Forex-novosti i prognoze od 18-07-2019

Major US stock indexes rose slightly, the reason for which were "dovish" statements by the representative of the Fed Williams, after which sharply increased the likelihood of reducing the Fed rate by 50 basis points at the July meeting

Williams said that in an environment where the stakes were lower than they were in the past, the Central Bank must resist any signs of weakness quickly and aggressively. Futures on federal funds imply that traders now see a 59% chance of a cut in the Fed rate by 50 basis points at the July meeting, compared with 34% on Wednesday and earlier today.

Investors also analyzed mixed corporate reports and looked forward to new statements about trade negotiations between the US and China. Netflix shares fell by almost 11% after the company reported an unexpected loss of subscribers in the United States, combined with a slower-than-expected increase in the number of subscribers abroad. Against this background, investors ignored the fact that the declared quarterly profit of $ 0.60 per share exceeded the market forecast ($ 0.55 per share).

IBM's quarterly reports (IBM, + 4.35%) showed that its revenue declined for the fourth consecutive quarter. At the same time, the profit reached $ 3.17 per share, which turned out to be higher than the average forecast of analysts at $ 3.08. IBM net profit increased due to growth in the cloud business.

In the focus of investors were also statistical data on the United States. As the report of the Ministry of Labor showed, initial applications for unemployment benefits rose by 8,000 to 216,000, taking into account seasonal fluctuations in the week ending July 13. The data for the previous week was revised to show 1,000 requests less received than previously reported. The increase in claims last week met the expectations of economists.

At the same time, the data published by the Conference Board showed that by the end of June, the leading indicators index (LEI) for the USA fell by 0.3% and amounted to 111.5 points (2016 = 100), after stabilizing in May and increasing by 0.1% in April . Experts predicted that the index will grow by 0.1%.

Most of the components of DOW recorded an increase (18 out of 30). The growth leader was IBM (IBM; + 4.45%). Outsiders were UnitedHealth Group (UNH; -2.46%).

Most sectors of the S & P finished trading in positive territory. The consumer goods sector grew the most (+ 0.7%). The largest decline was shown by the conglomerate sector (-0.3%).

At the time of closing:

Dow 27,221.58 +1.73 +0.01%

S & P 500 2,995.05 +10.63 +0.36%

Nasdaq 100 8,207.24 +22.04 +0.27%

ING's strategists note that June's jobs report released overnight showed a fairly robust increase in full-time job creation, although unemployment stayed at 5.2%. 

• "The Reserve Bank of Australia cut twice (in June and July) in an effort to lower unemployment and revamp inflation, and markets are pricing in a 18 basis point cut by year-end. Given unclear indications from the jobs market we suspect that the RBA may extend its current wait-and-see attitude for the next few months. This should leave AUD mainly driven by external factors, with the fear of rising trade tensions possibly triggering a downside correction in AUD/USD, which may test the 0.7018 100-day moving average support."

Analysts at Rabobank, notes that, in recent weeks, the ECB has signaled the potential of renewed easing and they believe rate cuts are likely to be the preferred instrument.

• “Further rate cuts will probably be accompanied by some form of a tiered deposit rate scheme to ensure that these cuts have the desired effect on the real economy.
• We believe a substantial amount of excess reserves needs to be exempted from the ECB’s negative deposit rate in order to fully mitigate the additional costs of rate cuts on the banking sector.
• Nonetheless, looking at evidence from Japan, we don’t see any reason to assume that such a large decline in reserves subject to the negative policy rate would cause the pass-through of rates to break down.
• However, the ECB will have to look carefully at the exact design of any tiered system, both in conjunction with their other policy tools and in terms of distributional effects on the various types of banks in the Eurozone.”

• We don't have much inflation today
• Competitive devaluation is probably not a good idea

U.S. stock-index futures fell slightly on Thursday, as investors were concerned about Q2 earnings reports of Netflix (NFLX) and IBM (IBM).

Global Stocks:

The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey, released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on Thursday, revealed the expansion in the region's manufacturing activity rebounded strongly in July.

According to the survey, the diffusion index for current general activity surged from 0.3 in June to 21.8 this month.

Economists had forecast the index to increase to 5.0 last month.

A reading above 0 signals expansion, while a reading below 0 indicates contraction.

