|03:00 (GMT)||China||Trade Balance, bln||December||75.40||72.35|
|07:45 (GMT)||France||CPI, y/y||December||0.2%||0%|
|07:45 (GMT)||France||CPI, m/m||December||0.2%||0.2%|
|12:30 (GMT)||Eurozone||ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts|
|13:30 (GMT)||U.S.||Continuing Jobless Claims||January||5072|
|13:30 (GMT)||U.S.||Initial Jobless Claims||January||787||780|
|13:30 (GMT)||U.S.||Import Price Index||December||0.1%||0.6%|
|16:00 (GMT)||U.S.||FOMC Member Bostic Speaks|
|17:30 (GMT)||U.S.||Fed Chair Powell Speaks|
|18:00 (GMT)||U.S.||FOMC Member Kaplan Speak|
|21:45 (GMT)||New Zealand||Food Prices Index, y/y||December||2.6%|
FXStreet reports that analysts at Rabobank suggest that the EUR/GBP pair is set to move toward 0.88 at the end of the year as the UK’s rapid vaccine roll-out can lessen the British economic damage caused by covid restrictions.
“It is not our central view that the BoE will announce a negative Bank rate. Aside from the arguments debating the pros and cons, given the clear resistance of various members it may now reek of a last-ditch measure – a situation which the BoE would probably want to avoid. This, however, doesn’t mean that the debate will cease.”
“This week the EU and UK are starting talks to secure a memorandum of understanding on regulation for financial services. This is expected by March, though newswires are reporting that the EU is in no rush to grant the UK equivalence as it tries to secure more business for itself. These talks suggest that echoes of Brexit will remain an influence for the pound in the coming months.”
“While economic uncertainty and speculation over policy are likely to leave GBP vulnerable in the coming months, assuming a bounce in the UK economic outlook we see scope for a move towards EUR/GBP 0.88 towards the latter part of the year.”
The U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) revealed on Wednesday that crude inventories fell
by 3247 million barrels in the week ended January 8. Economists had forecast a
decline of 2.266 million barrels.
At the same time, gasoline stocks rose by 4.395 million barrels, while analysts had expected a build of 2.695 million barrels. Distillate stocks jumped by 4.786 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a gain of 2.671 million barrels.
Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. remained unchanged at 11.000 million barrels a day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million barrels per day last week, increased by 0.9 million barrels per day from the previous week.
FXStreet reports that Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, note that silver (XAG/USD) has seen a swift rejection from the 78.6% retracement at 28.12 and near-term risk remains for losses to the 200-day ma at 22.24.
“Silver was rejected by the 78.6% retracement at 28.12 last week, and sold off sharply. The sell-off is attempting to stabilise at the 61.8% retracement at 24.20, this together with the December lows at 23.56 guard the 200-day ma at 22.24. Currently, near-term risks remain on the downside.”
“Recovery off the 24.20/23.56 band should see the market re-try the topside but the recent high at 27.97 and Fibo resistance at 28.12 are a tough barrier to overcome."
FXStreet notes that the Canadian dollar closed 2020 near a three-year high versus the US dollar. Drivers of medium-term strength remain in place but analysts at Credit Suisse prefer to sell USD/CAD rallies for now.
“Over the next three months, we continue to see potential for USD/CAD to move towards our 1.2550 target, as the fundamental drivers of strength remain in place. High fiscal support to the growth outlook from the Trudeau administration.”
“The tactical outlook is not very attractive, due to the recent strength in the Canadian oil sector is the product of pipeline construction progress, and the stance on key projects of incoming US administration is yet unknown. COVID-19 infection surge in December drives risk of dovish policy surprise from BoC at upcoming 20 January meeting. This leaves us for the time being more willing to sell rallies in USD/CAD to 1.2900, than to engage immediately with USD/CAD downside.”
U.S. stock-index futures fell slightly on Wednesday, as investors maintained a cautious stance on the riskier assets ahead of the impeachment vote in Washington later today.
Today's Change, points
Today's Change, %
FXStreet reports that уconomists at Nordea see the EUR/USD pair peaking in the first half of the year as the USD yield curve is still alive. The USD curve has more steepening potential, while the potential is very modest in the EUR curve.
“EUR/USD could consequently peak during the first half of this year because of a wider USD-EUR interest rates spread.”
“A too strong EUR will turn into a slight headache for European exports, while the US looks ripe for a solid economical comeback meanwhile. We accordingly adjust our forecast to reflect this, and expect a peak in EUR/USD during first half of 2021 around the 1.25-1.27 area before a reversal longer alongside higher spreads between USD and EUR interest rates.”
