Forex-novosti i prognoze od 17-07-2019

Major US stock indexes fell moderately amid mixed corporate reports and reports that negotiations between the US and China were stumped, as the US is trying to figure out what to do with Huawei.

Bank of America (BAC) reported quarterly earnings of $ 0.74 per share, which was $ 0.03 above the average forecast. Bank revenue coincided with forecasts. However, the financial director warned that lower rates would have a negative impact on the growth of net interest income.

Meanwhile, CSX Corp. (CSX) reported weaker than analysts predicted quarterly results. In addition, the company said they expect annual revenues to fall by 1-2%. This put pressure on transport company stocks.

Both earnings and revenue of United Airlines (UAL) were better than analysts had expected. The company also increased its share repurchase program by $ 3 billion.

The focus of market participants was also disappointing data on the US housing market. The Commerce Department reported that housing construction fell in July for the second month in a row, and the number of building permits dropped to a 2-year low, indicating that the housing market continues to experience difficulties despite the decline in mortgage rates. Housing construction fell by 0.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,253 million units last month, as the recovery in single-family housing construction was offset by a fall in multi-family housing construction. Economists had forecast that bookmarks for new homes would fall to 1.261 million units. The construction of single-family homes, which account for the largest share of the housing market, grew by 3.5% to 847,000 units in June, which partially offset the sharp drop in May. Building permits fell 6.1% to 1,220 million units in June, the lowest level since May 2017.

A certain influence on the course of trading was rendered by the Fed's “Beige Book” report. The paper reported that economic activity continued to grow, despite continuing concerns about trade. In 12 federal districts, they reported moderate economic growth at the beginning of the summer, with many companies expressing optimism about the future, although they are closely following ongoing trade negotiations. "In general, the outlook for the coming months was positive, while moderate growth is expected to continue, despite widespread concerns about possible negative effects from trade uncertainty," the report said.

Most of the components of DOW recorded a decline (23 of 30). Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA; -2.31%) was an outsider. The growth leader was the shares of The Boeing Co. (BA; + 1.64%).

Most sectors of the S & P finished trading in the red. The largest decline was in the industrial goods sector (-1.3%). The utility sector grew the most (+ 0.5%).

At the time of closing:

Dow 27,220.13 -115.50 -0.42%

S & P 500 2,984.42  -19.62 -0.65%

Nasdaq 100 8,185.21 -37.59 -0.46%

Nathan Janzen, the senior economist at Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), notes that Canada’s manufacturing sales rose 1.6% in May, and the increase extends a recent string of Canadian manufacturing outperformance relative to the U.S.

• “The increase in manufacturing sales in May was, as expected, largely concentrated in the transportation sector.  Still, sales edged up 0.2% excluding transportation components, and have yet to decline on that basis in any month of this year.
• To be sure, growth in the Canadian manufacturing sector has not exactly been spectacular – but sales volumes (i.e. excluding price impacts) were still up 3.5% from a year ago in May and 2.0% year-to-date in 2019.
• For now, though, the domestic economic data continues to look a little better. And, with inflation also holding around 2%, is another reason the Bank of Canada won’t likely need to rush to follow the US Fed with a widely expected rate cut later this month.”

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed on Wednesday that crude inventories declined by 3.116 million barrels in the week ended July 12. Economists had forecast a fall of 3.000 million barrels.

At the same time, gasoline stocks increased by 3.565 million barrels, while analysts had expected a drop of 2.400 million barrels. Distillate stocks surged by 5.686 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a decline of 1.000 million barrels.

Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. decreased by 300,000 barrels a day to 12.000 million barrels a day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.8 million barrels per day last week, down by 470,000 barrels per day from the previous week.

Gerard Burg, the senior economist at National Australia Bank (NAB), notes that China’s economy grew by 6.2% yoy in Q2 2019, in line with their expectations and down from +6.4% yoy in both Q1 2019 and Q4 2018.