The July climb in the headline index was due to increases in the indexes for new orders (from 8.3 in June to 18.9), shipments (from 16.6 to 24.9) and employment (from 15.4 to 30). On the price front, the prices paid and prices received indexes both rose this month but remained well below their readings over the past few years. 

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Exxon Mobil (XOM) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; target lowered to $90

Advanced Micro (AMD) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho; target raised to $37

Apple (AAPL) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James; target $250

The data from the Labor Department revealed on Thursday the number of applications for unemployment benefits rose moderately last week, pointing to strong labor market conditions.

According to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits increased 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 216,000 for the week ended July 13.

Economists had expected 216,000 new claims last week.

Claims for the prior week were revised downwardly to 208,000 from the initial estimate of 209,000.

Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of claims decreased by 250 to 218,750 last week.

Bill Diviney, the senior economist at ABN AMRO, thinks that, while the doctrine of "data dependence" would indeed suggest a lower likelihood of rate cuts, this misinterprets the Fed’s reaction function and the reason for the shift to rate cuts.

• “First, changes in monetary policy work their way through the economy with significant lags – a rule of thumb is 5-6 quarters on average, according to academic literature. As such, while recent data outturns are important, they are only one input into a range of factors that affect the central bank’s outlook for the economy – and it is the outlook that determines policy decisions.
• Second, and linked to this, the primary driver of rate cuts is the significant degree of uncertainty – linked to the trade war escalation – not the growth slowdown we saw earlier this year, in our view. An additional enabling factor for rate cuts is the persistent undershoot of inflation, and the risk of inflation expectations de-anchoring.
• Finally, the June FOMC projections showed a significant decline in the median neutral rate estimate, from 2.8% to 2.5%. This suggests that at least part of the desire to cut rates reflects a view that the Fed may have overtightened with the last rate hike in December.
• While the Fed will welcome the somewhat stronger tone to the data, therefore, it does not substantially change the balance of risks to the outlook – and as such, should keep the Fed comfortably on its rate-cutting path. We continue to expect a 25bp cut at the 30-31 July FOMC, followed by two further 25bp cuts by Q1 2020.”

Morgan Stanley (MS) reported Q2 FY 2019 earnings of $1.23 per share (versus $1.30 in Q2 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus of $1.16.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $10.244 bln (-3.4% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $10.021 bln.

MS fell to $43.70 (-0.16%) in pre-market trading.

• Adds if the call goes well, he will expect in-person meetings to take place
• Says Huawei is not sticking point in U.S.-China trade talks, but “there are just a lot of complicated issues”

Honeywell (HON) reported Q2 FY 2019 earnings of $2.10 per share (versus $2.12 in Q2 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $2.08.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $9.243 bln (-15.3% y/y), missing analysts’ consensus estimate of $9.373 bln.

The company also issued raised FY 2019 EPS guidance of $7.95-8.15 versus prior guidance of $7.90-8.10 and analysts’ consensus estimate of $8.10.

HON fell to $167.13 (-0.88%) in pre-market trading.

UnitedHealth (UNH) reported Q2 FY 2019 earnings of $3.60 per share (versus $3.14 in Q2 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus of $3.46.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $60.595 bln (+8.0% y/y), generally in line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $60.587 bln.

The company raised FY19 EPS guidance to $14.70-14.90 from prior $14.50-14.75 versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $14.71.

UNH rose to $268.68 (+0.76%) in pre-market trading.

• Says will continue with powerful monetary easing persistently

eBay (EBAY) reported Q2 FY 2019 earnings of $0.68 per share (versus $0.53 in Q2 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus of $0.62.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $2.687 bln (+1.8% y/y), generally in line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $2.673 bln.

The company also raised FY 2019 EPS guidance to $2.70-2.75 from prior guidance of $2.64-2.70 (versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $2.70) but lowered FY 2019 revenues guidance to $10.75-10.83 bln from $10.83-10.93 bln (versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $10.92 bln).

EBAY rose to $41.14 (+5.41%) in pre-market trading.

Analysts at TD Securities note that the markets are expecting the Philly Fed manufacturing report for July to show a modest rebound to 5.0 following the sharp 16 point decline to 0.3 in June.