(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)
ALTRIA GROUP INC.
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP
Cisco Systems Inc
Citigroup Inc., NYSE
Deere & Company, NYSE
E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co
Exxon Mobil Corp
FedEx Corporation, NYSE
Ford Motor Co.
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE
General Electric Co
General Motors Company, NYSE
Home Depot Inc
HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.
International Paper Company
Johnson & Johnson
JPMorgan Chase and Co
Merck & Co Inc
Procter & Gamble Co
Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ
The Coca-Cola Co
Twitter, Inc., NYSE
Verizon Communications Inc
Wal-Mart Stores Inc
Walt Disney Co
Yandex N.V., NASDAQ
Int'l Paper (IP) initiated with a Sell at UBS; target $40
Tesla (TSLA) initiated with a Hold at Edward Jones
DuPont (DD) downgraded to Hold from Buy at HSBC Securities; target $74
General Motors (GM) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Nomura; target raised to $60
Exxon Mobil (XOM) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; target raised to $56
Home Depot (HD) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Guggenheim; target $310
MasterCard (MA) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; target raised to $415
Twitter (TWTR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at MKM Partners; target raised to $60
Visa (V) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; target raised to $250
Department announced on Wednesday the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4
percent m-o-m in December, following an unrevised 0.2 percent m-o-m gain in the
Over the last 12 months, the CPI increased 1.4 percent y-o-y after a 1.2 percent climb in the 12 months through November. This was the highest reading since September.
Economists had forecast the CPI to increase 0.4 percent m-o-m and 1.3 percent y-o-y in the 12-month period.
According to the report, the December advance in the all items index was driven by an 8.4-percent jump in the gasoline index, which accounted for more than 60 percent of the overall gain. The other components of the energy index were mixed, resulting in an increase of 4.0 percent for the month. The food index rose by 0.4 percent m-o-m in December, as both the food at home and the food away from home indexes went up 0.4 percent m-o-m.
Meanwhile, the core CPI excluding volatile food and fuel costs rose 0.1 percent m-o-m in December after an unrevised 0.2 percent m-o-m increase in the previous month.
In the 12 months through December, the core CPI surged 1.6 percent, the same pace as in the 12 months ending November.
Economists had forecast the core CPI to edge up 0.1 percent m-o-m and to jump 1.6 percent y-o-y last month.
|09:00||Eurozone||ECB President Lagarde Speaks|
|10:00||Eurozone||Industrial production, (MoM)||November||2.3%||0.2%||2.5%|
|10:00||Eurozone||Industrial Production (YoY)||November||-3.5%||-3.3%||-0.6%|
GBP continued to appreciate against its major rivals in the European session on Wednesday, as investors pushed back their expectations of the Bank of England (BoE) taking interest rates into negative territory after Wednesday's comments by the BoE's governor Andrew Bailey.
Speaking to business leaders at a virtual event in Scotland on Tuesday, Bailey said that the negative rates were a controversial subject as there were “lots of issues” with cutting interest rates into negative territory. According to BoE's governor, the negative rates would complicate the banks’ efforts to be profitable and force them to restrict lending. Bailey added, however, that the BoE's policymakers would continue studying negative rates. He also acknowledged that Britain’s economy was in a “very difficult period” due to the recent Covid-19 lockdown, but noted that the impact of the latest coronavirus restrictions appeared less severe than that in spring of 2020.
Bailey's remarks on negative rates made market participants push back their forecasts for when Britain’s central bank might cut rates. Market participants now expect that a sub-zero rate cut could come in June. Before Bailey’s speech, those expectations were for May.
FXStreet reports that analysts at Credit Suisse apprise that the USD/JPY pair has been capped at a cluster of resistances at 104.33/77 and only above here would see a bullish “wedge” reversal established.
“USD/JPY strength has been capped for now as expected at a cluster of major resistances, starting at its downtrend from last March at 104.33 and stretching up to the December high at 104.77. However, we remain of the view we may be witnessing the construction of a bullish falling ‘wedge’ reversal.”
“Only above 104.77 would mark a more important reversal higher to open up a move to 105.68 next, then likely the 200-day average at 105.88, which we would expect to cap at first.”
Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Wednesday the mortgage application volume
in the U.S. surged 16.7 percent in the week ended January 8, following a 1.7
percent advance in the previous week. This was the largest gain since a record
55.4 percent jump registered during the first week of March.
According to the report, applications to purchase a home increased 8.0 percent, while refinance applications climbed 20.1 percent.