• “This rate of growth is softer than the trough recorded during the GFC, meaning that growth in Q2 was the slowest since 1990. Policymakers continue to send mixed messages regarding economic stimulus – however, we believe that they are providing sufficient monetary and fiscal support to stabilize short term economic growth around these levels (although trade remains an uncertainty). Our growth forecasts remain unchanged, at 6.25% this year, 6.0% in 2020 and 5.8% in 2021.
• The provision of monetary support to China’s economy has been clearly evident in credit growth in the first half of 2019, and suggests that Chinese authorities have been more concerned this year with short term growth than medium-term debt risks. New credit issuance increased by over 31% yoy in this period, to total RMB 13.2 trillion.
• Rumours in July suggest that the PBoC is set to cut the benchmark one-year lending rate. This move (should it happen) would be largely symbolic – the rate hasn’t changed since October 2015, and doesn’t appear to be particularly relevant since the switch in monetary policy from a quantity to a price based approach (which occurred in November 2015). In contrast, short term interbank lending rates are more important and these rates eased in late-June and early July.”

• Yuan is at levels warranted by China's economic fundamentals

Statistics Canada released its Monthly Survey of Manufacturing on Wednesday, which showed that the Canadian manufacturing sales climbed 1.6 percent m-o-m in May to CAD58.91 billion, following a revised 0.4 percent m-o-m decline in April (originally a 0.6 percent m-o-m drop).

Economists had anticipated an advance of 2.0 percent m-o-m for May.

According to the survey, sales increased in 12 of 21 industries, representing 66.2 percent of total manufacturing sales. The transportation equipment industry (+8.1 percent m-o-m) posted the largest advance in May. Sales also increased in the fabricated metal product (+3.1 percent m-o-m), chemical (+2.1 percent m-o-m), the petroleum and coal product (+2.0 percent m-o-m) and machinery (+1.7 percent m-o-m) industries. These gains, however, were partially offset by declines in the food (-1.7 percent m-o-m), primary metal (-2.1 percent m-o-m) and printing and related support activities (-5.6 percent m-o-m) industries.

Overall, sales of durable goods rose 3.0 percent m-o-m in May, while sales of non-durable goods edged up 0.1 percent m-o-m.

U.S. stock-index futures traded flat on Wednesday, as investors digested the latest batch of quarterly corporate results and U.S. housing market data.

Global Stocks:

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

The Commerce Department reported on Wednesday the building permits issued for privately owned housing units plunged by 6.1 percent m-o-m in June to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.220 million (the lowest level since May 2017), while housing starts fell by 0.9 percent m-o-m to an annual rate 1.253 million.

Economists had forecast housing starts increasing by 1.9 percent m-o-m last month and building permits edging up 0.1 percent m-o-m.

Data for May was revised slightly down to show homebuilding declining to a pace of 1.265 million units, instead of falling to a rate of 1.269 million units as previously reported.

According to the report, permits for single-family homes, the largest segment of the market, rose 0.4 percent m-o-m at 813,000 in June, while approvals for the multi-family homes segment declined 16.8 percent m-o-m to a 407,000 unit-rate.

In the meantime, groundbreaking on single-family homes rose 3.5 percent m-o-m to a rate of 847,000 units in June, while housing starts for the multi-family tumbled climbed 9.2 percent m-o-m to a 406,000-unit pace.

Statistics Canada reported on Wednesday the country’s consumer price index (CPI) declined 0.2 percent m-o-m in June, following a 0.4 percent m-o-m advance in the previous month.

On the y-o-y basis, Canada’s inflation rate increased 2.0 percent last month, decelerating from a 2.4 percent gain in May.

Economists had predicted inflation would decrease 0.2 percent m-o-m but gain 2.0 percent y-o-y in June.

According to the report, prices rose in seven of eight major components in the 12 months to June. The energy prices (-4.1 percent y-o-y) were the only contributor to the June slowdown in the headline CPI. Excluding energy, the CPI increased 2.6 percent y-o-y in June.

Meanwhile, the closely watched the Bank of Canada's core index rose 2.0 percent y-o-y in June after gaining 2.1 percent y-o-y in the previous month. Economists had forecast an advance of 2.6 percent y-o-y.

Bank of America (BAC) reported Q2 FY 2019 earnings of $0.74 per share (versus $0.63 in Q2 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus of $0.71.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $23.100 bln (+2.7% y/y), generally in line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $23.130 bln.

BAC fell to $28.86 (-0.45%) in pre-market trading.

