Forex-novosti i prognoze od 17-02-2020

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group note USD/CNH is seen sticking to its current consolidative theme. 

24-hour view: “USD traded between 6.9814 and 6.9968 last Friday, narrower than our expected sideway-trading range of 6.9650/6.9980. Momentum indicators are mostly neutral and we continue to expect USD to trade sideways, likely between 6.9750 and 6.9950.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “USD touched 7.0230 early last week and since then, it traded sideways in a relatively choppy manner. The price action is in line with our view from last Thursday (06 Feb, spot at 6.9780) wherein USD is expected to ‘trade sideways for now’. Momentum indicators are mostly neutral and from here, we continue to expect USD to trade within a 6.9500/7.0230 range.”

FXStreet reports that according to analysts at Nordea a side-effect of the coronavirus is that we will have a substantial disinflationary vibe coming up in March and April. EUR/SEK is currently at 10.5359.  

“Energy prices will be down at least 20% year over year in April. We will see that across the globe in inflation readings and it leaves a generally dovish taste in our mouths.”

“The interesting thing is that the Riksbank already acknowledged this temporary disinflationary environment due to energy prices last week but refrained from doing much about it. Even the rhetoric was kept largely unchanged, which leaves us with a slightly constructive SEK outlook in the short-term.”

“The short-term caveat to that view is the January inflation report out this week. January is almost notoriously a month that brings about negative inflation surprises in Sweden and this year we also lean that way from a risk/reward perspective given that the setback in energy prices is about to filter into inflation readings.”

FXStreet reports that Neil Shearing, an economist at Capital Economics, counts the first evidence of the impact the coronavirus has caused in the Chinese economy which has been severe. USD/CNY is traded at 6.9804, the same level it started the year. 

“The past week has brought the first evidence of the economic damage caused by the coronavirus. The numbers are stark. Passenger traffic in China is down by around 60% compared to the same period around the Lunar New Year holiday last year. Property sales have collapsed. And energy consumption has failed to rebound following its usual drop over the holiday period.” 

“There are also signs that the disruption is starting to spread to neighbouring economies through supply chains. Imports to Korea from China during the first ten days of this month fell by nearly 50% y/y.” 

“We have pencilled in a fall in output of 2.5% q/q (-10% annualised) on our CAP measure in the first quarter. The more important question, however, is how quickly any lost output can be made up.”

“If workplaces reopen soon, we think activity should rebound relatively quickly with lost output recovered over the rest of this year. But a prolonged shutdown could mean lost output is never recovered.”

FXStreet reports that in the opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/JPY is likely to trade within a side-lined theme in the next weeks, although an attempt to 110.00 and beyond still remains on the cards.

24-hour view: “USD did not ‘do much’ last Friday as it traded between 109.68 and 109.90, markedly narrower than our expected sideway-trading range of 109.50/110.00. Indicators are mostly flat and we continue to expect USD to trade sideways, likely between 109.60 and 110.00.”

FXStreet reports that Karen Jones, ana analyst at Commerzbank reports, notes AUD/USD continues recovering but needs to surpass the downtrend at 0.6744 to steams the rally. 

“AUD/USD continues to see a decent recovery from just ahead of the 2016-2020 support line at .6657, but rallies will need to overcome the accelerated downtrend at .6744 to alleviate immediate downside pressure and target the 200 day ma at .6855.” 

“Below .6650 there is very little support until the .6535/.6488 TD supports on the weekly and monthly charts.”

FXStreet reports that Strategists at Nordea continue to expect more downside pressure in the EUR/USD pair as the probability of Trump winning the election keeps rising, which is good for the US dollar. 

“As long as the Democrats are busy obstructing each other, it seems as if Trump's tailwind has no limit. This is one simple reason why we continue to look for more downside in EUR/USD.”

“The EUR has been sold broadly as German key figures have had a smelly week. (...) Current EUR trends may though fuel speculation that Trump will punish the Euro area with auto tariffs. Timing couldn’t be any worse, if he opted for such over the coming quarters.”

“Maybe the EUR will be helped a little by the PMI print this week. Most analysts seem to conclude that the virus will push the PMI lower again, but shouldn’t we usually expect a lagged effect on Germany from Chinese key figures. Our market based model is getting increasingly upbeat – maybe risks are on the upside for the PMI print. We bet so.”

FXStreet reports that the EUR/JPY pair is in 4 months low, currently trading at 119.12. Karen Jones, an analyst at Commerzbank, recommends lowering stop-loss as she has a negative bias for the pair. 

“EUR/JPY’s outlook remains negative and we regard the 121.15 high charted recently as an interim peak.” 

“We will maintain a negative bias and the break below the 119.26 mid-November low targets the 117.06 October low.”

“Lower stop from 120.25 to 120.15.”

FXStreet reports that  FX Strategists at UOB Group expect AUD/USD to keep the rangebound theme unchanged for the time being.

24-hour view: “Instead of 'edging down towards 0.6690', AUD trade in a quiet manner and within a narrow range of 0.6710/0.6732. Momentum indicators are mostly ‘neutral’ and AUD is likely to continue to trade sideways. Expected range for today, 0.6705/0.6740.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “AUD traded in a quiet manner last Friday (14 Feb) and registered an ‘inside day’ before closing little changed at 0.6715 (-0.05%). The price action offers no fresh clues and for now, we are holding on to our view from last Thursday (13 Feb, spot at 0.6730) wherein AUD is expected to trade sideways between 0.6650 and 0.6780.”

eFXdata reports that NAB discusses GBP/AUD technical outlook and adopts a bullish bias in the medium-term.