Meanwhile, the average fixed 30-year mortgage rate rose from 2.86 percent to 2.88 percent.
“Booming refinance activity in the first full week of 2021 caused mortgage applications to surge to their highest level since March 2020, despite most mortgage rates in the survey rising last week,” noted Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting. “The expectation of additional fiscal stimulus from the incoming administration, and the rollout of vaccines improving the outlook, drove Treasury yields and rates higher.”
FXStreet reports that the EUR/USD pair is expected to see a lengthier consolidation/corrective phase, but with this seen as temporary ahead of an eventual break above 1.2355 for a move to 1.2518/98, which analysts at Credit Suisse look to then cap.
“EUR/USD has recovered from near-term price support at 1.2129/22 as expected, but with the USD itself having been to major support our bias remains for further consolidation/corrective weakness before the core uptrend eventually resumes.”
“With resistance at 1.2231 capping, the cross can still keep the immediate risk lower with support seen at 1.2180 initially, then 1.2132/22. Beneath can see a deeper setback to 1.2065/59 – the December low and 38.2% retracement of the November/January rally – where we then look for an attempt to find a floor.”
“Above 1.2231 can see a move back to 1.2285, but with a break above here needed to clear the way for a retest of 1.2345/55. Beyond here can reassert the core uptrend with resistance seen at 1.2414 next ahead of 1.2477 and then our core objective at 1.2518/98.”
FXStreet notes that gold is attempting to recover off trendline support at $1819. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, notes that the yellow metal will face initial resistance at $1906.
“Gold sold off sharply last week all the way back to the 10-month uptrend currently at $1819. This is currently holding the downside and the market is attempting to recover.”
“Near-term rallies will find initial resistance at $1906 the 21st December high ahead of the November and September highs at $1965.84/$1973.8. This remains the barrier to the 78.6% retracement at $2006.”
“Below the $1819 level lies key support, which remains the $1760/$1765.61 May high and 50% retracement. We view the market as having based here, and note that this support is further reinforced by the $1776 55-week ma.”
FXStreet notes that GBP/USD continues to perform strongly and strength has already extended to the recent high and “neckline” to the 2018 top at 1.3704/20. Above 1.3720, the cable should see a direct resumption of the core bull trend with resistance then at 1.3804 and eventually 1.4302/77, per Credit Suisse.
“GBP/USD has seen an impressive recovery from the late December low at 1.3430 and strength has already extended to within touching distance of the recent high and key ‘neckline’ to the 2018 top at 1.3704/20. With a major base in place above 1.3514 we continue to look for a clear break above here to confirm the core uptrend has indeed resumed. We would then see resistance next at 1.3804 ahead of 1.3997/1.4000 and then our first main objective/resistance at 1.4302/77 – the high of 2018 itself and the 50% retracement of the 2014/2020 bear trend.”
Although we look for the 1.4302/77 zone to cap at first for a fresh and potentially lengthy consolidation, we continue to look for a break in due course for a move to our raised objective (from December), seen starting at 1.4984 and stretching up to 1.5136.”
FXStreet reports that the UK-EU free trade agreement (FTA) is welcome, but does not provide a compelling reason to buy GBP now. Thus, economists at ANZ Bank anticipate some underperformance.
“Against the dollar, sterling is still 10% below its pre-2016 referendum level. Using OECD producer prices, it is estimated to be 8.5% undervalued vs USD. We think, given the immediate challenges facing the economy, a discount to fair value is justified.”
“Until greater economic certainty emerges, which it will do in time, sterling may underperform. We forecast that it will rise against the USD as part of a broad-based dollar sell-off, but anticipate that it can underperform on the crosses. The relatively favourable cyclical position of the Australasian economies, their better fiscal outlook, deepening APAC regional trade arrangements and diminished requirements for additional monetary easing across the region argues in favour of regional FX outperformance versus GBP.”
Reuters reports that sources familiar with its thinking said that the Bank of Japan is expected to slightly revise up its economic forecast for next fiscal year on hope the government's stimulus package will moderate the pain from state of emergency measures to combat COVID-19.
Having already extended last month a raft of measures to ease funding strains for firms hit by the coronavirus pandemic, the BOJ is expected to hold off on ramping up stimulus at the Jan. 20-21 policy meeting, the sources said.
The central bank, however, will likely warn of escalating risks from the new state of emergency measures that are set to cool consumption, they said.
In its last projections released in October, the BOJ expected the economy to expand 3.6% next fiscal year, following this year's estimated 5.5% contraction.
