Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:30 | Australia | Wage Price Index, q/q | Quarter IV | 0.5% | 0.5% |
00:30 | Australia | Wage Price Index, y/y | Quarter IV | 2.2% | 2.2% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Current account, unadjusted, bln | December | 36.6 | 42.4 |
09:30 | United Kingdom | Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) | January | 0.1% | -0.4% |
09:30 | United Kingdom | Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) | January | -0.1% | -0.1% |
09:30 | United Kingdom | Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) | January | 0.9% | 1% |
09:30 | United Kingdom | Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) | January | 0% | 0.1% |
09:30 | United Kingdom | Retail Price Index, m/m | January | 0.3% | -0.6% |
09:30 | United Kingdom | HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y | January | 1.4% | |
09:30 | United Kingdom | Retail prices, Y/Y | January | 2.2% | 2.6% |
09:30 | United Kingdom | HICP, m/m | January | 0% | -0.4% |
09:30 | United Kingdom | HICP, Y/Y | January | 1.3% | 1.6% |
10:00 | Eurozone | Construction Output, y/y | December | 1.4% | 1.4% |
13:10 | U.S. | FOMC Member Bostic Speaks | |||
13:30 | U.S. | FOMC Member Bostic Speaks | |||
13:30 | U.S. | FOMC Member Mester Speaks | |||
13:30 | U.S. | Building Permits | January | 1.420 | 1.450 |
13:30 | U.S. | Housing Starts | January | 1.608 | 1.425 |
13:30 | U.S. | PPI excluding food and energy, m/m | January | 0.1% | 0.2% |
13:30 | U.S. | PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y | January | 1.1% | 1.3% |
13:30 | U.S. | PPI, y/y | January | 1.3% | 1.6% |
13:30 | U.S. | PPI, m/m | January | 0.2% | 0.1% |
13:30 | Canada | Consumer Price Index m / m | January | 0% | 0.2% |
13:30 | Canada | Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y | January | 1.7% | 1.8% |
13:30 | Canada | Consumer price index, y/y | January | 2.2% | 2.3% |
16:45 | U.S. | FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks | |||
18:30 | U.S. | FOMC Member Kaplan Speak | |||
19:00 | U.S. | FOMC meeting minutes | |||
21:30 | U.S. | Fed Barkin Speech | |||
21:45 | New Zealand | PPI Input (QoQ) | Quarter IV | 0.9% | 0.4% |
21:45 | New Zealand | PPI Output (QoQ) | Quarter IV | 1% | 0.3% |
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:30 | Australia | Wage Price Index, q/q | Quarter IV | 0.5% | 0.5% |
00:30 | Australia | Wage Price Index, y/y | Quarter IV | 2.2% | 2.2% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Current account, unadjusted, bln | December | 36.6 | 42.4 |
09:30 | United Kingdom | Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) | January | 0.1% | -0.4% |
09:30 | United Kingdom | Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) | January | -0.1% | -0.1% |
09:30 | United Kingdom | Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) | January | 0.9% | 1% |
09:30 | United Kingdom | Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) | January | 0% | 0.1% |
09:30 | United Kingdom | Retail Price Index, m/m | January | 0.3% | -0.6% |
09:30 | United Kingdom | HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y | January | 1.4% | |
09:30 | United Kingdom | Retail prices, Y/Y | January | 2.2% | 2.6% |
09:30 | United Kingdom | HICP, m/m | January | 0% | -0.4% |
09:30 | United Kingdom | HICP, Y/Y | January | 1.3% | 1.6% |
10:00 | Eurozone | Construction Output, y/y | December | 1.4% | 1.4% |
13:10 | U.S. | FOMC Member Bostic Speaks | |||
13:30 | U.S. | FOMC Member Bostic Speaks | |||
13:30 | U.S. | FOMC Member Mester Speaks | |||
13:30 | U.S. | Building Permits | January | 1.420 | 1.450 |
13:30 | U.S. | Housing Starts | January | 1.608 | 1.425 |
13:30 | U.S. | PPI excluding food and energy, m/m | January | 0.1% | 0.2% |
13:30 | U.S. | PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y | January | 1.1% | 1.3% |
13:30 | U.S. | PPI, y/y | January | 1.3% | 1.6% |
13:30 | U.S. | PPI, m/m | January | 0.2% | 0.1% |
13:30 | Canada | Consumer Price Index m / m | January | 0% | 0.2% |
13:30 | Canada | Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y | January | 1.7% | 1.8% |
13:30 | Canada | Consumer price index, y/y | January | 2.2% | 2.3% |
16:45 | U.S. | FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks | |||