• “The improvement is likely to reflect some easing on trade worries that affected manufacturing sentiment in June (US-Mexico standoff and fallout in US-China talks pre-G20) and would also be in line with the NY Empire report published earlier in the week.
• NY Fed President Williams will give a keynote address on monetary policy at 2:15 pm ET. We look for his remarks to further solidify the case for a 25bp cut at the July FOMC meeting — in line with our view. Recall that Williams recently acknowledged that arguments for monetary policy easing have strengthened.”

Alcoa (AA) reported Q2 FY 2019 loss of $0.01. per share (versus earnings of $1.52 in Q2 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus of -$0.02.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $2.711 bln (-24.3% y/y), missing analysts’ consensus estimate of $2.772 bln.

AA closed Wednesday's trading session at $23.1587 (-0.73%).

ECB staff is informally analyzing the institution's policy approach, including the question of whether the current target of consumer price growth "below, but close to, 2%" is still appropriate, the report said.

Netflix (NFLX) reported Q2 FY 2019 earnings of $0.60 per share (versus $0.85 in Q2 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus of $0.55.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $4.923 bln (+26.0% y/y), generally in line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $4.935 bln.

The company also issued in-line guidance for Q3 FY 2019, projecting EPS of $1.04 versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.04 and revenues of $5.25 bln versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $5.24 bln.

NFLX fell to $323.16 (-10.84%) in pre-market trading.

Robert Rennie, the head of FM strategy at Westpac, notes that, while today’s 21.1k rise in Australia’s full-time employment (2.9%yy) was better than expected, the 20.6k drop in par- time and 5.24% unemployment rate suggested a softer underlying tone in line with partial data suggesting that jobs momentum has slowed.

• “It reinforces Westpac’s view that the RBA has further to go in terms of rate cuts if it has any chance of hitting the 4.5% NAIRU target any time soon.
• However, with a third cut fully factored by Feb next year and 35% of a fourth cut to 0.50% after that, it's hard to see too much downside risk to the A$ from interest rate differentials alone. And with iron ore holding above $120 helping drive record trade surplus, the A$ should remain well supported for now.
• Thus we again hold a neutral bias for the week ahead, though we still expect to see the A$ lower on a 1- and 3-month basis and see near term price action as capped by 0.7050.”

IBM (IBM) reported Q2 FY 2019 earnings of $3.17 per share (versus $3.08 in Q2 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $3.08.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $19.200 bln (-4.0% y/y), generally in line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $19.201 bln.

The company also reaffirmed FY 2019 EPS guidance of “at least $13.90” versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $13.90.

IBM fell to $141.55 (-1.06%) in pre-market trading.

In view of analysts at ING, GBP has staged a timid rebound after dramatically falling on Tuesday.

“Brexit fears were partly mitigated by a move by British MPs aimed at averting a Parliament suspension, which may allow the future PM (in all probability Boris Johnson) to force a no-deal solution. Today, a scheduled debate in the House of Commons on the matter may provide more clarity. Add to this a possible rebound in June retail sales, and GBP may stay supported on the day. Nonetheless, we expect the 0.90 level in EUR/GBP to be a solid support for the pair. Looking ahead, we remain highly sceptical that any GBP rally will prove sustainable and expect pressure on GBP to keep mounting.”

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, USD/JPY has eroded the 107.81 5th June low and is back under pressure.

“While the market is capped by 108.99 we will maintain a negative bias. The 107.81 5th June low should act as a near term break point to the 106.78 recent low. Our short term target is 105.87, the 78.6% retracement of the move seen this year. Minor resistance lies at the 109.02 mid-May low and also at the 110.84 April 10 low and the 110.75 200 day moving average. These guard the 2015-2019 downtrend at 111.94. We look for the market to remain capped by its 112.01 2015-2019 downtrend. Only above here would target the 114.55 October 2018 high.”

British Finance Minister Philip Hammond said that he feared the consequences on the economy and the public finances of a worst case no deal departure from the European Union as analysed in a fiscal risk report out on Thursday.

Hammond said that the report from Britain's Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) showed that even in the most benign version of a no deal EU exit there would be "a very significant hit to the UK economy".

Hammond said that the OBR was clear that in a less benign version of a no deal scenario, the hit to the economy would be much harder, causing a much deeper recession.

"So I greatly fear the impact on our economy and our public finances of the kind of no deal Brexit that is realistically being discussed now," Hammond told

European banks are finally showing signs of recovery and investors should be looking to reduce their bearish positioning in the beleaguered sector, according to Barclays strategists.

