we reiterate our view of further gains in the CNY backed by expectations of a sustained recovery in the Chinese economy this year together with stable monetary policy from the PBoC.”

“Overall, we expect the CNY to strengthen further to 6.35 /USD by 3Q21, a level last seen in May 2018 before the onset of the US-China trade conflict. Lastly, a key risk to our positive outlook on CNY is a further deterioration of US-China relations under the incoming Biden administration.” 

11:36
UK manufacturers’ order book balance worsens more than forecast in January

The latest survey by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) revealed on Thursday the UK manufacturers' order books worsened in January, reversing December’s strong improvement.

According to the report, the CBI's monthly factory order book balance decreased to -38 in January from -25 in the previous month. Economists had forecast the reading to come in at -35.

The CBI also reported that output volumes in the three months to January were broadly flat, following 15 consecutive months of drops (-2 from -6 in December). However, it was expected that output would decline once again in the next quarter (-24).

In other survey results, average cost growth in the quarter to January (+34) accelerated to its quickest pace since July 2018 (+36). Cost inflation was also forecast to accelerate further in the next quarter (+55), marking the highest expectations since July 2008 (+58). Meanwhile, average domestic prices grew in the quarter to January (+7) at their quickest pace since April 2019 (+11) and were seen to grow at a broadly similar rate next quarter (+4).

 “Output was broadly flat in this month’s quarterly survey, with the picture varying in different sectors. Manufacturers across the board are continuing to battle major headwinds, with domestic and export orders notably falling”, noted Rain Newton-Smith, CBI Chief Economist. “With growing costs and materials shortages mounting further pressure on firms at a time when they’re experiencing much less demand, the Government must avoid tapering off existing business support with a cliff edge in March.”

Meanwhile, Tom Crotty, Group Director at INEOS and Chair of the CBI Manufacturing Council, said: “While the start of 2021 is challenging, the COVID-19 vaccine drive brings with it a real sense of optimism for the future. The manufacturing sector can be an engine for UK’s economic recovery post-covid and firms are keen to work with government to make this happen. In the meantime however, it’s essential that the sector receives the support it needs to get through the next few critical months."

11:00
United Kingdom: CBI industrial order books balance, January -38 (forecast -35)
10:43
BOE Credit Conditions Survey

Supply

  • Lenders reported that the availability of secured credit to households was unchanged in the three months to end-November 2020 (Q4). Lenders expected the availability of secured credit to increase over the next three months to end-February 2021 (Q1).

  • Lenders reported that the availability of unsecured credit to households increased slightly in Q4 and was expected to remain unchanged over the next quarter.

  • Lenders reported that the overall availability of credit to the corporate sector was unchanged in Q4, decreasing for small businesses and remaining unchanged for medium and large firms. Overall availability was not expected to change in Q1.

Demand

  • Lenders reported that demand for secured lending for house purchase increased in Q4, but demand for secured lending for remortgaging was unchanged over the same period. Demand for secured lending for house purchase was expected to decrease slightly in Q1, but demand for secured lending for remortgaging was expected to increase slightly.

  • Lenders reported that overall demand for unsecured lending increased in Q4, and was expected to increase further in Q1. Within the overall figure, demand for credit card lending increased slightly and demand for other unsecured lending increased in Q4. Demand for credit card lending was expected to increase over the next quarter, with demand for other unsecured lending expected to remain unchanged.

  • Lenders reported that demand for corporate lending from small businesses decreased slightly in Q4, and demand from medium sized businesses decreased whereas demand from large private non-financial corporations (PNFCs) increased over the same period. Demand for corporate lending was expected to decrease for small businesses in Q1 but increase for medium and large businesses over the next quarter.

10:25
People’s Bank of China stays on hold amidst ongoing recovery – UOB

FXStreet reports that UOB Group’s Economist review the recent decision by the PBoC.

“The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) kept its Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged … with the 1Y LPR and the 5Y & above LPR set at 3.85% and 4.65% respectively.”