18:30 | U.S. | FOMC Member Kaplan Speak | |||
19:00 | U.S. | FOMC meeting minutes | |||
21:30 | U.S. | Fed Barkin Speech | |||
21:45 | New Zealand | PPI Input (QoQ) | Quarter IV | 0.9% | 0.4% |
21:45 | New Zealand | PPI Output (QoQ) | Quarter IV | 1% | 0.3% |
Says he sees no change in Fed funds rate though this year
He hopes Fed balance sheet will expand only gradually once reserves meet ample levels of $1.5 trillion
Expects pace of balance sheet expansion to moderate significantly over first half of 2020
Supports review of treatment of Treasury bills in bank liquidity management
He is open to other options for limiting growth of Fed balance sheet
Sees slower U.S. oil output and 10-15% drop in oil sector capex in 2020
The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) announced on Tuesday its housing market index (HMI) edged down one point to 74 in February from an unrevised January reading of 75. The last three monthly readings mark the highest sentiment levels since December 2017.
Economists had forecast the HMI to stay at 75.
A reading over 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor.
All three HMI components registered a one-point decline this month. The indicator gauging current sales conditions decreased to 80 from 81 in January, while the component measuring traffic of prospective buyers fell to 57 from 58 and the measure charting sales expectations dropped to 79 from 80.
NAHB Chairman Dean Mon noted: "Steady job growth, rising wages and low interest rates are fueling demand but builders are still grappling with increasing construction and development costs".
Meanwhile, NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said: "At a time when demand is on the rise, regulatory constraints along with a shortage of construction workers and a dearth of lots are hindering the production of affordable housing in local communities across the nation. And while lower mortgage rates have improved housing affordability in recent months, accelerating price growth due to limited inventory may offset some of that effect."
FXStreet reports that Mark McCormick, Global Head of FX Strategy at TD Securities, offered his take about the effect of the coronavirus outbreak on the FX market.
“The major themes combine the feedback loop between the impact of the coronavirus and the state of the global economy. The US election is another one, but for now, the major driver rests on the magnitude of the outbreak and when things will start to stabilize. The guidance from Apple has spooked risk markets again overnight.”
“A stronger USD is the path of the least resistance in the very short-run. We likely get more stress in the short-run, and we note that besides Europe, the discounts across currencies aren't significant enough yet to call a bottom.”
U.S. stock-index futures fell on Tuesday, as sales warning from Apple Inc. (AAPL) dented market sentiment, as investors continue to assess the potential economic fallout of the coronavirus outbreak in China.
Global Stocks:
Index/commodity | Last | Today's Change, points | Today's Change, % |
Nikkei | 23,193.80 | -329.44 | -1.40% |
Hang Seng | 27,530.20 | -429.40 | -1.54% |
Shanghai | 2,984.97 | +1.35 | +0.05% |
S&P/ASX | 7,113.70 | -11.40 | -0.16% |
FTSE | 7,373.59 | -59.66 | -0.80% |
CAC | 6,061.47 | -24.48 | -0.40% |
DAX | 13,685.73 | -98.16 | -0.71% |
Crude oil | $51.01 | | -2.00% |
Gold | $1,594.60 | | +0.52% |
FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group noted USD/JPY is still seen within a consolidative theme in the near-term.
24-hour view: “USD came close to the top of our expected 109.60/110.00 range before easing off (high of 109.96). The price action offers no fresh clues and we continue to expect USD to trade sideways between 109.60 and 110.00 for now.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “USD traded in a quiet manner last Friday before closing not much changed at 109.74 (-0.06%). The price action offers no fresh clues and we continue to hold the same view from last Tuesday (11 Feb, spot at 109.75) wherein USD is expected to “trade sideways”. Looking forward, the top of the expected 109.30/110.30 range appears to be more vulnerable but the lackluster price actions over the past few days suggest the expected range could remain intact for a while more.”