In a note Barclays strategists projected that the stabilization of eurozone economic data and bond yields may bolster the banks, which have the most positive correlation to these two metrics of all European sectors.

“Eurozone composite PMI (purchasing managers’ index) is stabilizing and the key domestic drivers of activity are well oriented,” the note stated.

It added that in the meantime, bond yields and inflation expectations are “trying to find a floor,” which gives a breather to value stocks, those which trade at a lower price relative to their fundamentals.

On top of this, the Italian government is “showing some fiscal discipline” and the European Central Bank (ECB) has opened the door to new quantitative easing while “seeking to mitigate the drag from negative rates on banks.”

According to the report from Office for National Statistics, in the three months to June 2019, the amount spent and the quantity bought both increased by 0.7% respectively when compared with the previous three months, with growth across all sectors except food stores and department stores. This has slowed from the stronger growth of 1.5% in the amount spent and 1.6% in the quantity bought in the three months to May 2019.

The quantity bought in June 2019 increased by 1.0% when compared with May 2019; non-food stores provided the largest contribution to this growth. Economists had expected a 0.3% decrease. The monthly picture also showed strong growth of 1.3% for the amount spent.

The year-on-year growth rate shows that the quantity bought in June 2019 increased by 3.8%, with growth across all sectors except department stores, while May 2019 was at 2.2% for the year-on-year growth rate. Economists had expected a 2.6% increase in June.

Online sales as a proportion of all retailing fell to 18.9% in June 2019, from the 19.3% reported in May 2019.

A key gauge of China's debt has topped 300% of gross domestic product, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), as Beijing steps up support for the cooling economy while trying to contain financial risks.

China's total corporate, household and government debt rose to 303% of GDP in the first quarter of 2019, from 297% in the same period a year earlier, the IIF said in a report, which highlighted rising debt levels worldwide.

"While authorities' efforts to curb shadow bank lending (particularly to smaller companies) have prompted a cutback in non-financial corporate debt, net borrowing in other sectors has brought China's total debt to over $40 trillion - some 15% of all global debt," the report said.

"Of note, onshore bond issuance suggests a big pickup in borrowing by local governments and banks this year."

China has other “weapons” in its trade battle with the United States — and selling off its U.S. Treasury holdings will not be one of them, said Richard McGregor, senior fellow at think tank Lowy Institute.

As trade tensions between the two countries escalated in March, Beijing cut down its U.S. debt holdings at the fastest pace in about two years.

The move fueled concerns that China, the largest foreign owner of U.S. Treasurys, could employ the so-called “nuclear option” — the ability to sell off its Treasury bonds and trigger a surge in interest rates that would damage the American economy.

“Weaponizing” U.S. Treasury holdings has always been a “non-starter” for Beijing, said McGregor. “The Chinese current account deficit is now under 1% of GDP,” he explained. “If China were to do anything to the U.S. dollar, that would obviously hurt Chinese holdings of the U.S. dollar. And I also don’t think they want to see the disruptive effect that will have.”

McGregor said China has other options in the trade battle. “China can manage its economy, manage its entry to its economy,” he said. Beijing can manage foreign access to the Chinese economy, and decide whether to boost the presence of foreign firms or deny them further access.

The EU's chief Brexit negotiator said in an interview to be published on Thursday that he was unimpressed by threats of no-deal Brexit but that if the United Kingdom opted for such a course it would have to face the consequences.

Asked by the BBC what would happen if London tore up its EU membership card, Michel Barnier said: “The UK will have to face the consequences.”

“I think that the UK side, which is well informed and competent and knows the way we work on the EU side, knew from the very beginning that we’ve never been impressed by such a threat," Barnier said. "It’s not useful to use it”.

Barnier said the Withdrawal Agreement “is the only way to leave the EU in an orderly manner”.

Deutsche Bank Wealth Management’s global chief investment officer Christian Nolting predicted the Fed will cut interest rates twice in the next 12 months, but chances of a four-time rate cut are less.

Chicago Fed President Evans had said this week that even two rate cuts might not be enough in the longer run, given consistently low inflation and global trade tensions.

“The market pricing in four cuts, I think that’s a bit too much ... they (Fed) shouldn’t use all their firepower immediately,” Nolting told.

Nolting predicted a 25 basis points cut by the end of July — what he termed an “insurance cut, or pre-emptive cut,” in the face of weaker economic growth.