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the U.S. housing starts to fall a small 0.7% m/m in June, lowering its level to 1,260k from 1,269k before.

• “Despite this decline, housing starts are likely to end the quarter at a solid level, registering an improvement over Q1 and Q4, as demand continues to gradually increase on the back of lower mortgage rates. On a similar note, building permits (a leading indicator for construction) likely rose marginally at 0.1% to 1,300k in June.”

Petr Krpata, an FX strategist at ING, notes that the latest CFTC positioning data shows that net combined positions on the Canadian dollar have turned positive in July for the first time since 1Q18. 

• "All eyes today will be on the Canadian inflation report for June. According to a Bloomberg survey, headline CPI should decelerate, although all core measures (preferred by the Bank of Canada) should stay above the 2% target range mid-point. This should allow the BoC to stick to a neutral stance, keeping any USD/CAD rebound broadly limited. Today, we expect the pair to stay range-bound and consolidate below 1.3050."

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Wednesday the mortgage application volume in the U.S. fell 1.1 percent in the week ended July 12, following a 2.4 percent decrease in the previous week.

According to the report, applications to purchase a home dropped 3.8 percent, while refinance applications rose 1.5 percent.

Meanwhile, the average fixed 30-year mortgage rate increased to 4.12 percent from 4.04 percent.

“Refinance applications increased, with activity reaching its highest level in a month, driven mainly by FHA refinance applications. Historically, government refinance activity lags slightly in response to rate changes,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist.

TD Securities' analysts note that the Eurozone’s headline CPI was unexpectedly revised a tick higher to 1.3% y/y in June, although core CPI was unchanged from the initial print at 1.1%.

• “This is unlikely to alter the ECB's thinking all that much heading into next week's meeting, as it's not like it really changes the trajectory for core inflation. But at the margin, it does reduce the urgency to act and gives us a bit more confidence that next week will just see a change/strengthening in forward guidance, and not an outright rate cut.”

• Thinks risk of a no-deal Brexit is under-priced

Petr Krpata, an FX strategist at ING, notes that soft European June car sales figures highlighted the downside risk to the eurozone growth outlook, particularly in light of the openness of the eurozone economy and its exposure to car exports. 

• "EUR/USD should continue testing the 1.1200 level today. By extension, this does not bode particularly well for the satellite central and eastern European economies exposed to (a) eurozone growth; and (b) the car industry. This is one of the key reasons why we remain negative on the overbought Czech koruna."

Analysts at Westpac are recommending to sell EUR/GBP at 0.9085 levels for the target price of 0.8845, while maintaining a stop loss of 0.9125.

• A no-deal Brexit is taxing minds once again sending EUR/GBP to six-month highs through 0.90. However the pair is testing a key three-year resistance line and momentum indicators look very mature.

• Calls for the next UK leader to purge cabinet of “remainers” and pledges by both candidates to scrap the Northern Ireland backstop (even as the EU repeatedly rules out reopening May’s withdrawal agreement) have raised no-deal Brexit risks. However, Brexit pessimism may be overdone. We expect the next leader to have a more inclusive proBrussels cabinet, reducing fears of a no-deal Brexit.

• The ECB is likely to extend forward guidance and pre-commit to further easing measures at their next meeting (July 25); their list of easing options including further cuts to negative deposit rates and reintroduction of asset purchases. Calls for buying corporate bonds as well unsecured bank debt, in addition to sovereign debt, have been growing louder in recent days.”

According to first estimates from Eurostat, in May 2019 compared with April 2019, seasonally adjusted production in the construction sector decreased by 0.3% in both the euro area (EA19) and the EU28. In April 2019, production in construction decreased by 1.7% in the euro area and by 1.3% in the EU28. 

In May 2019 compared with May 2018, production in construction increased by 2.0% in the euro area and by 2.5% in the EU28.

In the euro area in May 2019, compared with April 2019, civil engineering fell by 0.8% and building construction by 0.3%. In the EU28, civil engineering fell by 0.5% and building construction by 0.2%.

In the euro area in May 2019, compared with May 2018, civil engineering increased by 2.3% and building construction by 2.0%.

In the EU28, civil engineering rose by 4.7% and building construction by 2.0%.