(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)
3M Co | MMM | 160.16 | -0.85(-0.53%) | 1853 |
ALCOA INC. | AA | 15.56 | -0.11(-0.70%) | 12583 |
ALTRIA GROUP INC. | MO | 45 | -0.17(-0.38%) | 902 |
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ | AMZN | 2,128.00 | -6.87(-0.32%) | 33016 |
American Express Co | AXP | 135 | -0.87(-0.64%) | 128 |
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP | AIG | 48.4 | -0.08(-0.17%) | 3570 |
Apple Inc. | AAPL | 317.8 | -7.15(-2.20%) | 1454988 |
AT&T Inc | T | 38.12 | -0.13(-0.34%) | 15831 |
Boeing Co | BA | 338.66 | -1.83(-0.54%) | 13492 |
Caterpillar Inc | CAT | 137.04 | -0.95(-0.69%) | 2284 |
Chevron Corp | CVX | 109.42 | -0.66(-0.60%) | 1679 |
Cisco Systems Inc | CSCO | 46.74 | -0.23(-0.49%) | 42931 |
Citigroup Inc., NYSE | C | 78.27 | -0.52(-0.66%) | 4257 |
E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co | DD | 53.37 | 0.27(0.51%) | 35939 |
Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM | 60.3 | -0.35(-0.58%) | 20639 |
Facebook, Inc. | FB | 213.49 | -0.69(-0.32%) | 53544 |
FedEx Corporation, NYSE | FDX | 157.75 | -0.87(-0.55%) | 3481 |
Ford Motor Co. | F | 8.09 | -0.01(-0.12%) | 173718 |
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE | FCX | 12.05 | -0.19(-1.55%) | 20601 |
General Electric Co | GE | 12.6 | -0.23(-1.79%) | 348254 |
General Motors Company, NYSE | GM | 34.43 | -0.33(-0.95%) | 18439 |
Goldman Sachs | GS | 236 | -1.08(-0.46%) | 1462 |
Google Inc. | GOOG | 1,517.60 | -3.14(-0.21%) | 4562 |
Hewlett-Packard Co. | HPQ | 22.15 | -0.22(-0.98%) | 5879 |
Home Depot Inc | HD | 245 | -0.03(-0.01%) | 4340 |
Intel Corp | INTC | 66.63 | -0.64(-0.95%) | 52314 |
International Business Machines Co... | IBM | 149.38 | -1.32(-0.88%) | 14902 |
Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | 150.41 | 0.28(0.19%) | 547 |
JPMorgan Chase and Co | JPM | 137.03 | -0.43(-0.31%) | 5495 |
McDonald's Corp | MCD | 216.5 | -0.59(-0.27%) | 1381 |
Merck & Co Inc | MRK | 82.45 | -0.20(-0.24%) | 3029 |
Microsoft Corp | MSFT | 185.02 | -0.33(-0.18%) | 236907 |
Nike | NKE | 103 | -0.54(-0.52%) | 4023 |
Pfizer Inc | PFE | 36.47 | -0.04(-0.11%) | 9658 |
Procter & Gamble Co | PG | 125.6 | -0.54(-0.43%) | 2110 |
Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ | SBUX | 88.95 | -0.33(-0.37%) | 5567 |
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ | TSLA | 843.73 | 43.70(5.46%) | 1211659 |
The Coca-Cola Co | KO | 59.87 | -0.08(-0.13%) | 8524 |
Twitter, Inc., NYSE | TWTR | 36.71 | -0.20(-0.54%) | 28011 |
UnitedHealth Group Inc | UNH | 298.38 | -0.40(-0.13%) | 577 |
Verizon Communications Inc | VZ | 58.5 | -0.01(-0.02%) | 4386 |
Visa | V | 210.19 | -0.10(-0.05%) | 14860 |
Wal-Mart Stores Inc | WMT | 119 | 1.11(0.94%) | 438012 |
Walt Disney Co | DIS | 139.03 | -0.51(-0.37%) | 35579 |
Yandex N.V., NASDAQ | YNDX | 46.04 | -0.53(-1.14%) | 9765 |
Statistics Canada released its Monthly Survey of Manufacturing on Tuesday, which showed that the Canadian manufacturing sales fell 0.7 percent m-o-m in December to CAD56.41 billion, following a revised 1.0 percent m-o-m decline in November (originally a 0.6 percent m-o-m drop).