"The uptrend structure in play since 2016 has not been impacted in any way by the recent downward correction. The impulsive January uptrend broke above the daily Bollinger band on consecutive days. Corrections from such breakouts often hold the 20-day MA before re-asserting their trend...Awaiting renewed positive ST momentum," NAB notes.

"We anticipate the renewed uptrend bias retesting recent highs at 1.9730/60 in the coming weeks. A monthly close above 1.9738 will set up a likely challenge of LT trend resistance at 1.9950+,/' NAB adds.

FXStreet reports that analysts at Danske Bank expect more US dollar strength in the coming weeks, therefore, they think additional USD longs have potential.

"We still think the all overarching theme is the strengthening of the broad USD, its ramifications for other asset classes and the subsequent spill-over effects to the rest of G10 and EM-majors."

"Our predisposition is for more USD strength and it is especially noteworthy how IMM data do not suggest that USD positioning is particularly stretched long - if stretched at all."

"Leveraged accounts have heavily added short EUR/USD positions in recent weeks but we believe in a potential for additional USD longs and a continuation of the greenback rally."

eFXdata reports that Danske Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and continues to see the pair trading in 108-110 range in the near-term.

"We continue to expect 112 in 6M and 12M (unchanged), which reflects our view of a strong USD and an expectation that we will not see a worsening in US data but rather a (mild) improvement. EUR/JPY has started to struggle in recent month(s), driven primarily on the back of a declining EUR. This may indeed continue to be the case in the coming months," Danske notes.

"Near term, we see USD/JPY as trading in 108-110 range," Danske adds.

The US dollar traded steadily against the Euro, but rose against the yen amid some increased risk appetite in global markets due to a signal that China is ready to actively support the economy in the face of the spread of the coronavirus.

The People's Bank of China on Monday lowered the rate on loans issued under the medium-term lending program (MLF), hoping to reduce the cost of borrowing for businesses in the face of the spread of the coronavirus. As reported in the Central Bank's press release, the rate on loans for a year under MLF will be reduced to 3.15% from 3.25%.

Mizuho Bank experts noted that the Chinese Central Bank's stimulus measures reduce investors ' concerns about the possibility of a sharp slowdown in China's economic growth. This supports risk appetite and weakens demand for the yen, as well as other safe haven currencies.

The ICE Dollar index, which shows the value of the US dollar against six major world currencies, rose 0.01% from the previous day.

On Monday, US markets are closed due to the holiday (presidents ' Day), and trading activity is likely to be lower than usual.

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists remain bearish on EUR/USD, although they believe that a bottom could be in the making.

24-hour view: "We expected EUR to 'weaken further' last Friday but were of the view 'oversold conditions could limit any decline to a probe of the major 1.0810 support'. While EUR weaken as expected, it only touched a low of 1.0826. Downward momentum has waned and the downside risk appears to be limited for today. All in, EUR is expected to consolidate and trade sideways, likely between 1.0820 and 1.0860."

Next 1-3 weeks: "EUR eked out a fresh 'lower low' of 1.0826 last Friday before closing at 1.0830 (-0.09%). While the weak phase that started more than a week ago is still intact, the combination of waning momentum and oversold conditions suggest that a bottom may not be far away. As highlighted early last Friday (14 Feb, spot at 1.0840), while a dip below 1.0810 (we first indicated this level last Monday) would not be surprising, the next support at 1.0770 could be out of reach. On the upside, a move above 1.0890 ('strong resistance' was at 1.0910 last Friday) would indicate the current weakness in EUR has run its course."

FXStreet reports that cable's outlook is slightly positive, and the upside bias could extend to the 1.3160 region in the next weeks, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group.

24-hour view: "Expectation for GBP to 'edge nearer to 1.3100 before easing' did not materialize as it traded in a relatively quiet manner between 1.3001 and 1.3063 before settling little change at 1.3046 (+0.04%). The underlying tone is on the firm side and this would likely translate into a higher trading range of 1.3015/1.3080 (a sustained advance above 1.3085 is not expected)."

Next 1-3 weeks: "While we noted yesterday (13 Feb, spot at 1.2955) that 'downward pressure has more or less dissipated', we expected GBP to 'trade sideways within a 1.2850/1.3060 range'. However, GBP staged a sudden rally and moved above the top of the range as it touched 1.3069. Despite the strong advance, we do not view the current GBP strength as part of an uptrend. That said, the short-term strength could extend further to 1.3160 in the coming days. In other words, the outlook for GBP is deemed as mildly positive for now. Support is at 1.2990 but only a break of 1.2950 would indicate the upside risk has dissipated."

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0965 (1173)

$1.0928 (835)

$1.0901 (302)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0837

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0808 (2527)

$1.0776 (2095)

$1.0736 (1684)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date March, 6 is 102102 contracts (according to data from February, 14) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (6394);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3148 (3579)

$1.3118 (3866)

$1.3094 (2109)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3042

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2975 (650)

$1.2949 (1435)

$1.2917 (2311)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 6 is 28047 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3050 (3866);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 6 is 29347 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (3658);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.05 versus 1.06 from the previous trading day according to data from February, 14

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.