“Coronavirus resurgence that put some Chinese cities under lockdown has emerged as one of the key near-term risks, particularly with the Lunar New Year in February that typically sees mass movement of people. However, with the sustained momentum in economic recovery since 2Q20, the PBoC is not likely to add on more stimulus measures this year. Nonetheless, the downside risks may see a more cautious unwinding of its pandemic measures.”

10:00
USD/CNH: Upward momentum appears dented – UOB

FXStreet reports that UOB Group’s FX Strategists believe the upside momentum in USD/CNH could be losing traction.

Next 1-3 weeks: “We highlighted on Monday that ‘upward momentum is beginning to improve and a clear break of 6.4900 could lead to a move to 6.5200’. While USD subsequently broke 6.4900, it retreated quickly after touching 6.5075. Upward momentum has been dented somewhat but there is still chance for USD to move 6.5200. Only a break of 6.4450 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that USD is not ready to move to 6.5200 just yet.”

09:42
Italy's industrial sales fell in November

According to the report from Istat, in November 2020 the seasonally adjusted turnover index decreased by 2.0% compared to the previous month (-2.5% the domestic market and -1.0% in non-domestic market); the average of the last three months increased by +3.8% compared to the previous three months (+3.1% in domestic market and +5.1% in non-domestic market).

The seasonally adjusted industrial new orders index decreased by 1.3% compared to October (-3.8% in domestic market and +2.5% in non-domestic market); the average of the last three months increased by 5.1% compared to the previous three months (+3.8% in domestic market and +7.0% in non-domestic market).

With respect to the same month of the previous year the calendar adjusted industrial turnover index decreased by 4.6% (-4.5% in domestic market and -4.9% in non-domestic market). Calendar working days in November 2020 were 21, one more than November 2019.

The unadjusted industrial new orders index increased by 5.3% with respect to the same month of the previous year (+3.4% in domestic market and +7.9% in non-domestic market).

The seasonally adjusted volume turnover index (only for the manufacturing sector) decreased by 1.8% compared to the previous month; the average of the last three months increased by 5.3% compared to the previous three months. The calendar adjusted volume turnover index decreased by 3.3% with respect to the same month of the previous year.

09:23
Market is in a bubble with ‘very seldom seen levels of investor euphoria’ - Jeremy Grantham

CNBC reports that Famed investor Jeremy Grantham reiterated his warning that Wall Street is in a bubble as individual traders get “carried away.”

“They’re becoming euphoric … They’re borrowing money. They’re trading more shares,” Grantham, co-founder and chief investment strategist at Grantham, Mayo, & van Otterloo told CNBC.

In recent months, Grantham has warned that the massive runs on Wall Street are turning into an “epic bubble.” 

On Thursday, Grantham pointed to the number of over-the-counter shares traded since last February rocketing to 280 million shares in November and quadrupling to 1.15 trillion shares in December.

“We have very seldom seen levels of investor euphoria like this,” he said, referring to individual investor speculation, rather than institutional.

09:02
USD/JPY faces a strong support around 103.00 – UOB

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group discusses USD/JPY outlook.

Next 1-3 weeks: “Yesterday), we highlighted that USD ‘could continue to trade sideways, likely within a 103.40/104.40 range’. USD is currently approaching the bottom of the range at 103.40 and shorter-term momentum is beginning to improve. The bias is tilted to the downside but any weakness is likely limited to a test of the major support at 103.00. On the upside, a break of 104.20 would indicate the current mild downward pressure has eased.”


08:39
Does USD weakness has legs? - Citi

eFXdata reports that Citi discusses the USD outlook.

"The latest CitiFX Flows & Positioning highlights that with the move in US yields, short term USD positioning is now in long territory. The recent dollar buying has been concentrated amongst leveraged investors, with only slight inflows from real money. With overall USD positioning slightly long, and with our expectation that real yields begin to move lower again, we continue to like USD shorts. We remain bearish USD, and expect the downtrend to resume as US real yields top out. Continued Fed dovishness remains important for our view, in addition to global recovery," Citi adds.