Economists had forecast a 0.5 percent m-o-m increase for December.
According to the survey, sales decreased in 11 of 21 industries, representing 42.6 percent of total manufacturing sales. lower sales in the motor vehicle assembly (-6.8 percent m-o-m) and aerospace product and parts (-15.7 percent m-o-m), the plastic and rubber products (-5.6 percent m-o-m), motor vehicle parts (-3.7 percent m-o-m), fabricated metal product (-2.4 percent m-o-m) and printing and related support activities (-6.8 percent m-o-m) industries were partly offset by higher sales in the primary metal industry (+8.7 percent m-o-m).
Overall, sales of durable goods industries declined 1.3 percent m-o-m in December, while sales of non-durable goods industries were flat m-o-m.
Yandex N.V. (YNDX) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
The report from the New York Federal Reserve showed on Tuesday that manufacturing activity in the New York region grew in February at a faster pace than in recent months.
According to the survey, NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index came in at 12.9 this month compared to an unrevised 4.8 in January, pointing to a pick-up in business activity in New York State. That was the highest reading since May 2019.
Economists had expected the index to come in at 5.0
Anything below zero signals contraction.
According to the report, the new orders index climbed 15.5 points to 22.1 (highest level in well over a year), indicating that orders rose significantly, while the shipments index surged 10.3 points to 18.9, pointing to an increase in shipments at a faster pace than in January. Meanwhile, the index for the number of employees fell 2.4 points to 6.6, indicating that employment grew to a small degree.
Elsewhere, delivery times lengthened (+11 points to 8.3 in February), and inventories jumped (+13.6 points to 12.9). On the price front, input price increases slowed somewhat (-6.5 points to 25.0), and selling price increases accelerated slightly (+2.3 points to16.7).
FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group note NZD/USD remains side-lined for the time being and it is likely to navigate within the 0.6375-0.6485 range.
24-hour view: “NZD traded sideways between 0.6421 and 0.6455, relatively close to our expected range of 0.6425/0.6460. The price action is still viewed as part of a consolidation phase and NZD is likely to continue to trade sideways. Expected range for today, 0.6420/0.6460.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “After surging to a high of 0.6487, NZD has not been able to make much headway on the upside. We highlighted last Wednesday (12 Feb, spot at 0.6445) that while Tuesday’s low of 0.6378 is deemed as a short-term bottom, any NZD strength is viewed as ‘a correction and is unlikely to break the solid 0.6525 resistance’. The relatively quiet price actions over the past few days suggest that instead of staging a stronger rebound, NZD has likely lapsed into a consolidation phase. To put it another way, NZD is likely to trade sideways between the major level of 0.6375 and 0.6485 for now.”
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09:30 | United Kingdom | Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y | December | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% |
09:30 | United Kingdom | Average Earnings, 3m/y | December | 3.2% | 3% | 2.9% |
09:30 | United Kingdom | ILO Unemployment Rate | December | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
09:30 | United Kingdom | Claimant count | January | 2.6 | 22.6 | 5.5 |
10:00 | Eurozone | ZEW Economic Sentiment | February | 25.6 | 30 | 10.4 |
10:00 | Germany | ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment | February | 26.7 | 21.5 | 8.7 |
EUR fell against most major currencies in the European session on Tuesday, following the release of the German investor survey.
The ZEW's survey revealed the indicator of economic sentiment for Germany tumbled 18 points to 8.7 in February. That was the lowest level since November and well below economists' forecast of 21.5. The feared negative effects of the coronavirus outbreak on world trade caused a significant deterioration in sentiment. Expectations regarding the export-intensive sectors' development also fell sharply. In addition, the assessment of the economic situation weakened, with the corresponding indicator dropping 6.2 points to -15.7.
A separate report from the ZEW showed the investor confidence index for Eurozone also dropped noticeably (by 15.2 points) to 10.4 in February. Economists had forecast a reading of 30.
Weak data has raised concerns Eurozone's monetary policy will have to stay looser for longer. In addition, Reuters reported that a joint document adopted on Tuesday by the EU finance ministers, including Germany’s finance minister Olaf Scholz, said that the Eurozone should be ready for a fiscal boost if a downturn hits its economy.