According to the report from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, the euro area annual inflation rate was 1.3% in June 2019, up from 1.2% in May. A year earlier, the rate was 2.0%. European Union annual inflation was 1.6% in June 2019, stable compared to May. A year earlier, the rate was 2.1%.

The lowest annual rates were registered in Greece (0.2%), Cyprus (0.3%), Denmark and Croatia (both 0.5%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Romania (3.9%), Hungary (3.4%) and Latvia (3.1%). Compared with May, annual inflation fell in seventeen Member States, remained stable in one and rose in nine.

In June, the highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from services (+0.73 percentage points, pp), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.30 pp), energy (+0.17 pp) and non-energy industrial goods (+0.07 pp).

• Global economy is expanding moderately

• Domestic demand in the Japanese economy is holding firm

• Says BOJ will mull additional easing if price momentum is lost

• Japanese economy to also keep expanding moderately

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 2.0% in June 2019, unchanged from May 2019.

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 1.9% in June 2019, unchanged from May 2019.

The largest downward contributions to change in the 12-month rate between May and June 2019 came from motor fuels, accommodation services and electricity, gas and other fuels, with prices in each category falling between May and June 2019 compared with price rises between the same two months a year ago. The largest offsetting upward contributions to change came from clothing and food.

Some other details on the day as producer price and retail price figures are released:

PPI output -0.1% vs +0.1% m/m expected

PPI output +1.6% vs +1.7% y/y expected

PPI input -1.4% vs -0.5% m/m expected

PPI input -0.3% vs +0.3% y/y expected

RPI +0.1% vs +0.1% m/m expected

RPI +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y expected

Danske Bank analysts note that yesterday Fed officials revealed further their preferences on how to support the US economy.

“Jerome Powell told a Paris audience that the Fed is "carefully monitoring" downside risks to U.S. growth and "will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion”, echoing his Congressional testimony. Chicago President Charles Evans predicted two reductions this year based on the need to lift inflation, although also saying it might not be enough. Dallas chief Robert Kaplan said a "tactical" cut might be warranted, but one should be enough. We are predicting the Fed will cut rates three times this fall, starting with a cut at the July meeting.”

Washington "will do what it can do" to help defuse a political and economic dispute between its allies South Korea and Japan, the top U.S. diplomat responsible for Asia policy said.

David Stilwell, U.S. assistant secretary of state for Asian and Pacific affairs, was in Seoul for a multi-day visit. Washington has been hesitant to become involved in the dispute, and Stilwell did not say what steps the United States would be willing to take.

South Korea and Japan are locked in a dispute ranging from Japan's wartime use of forced labour to trade curbs that threaten to disrupt global supplies of memory chips and smartphones.

Analysts at TD Securities continue to expect the UK inflation to come in roughly in line with the BoE's forecasts from the May IR, with headline CPI of 2.0% y/y in June (mkt also at 2.0%).

“The fall in crude oil prices into June should weigh on the headline figure, and clothing discounts may have been steeper than normal in June with the poor weather for the first part of the month, though this could be balanced out by a boost in other areas from the steep depreciation of GBP through the spring. We look for core CPI to edge up from 1.7% to 1.8% y/y (mkt: 1.8%), back to where it was in Feb-Apr this year.”

• ECB stands ready to adjust all of its instruments as appropriate

• Need to ensure inflation continues to move towards target

• Underlying inflation is expected to increase over the medium term, supported by our monetary policy measures, the ongoing economic expansion and stronger wage growth.

• Economic data, survey information points to somewhat weaker growth in Q2, Q3

• Risks surrounding euro area growth outlook continue to be tilted to the downside

China may have just signaled it’s going more hard-line on trade, but it could actually be a good thing, former top White House trade negotiator Clete Willems, told.

Beijing added a new member to its negotiating team last week: Commerce minister Zhong Shan, who’s seen by many officials in Washington as a hard-liner. It could be a sign that Chinese leader Xi Jinping is standing firm on trade, analysts say.

By adding Zhong to the negotiating team, it shows that Xi is trying to win over the hard-liners, said Willems, who left his role as deputy director of the National Economic Council (NEC) in March.

“China has now elevated its commerce minister Zhong Shan and made him a part of the core negotiating team along with (Vice Premier) Liu He. A lot of people are nervous — he’s seen as a hard-liner,” Willems told.