But Nolting proposed that the key to curbing an economic slowdown is whether the Fed, which has a 2% inflation target, is able to increase consumer prices. The Fed tracks the core personal consumption expenditures price index for monetary policy. That index increased 1.5 percent year-on-year in May and has undershot its target this year.

Italy still has time to dissolve parliament and go to elections after the summer break, Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini told daily Il Corriere della Sera.

Salvini, who’s also the leader of League party, said that it was up to ruling coalition partner 5-Star Movement to decide if Rome’s populist government would survive, based on their cooperation on a plan to increase regional autonomy, next year’s budget and a reform of judicial system.

Italy’s coalition parties clashed on Wednesday over the election of Germany’s Ursula von der Leyen as the next president of the European Commission, in a vote that could endanger Rome’s hopes of securing a top job in the new EU executive.

Danske Bank analysts suggest that the data calendar brings no tier 1 releases in today's session and the primary market focus will remain on the unfolding earnings season amid US President Trump's recent reminder that the truce in the US-China trade war may quickly be called off.

“On paper, the most prominent events today are Fed's Williams and Bostic speaking this evening and afternoon, respectively. However, given the recent communication from FOMC board members including Fed Chair Powell we doubt these speeches will have much market impact. In the US, we get the weekly jobless claims figures that as always will receive attention given the importance of the labour market to the Fed. After a rebound in April, initial jobless claims have since been fluctuating around 220,000. After last week's drop to 209,000, we expect a modest rebound to a level just below these 220,000. If right, this would suggest that the labour market - albeit a lagging indicator - remains healthy.”

China expects cross-border capital flows to remain basically stable in the second half of the year, in spite of uncertainties in the global economy and trade protectionism, its foreign exchange regulator said.

Positive factors outnumber the negative, as the international monetary policy environment is relatively loose and the U.S. trade deficit with China is increasing, Wang Chunying, a spokeswoman at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), said.

China is expected to post a surplus in its current account in the second quarter of this year and a small surplus for all of 2019, she said.

Wang also said China's foreign debt risks are controllable overall. Last week, the country's state planner said it is tightening restrictions on property companies seeking to raise funds offshore, in its latest move to reduce potential financial risks.

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that EUR/USD pair is again showing signs of recovery just above the March and mid-June lows at 1.1181/76 and while these hold the downside, an upside bias will prevail.

“We should then see a recovery towards the 200 day moving average and early June high at 1.1319/48. This guards the more important 1.1394/1.1412 55 week ma and recent high. Above the 1.1412 June high we look for resumption of the up move and a test of the 1.1570 2019 high. Slightly longer term we target 1.1815/54, the highs from June and September 2018. We regard the April and May lows at 1.1110/06 as a turning point and continue to view the market as based longer term and target 1.1990 (measurement higher from the wedge).”

According to the report from Federal Statistical Office, the Swiss trade surplus widened sharply to CHF 3.3 billion in June 2019 from a downwardly revised CHF 1.5 billion in the previous month. This was the largest trade surplus since January 2017, as exports rose 8.5 percent to CHF 20.4 billion while imports fell 0.8 percent to CHF 17.1 billion. Considering the first half of the year, the trade surplus widened to CHF 12.9 billion from CHF 8.7 billion in the same period of 2018.

In the second quarter of 2019, seasonally adjusted exports grew by 1.4 percent (in real terms: - 1.0 percent) and at the same time reached a new quarterly high of CHF 58.2 billion. As a result, exports have been on an upward trend since the first quarter of 2017. Imports remained virtually unchanged compared to the previous quarter (+ 0.2 percent, real: + 0.8 percent), which have been showing a sideways movement since the first quarter of 2018. After all, at 51.5 billion Swiss francs, the new import record was also high. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 6.8 billion francs.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1346 (1149)

$1.1321 (758)

$1.1291 (237)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1236

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1206 (3394)

$1.1174 (2880)

$1.1136 (3378)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date August, 9 is 63299 contracts (according to data from July, 17) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3739);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2669 (1742)

$1.2595 (860)

$1.2540 (398)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2436

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2383 (2442)

$1.2352 (2028)

$1.2317 (761)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 9 is 16468 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (2053);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 9 is 16686 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2450 (2442);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.01 versus 1.03 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 17

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.