“If downside risks were to materialise, fiscal responses should be differentiated, aiming for a more supportive stance at the aggregate level, while ensuring full respect of the Stability and Growth Pact,” the statement said.
Elsewhere, GBP rose against its major rivals, helped by the UK finance minister's promise to present the budget as planned next month and the positive UK's labour market data.
“Cracking on with preparations for my first budget on March 11,” the UK's newly-appointed chancellor Rishi Sunak wrote on Twitter. “It will deliver on the promises we made to the British people – levelling up and unleashing the country's potential.” An unexpected resignation of the former chancellor Sajid Javid last week raised speculations that the budget could be pushed back.
The report from Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed the number of people in employment in the UK increased by 180,000 in the three months to December 2019, below 208,000 recorded in the three months to November, but above market expectations of 145,000. The unemployment rate stood at 3.8 percent in the three months to December, the lowest level since early 1975 and in line with market expectations. The claimant count, meanwhile, grew 5,500 in January 2020, following a downwardly revised 2,600 gain the previous month and below market expectations of a 22,600 gain.
FXStreet reports that analysts at TD Securities (TDS) offered a brief preview of Tuesday's second-tier US and Canadian macro data, scheduled to be released during the early North-American session.
“The coming week will bring early indications of the macro impact of the viral outbreak. This will be welcome as the market has been operating within an information/data vacuum for some time.”
“The February round of manufacturing surveys will start with the New York Fed's Empire State data. A key focus will be whether the data show any sign of fallout from the coronavirus. We don't expect any major impact yet, but we forecast a modest decline in the headline index, to 4.0 from 4.8. More positively, we expect the housing market index to be up. Homebuilders' equities prices have been surging.”
“We expect manufacturing sales to decline by 0.1% in December (market: 0.7%) owing to a combination of weaker auto production and lower factory prices. While exports were up 1.9% m/m during the month, the increase was led by raw materials (crude oil, minerals) and exports of manufactured goods were actually lower on the month. Manufacturing volumes should post a mild increase, although we do not expect much of a contribution to industry-level GDP growth.”
EUR/USD: Negative phase stays well on the cards – UOB
FXStreet reports that according to FX Strategists at UOB Group, the bearish note in EUR/USD remains unaltered for the time being.
24-hour view: “EUR traded between 1.0820 and 1.0850 yesterday, narrower than our expected sideway-trading range of 1.0820/1.0860. The price action is viewed as an on-going consolidation phase and further sideway-trading would not be surprising. Expected range for today, 1.0820/1.0860.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “EUR eked out a fresh ‘lower low’ of 1.0826 last Friday before closing at 1.0830 (-0.09%). While the weak phase that started more than a week is still intact, the combination of waning momentum and oversold conditions suggest that a bottom may not be far away. As highlighted early last Friday (14 Feb, spot at 1.0840), while a dip below 1.0810 (we first indicated this level last Monday) would not be surprising, the next support at 1.0770 could be out of reach. On the upside, a move above 1.0890 (‘strong resistance’ was at 1.0910 last Friday) would indicate the current weakness in EUR has run its course.”
Reuters reports that a joint document adopted on Tuesday by the EU finance ministers, including Germany’s finance minister Olaf Scholz, said that the Eurozone should be ready for a fiscal boost if a downturn hits its economy.
“If downside risks were to materialise, fiscal responses should be differentiated, aiming for a more supportive stance at the aggregate level, while ensuring full respect of the Stability and Growth Pact,” the statement said.
Walmart (WMT) reported Q4 FY 2020 earnings of $1.38 per share (versus $1.41 per share in Q4 FY 2019), missing analysts' consensus estimate of $1.44 per share.
The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $141.700 bln (+2.1% y/y), roughly in line with analysts' consensus estimate of $141.673 bln.
The company also issued in-line guidance for FY 2021, projecting EPS of $5.00-5.15 (versus analysts' consensus estimate of $5.12) and net sales growth +3% y/y in constant currency.
WMT fell to $117.60 (-0.25%) in pre-market trading.
FXStreet reports that Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, noted that occasional bullish attempts in the European cross could run out of steam in the 0.8380 zone.