08:19
Asian session review: the dollar declined against major currencies

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
00:00AustraliaConsumer Inflation ExpectationJanuary3.5% 3.4%
00:30AustraliaUnemployment rateDecember6.8%6.7%6.6%
00:30AustraliaChanging the number of employedDecember90.05050
03:00JapanBoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.1%-0.1%-0.1%
03:00JapanBOJ Outlook Report    


During today's Asian trading, the US dollar fell against the euro and the yen.

Traders ' attention is focused on the actions of Joe Biden, who took office as president of the United States the day before. Expectations that the Biden administration will ramp up stimulus measures are boosting optimism about the outlook for the U.S. economy, which is contributing to increased risk appetite and, consequently, a weaker dollar.

The ICE index, which tracks the dollar's performance against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona), fell 0.14%.

Investors ignore the continued high incidence of coronavirus, as well as problems with vaccination, hoping for new incentives in the United States, as well as the Biden administration's additional efforts to distribute COVID-19 vaccines.

The focus of traders ' attention on Thursday is the meeting of the European central bank( ECB), which is likely to refrain from adjusting monetary policy.

In December, the ECB extended the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) for 9 months and increased its volume by 500 billion euros, to 1.85 trillion euros, while maintaining key interest rates.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy parameters unchanged, while downgrading its GDP forecast for the current fiscal year 2020, ending in March, due to the introduction of new quarantine measures in the country.

08:01
French business confidence Index rose in January - INSEE

According to the report from the INSEE, the business climate in industry has improved in January. It has risen by 4 points and now stands at 98, catching up for the first time its early March level, just before dropping because of the national lockdown. The rise in the balance of opinion on overall order books and to a lesser extent, the one of the balance on past production, have driven the business climate upwards. However, the balance of opinion on general production prospects has slightly dipped.

The industrialists’ opinion on overall order books has noticeably improved this month, whereas the associated balance of opinion had experienced a growth at best lackluster since its partial rebound during summer and had edged down in December. Yet, it has remained well below its long-term average. This balance has increased in all main sub-sectors of the industrial sector.

The industrialist’s opinion on their production during the past three months has again improved in January 2021, after it had occasionally deteriorated last month probably under the influence of the second lockdown. The balance of opinion remains fairly significantly above its average.

In January, industrialists have raised a little their personal production prospects, confirming last month rebound. However, the balance of opinion on general production prospects in the French industrial sector has shrunk, after having rebounded strongly in December. Both of these balances are close to their long-term level.

07:39
China fails to meet U.S. trade deal target in 2020

Bloomberg reports that China failed to meet its 2020 trade deal targets with the U.S. in a year marked by pandemic-related disruptions and an increasingly tense relationship with the Trump administration.

By the end of December, China had purchased about 58.1% of the $172 billion worth of goods it pledged to buy last year under the “phase one” agreement with Washington. It bought 60.4% of targeted manufactured products and 64.4% of agricultural goods, but lagged behind on energy, importing just 39% of the target.

It’s no surprise that the annual target wasn’t met, since the monthly data had shown China was well behind on its purchase commitments all year.

Under the agreement signed in January last year, China promised to buy an additional $200 billion of U.S. goods and services over the 2017 level by the end of 2021. As the pact enters its second year, all eyes are on whether a new U.S. administration under President Joe Biden will try to renegotiate the deal.

07:22
NZD/USD has likely moved into a consolidative theme – UOB

FXStreet reports that in opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, NZD/USD is now seen navigating within the 0.7110-0.7240 range in the next weeks.

Next 1-3 weeks: “We noted on Monday that ‘downside risk has increased but only a break of 0.7080 would indicate the start of a deeper and more sustained pullback’. We added, ‘the prospect for such a move is quite high as long as NZD does not move above 0.7200 (‘strong resistance’ level) within these few days’. While 0.7200 is still intact, the strong bounce yesterday has resulted in a loss in momentum and the risk for NZD weakness has more or less dissipated. From here, NZD is likely to trade between 0.7110 and 0.7240 for a period of time.”