But he’s not overly concerned. “I actually think it’s a good thing because what it shows is that President Xi is trying to get buy-in from both the hard-line within China and the reformers, which is going to be necessary ingredients for a deal,” Willems said.

“President Xi is only going to be able to get a deal if the hard-liners are bought in,” he added.

The Barclays Research Team expect the EUR/USD pair to trade neutral to lower in the coming months amid tempered expectations of aggressive rate cuts.

• EUR/USD to move towards 1.08 by Q2 2020 vs. 1.06 previous forecast.

• Expect the Fed to ease in the face of persistently low inflation, sizeable external risks and moderation of US growth.

• The intensity of cuts and the risks to the path have moderated.

• Indefinite suspension of further US tariffs and technology sanctions on China - and likely retaliation - imply a modestly better growth path for both economies and for connected trading partners, reducing risks to the global economy.

• We now see a more persistent but shallower path of USD appreciation, as there is a less negative bite from US interest rates in the near term and less of a rise in non-US risk premia, given the improved global outlook.

According to the report from European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, in June 2019, new car registrations in the European Union fell by 7.8% to 1,446,183 units, the worst monthly decline since December. France and Spain had falls of more than 8%, while German and U.K. sales fell 4.7% and 4.9% respectively.

To a large extent, this drop can be attributed to a negative calendar effect. On average, June only counted 19 working days across the EU this year, compared to roughly 21 days in 2018. As a result, the five major EU markets all posted declines, especially France (-8.4%) and Spain (-8.3%).

During the first half of 2019, demand for new passenger cars across the EU was down by 3.1% compared to the same period last year, counting 8.2 million registrations in total. With the exception of Germany (+0.5%), each of the big EU markets recorded a slight decline so far in 2019.

Danske Bank analysts point out that today the final euro area HICP figures for June will be released and will be a key release for markets.

“The German figures point to a slight upward revision in the euro area headline figure to 1.3% (from 1.2% in the flash estimate), but core inflation will likely stay at 1.1% in a sign that underlying inflation pressures remain subdued ahead of the ECB's July meeting taking place next week. In the UK, we also get inflation data for June. Market consensus is for headline inflation to remain steady around the BOE target of 2% while core inflation is expected to increase slightly from 1.7% in May.”

Fitch Ratings retained Japan's sovereign ratings at 'A' with a 'stable' outlook. The agency said the ratings balance the strengths of an advanced and wealthy economy, with high governance standards and strong public institutions, against weak medium-term growth prospects and high public debt.

Further, Japan has strong external finances supported by its current account surplus and large external credit and international investment positions. Moreover, the nation has reserve currency status and investors perceive Japan as safe haven. Nonetheless, Japan's high level of gross general government debt is the major rating constraint. 

Fitch forecast the economy to grow 0.8% this year, the same as in 2018. Growth is forecast to lose steam through the rest of the year and early 2020 on the back of weak exports and industrial output.

In view of ANZ analysts, the New Zealand economy has been gradually slowing as key economic tailwinds and headwinds duke it out, and it’s still not entirely clear which will be on top by year-end.

“We expect the tailwinds will regain the upper hand, seeing growth bottom out shortly. While these two opponents are closely matched, help is undoubtedly on the way. The RBNZ has already cut the OCR, and we expect they’ll do so again in August and November; the NZD remains around 2% below late-March levels; and Budget 2019 included a little extra fiscal stimulus. All up, we see annual growth slowing to 2% in Q2, before gradually lifting towards 3% in 2021. That’s not going to drive a strong inflation pulse, but we expect it will be sufficient to keep core inflation elevated close to the target midpoint.”

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1341 (1104)

$1.1313 (757)

$1.1280 (237)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1216

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1199 (3384)

$1.1169 (2882)

$1.1132 (3415)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date August, 9 is 62070 contracts (according to data from July, 16) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3737);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2669 (1780)

$1.2590 (857)

$1.2530 (245)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2415

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2385 (2483)

$1.2363 (2539)

$1.2336 (2061)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 9 is 16076 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (2053);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 9 is 16607 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2450 (2539);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.03 versus 1.09 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 16

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.