“EUR/GBP is finding some near term support around .8300 and is seeing a minor bounce. Rallies are likely to struggle .8380 – the January low. The market remains overall under pressure and the focus on the .8239 low and the 55 quarter moving average at .8226, which represents key support. The outlook is negative while capped by the downtrend at .8476 (drawn from the August high).”
“Below .8226 lie the June and October 2012 highs as well as the April 2016 high and the January and February 2014 lows at .8167/18.”
FXStreet reports that economist Ho Woei Chen, CFA, at UOB Group, reviewed the recently announced easing measures by the PBoC.
"The People's Bank of China (PBoC) cut the 1Y Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate by 10 bps to 3.15%, following similar moves on the 7-day reverse repo and 14-day reverse repo rates on 3 February, to 2.40% and 2.55% respectively. With the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) pegged to the MLF, the MLF cut is expected to translate to a reduction in the LPR by the same magnitude on the setting date this Thursday (20 February)."
"We expect the longer-tenor LPR (5Y & above) to also reflect this MLF cut. The MLF was last cut by 5 bps on 5 November 2019, leading to a drop in the LPR for both 1Y and 5Y & above tenors by 5 bps later in the month. Thus, the move today is expected to see the 1Y LPR at 4.05% on 20 February from current 4.15% and the 5Y & above LPR at 4.70% from 4.80%."
"The MLF cut today clearly signals China's monetary policy continues to be targeted at maintaining "reasonably ample" market liquidity. We have earlier expected a total of 25 bps cut to the LPR this year and this amount is now likely to be frontloaded in 1Q20 to cushion the negative growth impact from the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. If the outbreak is not contained by early-2Q20, then there is likelihood for a more aggressive interest rate cut in China this year."
"Other than interest rate cuts, we expect the PBoC to reduce bank's reserve requirement ratio (RRR) as a further boost to the credit channels. After the 150 bps cut in banks' RRR in 2019 and another 50 bps cut in January 2020, we are still projecting at least one more RRR cut within the next 3-6 months."
FXStreet reports that сable could target a move to the 1.3280 region when/if the 1.3102 level is cleared, suggested Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank.
"GBP/USD has so far been thwarted by the 55 day ma at 1.30645 and is easing back from here - this should be pretty limited The overall pattern looks like a potential falling wedge (or continuation pattern) BUT this will only be confirmed by a close above the short term downtrend at 1.3102. This would confirm the move higher to initially 1.3285 and the 2015-2020 resistance line at 1.3412."
According to the report from Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), indicator of economic sentiment for Germany decreased sharply in February, falling 18.0 points to a new reading of 8.7 points. The indicator is thus slightly below its December 2019 level. The assessment of the economic situation in Germany has also worsened compared to the previous month, with the corresponding indicator dropping to a level of minus 15.7 points, 6.2 points lower than in January.
"The feared negative effects of the Coronavirus epidemic in China on world trade have been causing a considerable decline of the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany. Expectations regarding the development of the export-intensive sectors of the economy have dropped particularly sharply. Besides, the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020 saw a worse-than-expected development of the German economy. Both the downward revision of the assessment of the economic situation and the downturn in expectations show clearly that economic development is rather fragile at the moment," comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach..
The financial market experts' expectations regarding the economic development in the eurozone have experienced a slightly less pronounced drop than those for Germany, with the corresponding indicator falling by 15.2 points to a current level of 10.4 points in February. The indicator for the current economic situation in the eurozone in February remained almost constant, leaving the index at a level of minus 10.3 points, 0.4 points lower than in January.
Along with economic expectations, inflation expectations for the eurozone are also falling, with the corresponding indicator dropping 13.7 points to 4.7 points.
According to the report from Office for National Statistics, from October to December the UK employment rate was estimated at a record high of 76.5%, 0.6 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 0.4 percentage points up on the previous quarter.
The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 3.8%, 0.2 percentage points lower than a year earlier and 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous quarter.
The UK economic inactivity rate was estimated at a record low of 20.5%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous year and 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous quarter.
Estimated annual growth in average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain slowed to 2.9% from 3.2% last month for total pay (including bonuses) and to 3.2% from 3.4% for regular pay (excluding bonuses). Economists had expected a 3.0% increase for total pay and 3.3% increase for regular pay.