07:20
Options levels on thursday, January 21, 2021 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2198 (288)

$1.2172 (596)

$1.2153 (145)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2127

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2073 (1187)

$1.2049 (1110)

$1.2018 (2886)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 5 is 46956 contracts (according to data from January, 20) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2000 (2897);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3796 (1676)

$1.3764 (1563)

$1.3715 (1126)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3696

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3534 (790)

$1.3501 (259)

$1.3464 (1689)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 5 is 11515 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4000 (1723);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 5 is 19649 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (2183);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.71 versus 1.68 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 20

 

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

06:59
Bank of Japan leaves monetary policy unchanged

RTTNews reports that the Bank of Japan decided to maintain its monetary policy unchanged, at -0.1%, but raised the growth projections, citing the impetus from the fiscal stimulus measures.

The bank will continue to purchase necessary amount of Japanese government bonds without setting an upper limit so that 10-year JGB yields will remain at around zero percent.

Markets had expected the bank to keep monetary policy unchanged ahead of the policy review in March.

In its quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices report, released today, the bank said compared to October, the projected growth rates were somewhat higher, mainly for fiscal 2021, reflecting the effects of the government's economic measures in particular.

The outlook is based on the assumption that the impact of the pandemic will wane gradually and then almost subside toward the end of the projection period.

The bank lifted the fiscal 2021 GDP growth outlook to 3.9 percent from 3.6 percent. Likewise, the growth projection for the fiscal 2022 was raised to 1.8 percent from 1.6 percent.

The BoJ expects consumer prices to rise 0.5 percent in the fiscal 2021 instead of 0.4 percent forecast in October. At the same time, inflation outlook for the fiscal 2022 was retained at 0.7 percent.

03:03
Japan: BoJ Interest Rate Decision, -0.1% (forecast -0.1%)
02:30
Commodities. Daily history for Wednesday, January 20, 2021
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 55.66 -0.55
Silver 25.808 2.4
Gold 1871.156 1.67
Palladium 2368.85 0.66
00:30
Australia: Unemployment rate, December 6.6 (forecast 6.7%)
00:30
Australia: Changing the number of employed, December 50 (forecast 50)
00:30
Schedule for today, Thursday, January 21, 2021
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
00:00 (GMT) Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation January 3.5%  
00:30 (GMT) Australia Unemployment rate December 6.8% 6.7%
00:30 (GMT) Australia Changing the number of employed December 90.0 50
03:00 (GMT) Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.1% -0.1%
03:00 (GMT) Japan BOJ Outlook Report    
09:30 (GMT) United Kingdom BOE Credit Conditions Survey    
11:00 (GMT) United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance January -25 -35
12:45 (GMT) Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 0% 0%
13:30 (GMT) U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims January 5271 5400
13:30 (GMT) Canada New Housing Price Index, YoY December 4.6%  
13:30 (GMT) Canada New Housing Price Index, MoM December 0.6%  
13:30 (GMT) U.S. Initial Jobless Claims January 965 910
13:30 (GMT) U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey January 11.1 12
13:30 (GMT) U.S. Housing Starts December 1.547 1.56
13:30 (GMT) U.S. Building Permits December 1.635 1.60
13:30 (GMT) Eurozone ECB Press Conference    
15:00 (GMT) Eurozone Consumer Confidence January -13.9 -15
21:45 (GMT) New Zealand CPI, q/q Quarter IV 0.7% 0%
21:45 (GMT) New Zealand CPI, y/y Quarter IV 1.4% 1%
23:30 (GMT) Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y December -0.9% -1.1%
23:30 (GMT) Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y December -0.9%  
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Wednesday, January 20, 2021
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.77449 0.65
EURJPY 125.335 -0.5
EURUSD 1.21045 -0.16
GBPJPY 141.404 -0.12
GBPUSD 1.36567 0.24
NZDUSD 0.71693 0.74
USDCAD 1.26313 -0.76
USDCHF 0.88954 0.16
USDJPY 103.537 -0.35
00:13
Australia: Consumer Inflation Expectation, January 3.4%

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