In real terms (after adjusting for inflation), annual growth in total pay is estimated to be 1.4% and annual growth in regular pay is estimated to be 1.8%.
There were an estimated 810,000 vacancies in the UK for November 2019 to January 2020; this is 7,000 more than the previous quarter but 50,000 fewer than a year earlier.
FXStreet reports that in the view of the analysts at TD Securities (TDS), the UK ILO Unemployment Rate is likely to tick higher in December while the wage growth to lag.
"While the Bank of England's last MPR looks for the unemployment rate to stay unchanged at 3.8% for the next 3-4 months, we look for an uptick to 3.9% in December (mkt 3.8%), with the potential for another pop higher in January.
For wage growth we look for the recent pattern of deceleration to continue, with headline wage growth slowing to 3.0% y/y (mkt 3.0%), and private sector regular pay to 3.3% y/y (mkt: 3.3%).
For the latter measure, the short-term trend growth rate has more than halved from a peak of 5.0% on a 3m/3m annualized basis in July to 2.2% as of November."
FXStreet reports that Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, believes the pair could fail and event spark a reversion in the 0.9960 area.
"USD/CHF appears to be baulking just ahead of tougher resistance at .9841/44, the September and October lows and the 200 day ma at .9963. We should see the market struggle here and we would not be surprised to see a reversal."
"Failure at current levels would place the market back in the range and re-target the .9613 January low and the September 2018 low at .9543."
FXStreet reports that analysts at TD Securities offer a brief preview of the German ZEW Survey lined for released later on Tuesday at 1000 GMT.
"February's German ZEW survey offers one of the first glimpses of the impact of the Coronavirus on markets and the economy.
We are roughly in line with the consensus for this month's release, with a decline in the Expectations component to 22 (mkt: 21.5), and a decline in the Current Situation to -11 (mkt: -10)."
According to the report from European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), in January 2020, the EU passenger car market contracted by 7.5% to 956,779 units. Major taxation changes announced by some EU member states for 2020 pulled registrations forward into December 2019, explaining this January drop. Other contributing factors included weakening global economic conditions and uncertainty caused by the UK's departure from the European Union.
As a result, demand for new passenger cars in the four major EU markets fell during the first month of 2020. France posted the strongest decline (-13.4%), followed by Spain (-7.6%), Germany (-7.3%) and Italy (-5.9%).
UOB Group's Senior Economist Alvin Liew and Senior FX Strategist Peter Chia reviewed the recently published GDP figures in the Japanese economy and the prospects of extra stimulus by the Bank of Japan.
"Japan's 4Q 2019 GDP growth contracted by 1.6% q/q (6.3% annualized rate) as the October sales tax and bad weather extracted its toll on private consumption and business spending, offsetting the positive contributions from public demand, net exports and private inventories."
"We had maintained a cautious stance on Japan's growth outlook as we see Japan facing significant challenges in 2020. Based on our expectations that the collapse of private spending could extend well into 2020, together with the lingering trade headwinds, and the latest threat of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), we believe that there is a high possibility that Japan will enter into a recession and we continue to project Japan's GDP will contract by 0.8% in 2020."
"We have held the view that the continued forward guidance without action form the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will not be sufficient and the BOJ will eventually renew its monetary easing in 2020. We expect the BOJ to renew easing monetary policy via deepening its negative policy call rate to -0.2% in 1Q 2020 at the March MPM (from -0.1% presently). And potentially other measures will follow if the domestic economic situation turns down further in 2020."
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:30 | Australia | RBA Meeting's Minutes |
During today's Asian trading, EUR/USD continued to remain near a 3-year high. Investors ' attention is focused on important market data from Germany, which is scheduled for publication on Tuesday.
The index of economic expectations of investors and analysts in Germany for the next 6 months, which is calculated by the ZEW research Institute, fell in March to 21.5 points compared to 26.7 points in the previous month, experts predict. Pessimism about the European economy has a negative impact on the Euro, and new negative data may increase pressure on the currency.
The yen strengthened against the us dollar, and reached a high on February 13
On Monday, "very bad data on Japan's GDP was published, but it is assumed that this is mainly due to the increase in the consumption tax from October, which shifted demand to the previous quarter, as well as a strong Typhoon," Saxo Bank said in a press release.
"Nevertheless, such a weak value once again shows the need for stimulus measures," the Bank's analysts believe. "More interesting is what will happen to the data for the first quarter in connection with the COVID-19 epidemic."
The Japanese economy in the 4th quarter fell at the highest rate in 5.5 years following the increase in the consumption tax in the country - by 6.3% compared to the same period in 2018. The reduction in GDP occurred for the first time since the 3rd quarter of 2018.
Experts warn that the country's economy may also decline in January-March 2020 due to the spread of the coronavirus. A fall in GDP for two consecutive quarters would mean a technical recession.
The ICE Dollar index, which shows the value of the US dollar against six major world currencies, rose 0.16% from the previous day.
Moody's Investors Service says in a new report that the coronavirus outbreak will weaken the revenue and cash flow of Chinese construction companies in the first half of 2020, a credit negative. Companies with high exposure to Hubei Province and the property sector are the most exposed.
"Most construction companies in our rated portfolio have manageable exposure to Hubei Province, while property development on average accounts for 8% of revenue," says Sue Su, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst.
"The rated state-owned companies have adequate liquidity buffers to withstand weaker revenue and cash flow over the next three months, with government support also likely if needed, but liquidity risk could rise for smaller and privately owned construction companies," adds Su.
Moody's expects the short-term disruption from the coronavirus outbreak will raise debt/EBITDA for the 12 months ending June 2020 before returning to current levels over the next 12-18 months, supported by strong order backlogs.
However, the impact will be more pronounced if the disruption is prolonged and more restrictive measures are introduced that inhibit the movement of labor and raw materials.
Moody's also lowered China growth forecast to 5.2% for 2020 from 5.8% previously, reflecting a severe but short-lived economic impact.
According to the analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes revealed that the central bank remains open to further easing if needed.
"The minutes do not specifically refer to the need for the economy to deteriorate before the RBA will consider another rate cut. They suggest an open approach to lack of progress toward the Bank's target is still a possible trigger for a move lower.
But we are careful about overplaying this as Governor Lowe has been clear about what economic developments would be needed to get the Bank back to easing.
In his speech on 5 February, the Governor of RBA concluded that − given the cost of low interest rates − things would have to get worse for the RBA to ease again.
In contrast the minutes from the RBA's February meeting do not make any reference to higher unemployment or lower inflation being necessary for another rate cut."
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.0965 (1173)
$1.0928 (835)
$1.0901 (302)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.0832
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.0808 (2527)
$1.0776 (2095)
$1.0736 (1684)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date March, 6 is 102102 contracts (according to data from February, 14) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (6394);
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.3148 (3579)
$1.3118 (3866)
$1.3094 (2109)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2997
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.2975 (650)
$1.2949 (1435)
$1.2917 (2311)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 6 is 28047 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3050 (3866);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 6 is 29347 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (3658);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.05 versus 1.06 from the previous trading day according to data from February, 14
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
Raw materials | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
Brent | 57.47 | 0.4 |
WTI | 52.21 | 0.13 |
Silver | 17.76 | 0.28 |
Gold | 1581.283 | -0.11 |
Palladium | 2506.91 | 3.32 |
Index | Change, points | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|---|
NIKKEI 225 | -164.35 | 23523.24 | -0.69 |
Hang Seng | 144 | 27959.6 | 0.52 |
KOSPI | -1.42 | 2242.17 | -0.06 |
ASX 200 | -5.1 | 7125.1 | -0.07 |
FTSE 100 | 24.12 | 7433.25 | 0.33 |
DAX | 39.68 | 13783.89 | 0.29 |
CAC 40 | 16.6 | 6085.95 | 0.27 |
Pare | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
AUDUSD | 0.67115 | -0.03 |
EURJPY | 119.051 | 0.12 |
EURUSD | 1.08343 | 0.02 |
GBPJPY | 142.86 | -0.24 |
GBPUSD | 1.30017 | -0.33 |
NZDUSD | 0.64358 | 0.02 |
USDCAD | 1.32353 | -0.11 |
USDCHF | 0.9808 | -0.11 |
USDJPY | 109.876 | 0.09 |
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