The central bank may slightly trim its forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March, reflecting the hit from renewed emergency measures, the sources said.
According to the report from the Eurostat, in November 2020, the seasonally adjusted industrial production rose by 2.5% in the euro area and by 2.3% in the EU, compared with October 2020. Economists had expected a 0.2% increase in the euro area. In October 2020, industrial production grew by 2.3% in the euro area and by 2.0% in the EU.
In November 2020 compared with November 2019, industrial production decreased by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU.
In the euro area in November 2020, compared with October 2020, production of capital goods rose by 7.0% and intermediate goods by 1.5%, while production of durable consumer goods fell by 1.2%, non durable consumer goods by 1.7% and energy by 3.9%.
In the EU, production of capital goods rose by 6.1% and intermediate goods by 1.4%, while production of durable consumer goods and non durable consumer goods fell by 1.1% and energy by 2.9%.
Among Member States, for which data are available, the highest increases were registered in Ireland (+52.8%), Greece (+6.3%) and Denmark (+5.3%). The largest decreases were observed in Portugal (-5.1%), Belgium (-3.5%) and Croatia (-2.6%).
Assumptions of underlying forecasts are still correct
Forecasts were based on lockdown measures until end of Q1
Some of the uncertainty has been cleared, such as Brexit, US election, vaccine
Start of the year is more positive than some would argue
We are monitoring exchange rate movements very carefully, but we do not target it
ECB will be 'extremely attentive' to exchange rate impact on prices
According to the report from the National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), in November 2020 the seasonally adjusted industrial production index decreased by 1.4% compared with the previous month. The change of the average of the last three months with respect to the previous three months was +2.1%..
The index measures the monthly evolution of the volume of industrial production (excluding construction). With effect from January 2018 the indices are calculated with reference to the base year 2015 using the Ateco 2007 classification (Italian edition of Nace Rev. 2).
The calendar adjusted industrial production index decreased by 4.2% compared with November 2019 (calendar working days being 21 versus 20 days in November 2019).
The unadjusted industrial production index decreased by 1.2% compared with November 2019.
CNBC reports that Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said that U.S. stocks and bond markets could possibly “take more of a breather” in the near term, after hitting record highs last week.
U.S. stock markets have had a bumper start to 2021, despite ongoing concerns about the coronavirus pandemic.
Hatzius shared his outlook for U.S. stocks looking ahead, and explained why market valuations might stop moving “relentlessly higher.”
A pause could come as result of a renewed focus on the Federal Reserve potentially tapering its stimulus program, and the back-up in long-term interest rates that’s currently underway, he told CNBC.
Despite a possible pullback in markets in the short term, Hatzius said Goldman Sachs was positive on U.S. stocks in the long term and believed they would continue to move higher.
“We still think it’s a friendly environment for risk assets, for equities and credit,” he said.
“We’re early in the business cycle, there’s still plenty of slack in the economy in the U.S. and even more so in other economies.”
He explained that inflation remained below target, and central banks and fiscal policy were still pretty focused on bringing economic activity back, which was “generally pretty positive for markets.”
FXStreet reports that economists at ANZ Bank see further gains in the yuan in the run-up to the Chinese New Year holidays in mid-February this year.
“Over the past few years, the Chinese yuan (CNY) has shown a tendency to appreciate at the start of the year and heading into the Chinese New Year holiday period.The main driver behind this move is increased exporter conversion activity. We expect this Chinese New Year effect to be evident again this year.”
“We could see USD/CNY testing the key 6.40 support level in the coming weeks if the exporter conversions come through as we expect. However, one limiting factor could be whether the authorities are comfortable with the level of the CFETS RMB Index moving further above the key 96 level.”
|06:00||Japan||Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y||December||8.6%||8.7%|
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar fell slightly against the euro and the yen. Traders ' confidence that the dollar will become cheaper is weakening. This is due to the growing doubts of analysts that the Federal Reserve System (Fed) will maintain the same high volume of monetary stimulus in the event of a significant improvement in the situation in the US economy.
Over the last two months of 2020, the ICE index, which tracks the dollar's performance against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona), fell by 5%, and traders mainly bet on further weakening of the dollar in 2021.
"Despite our bearish sentiment against the dollar last year, we now believe that the time has come to close the dollar's sell positions against the euro and lock in a profit," said George Saravelos, currency strategist at Deutsche Bank.
The likelihood of increased stimulus by the administration of President-elect Joe Biden, as well as rapid vaccination against COVID-19 in the United States, improves the prospects for the American economy.
"The acceleration in economic growth will help boost employment and return inflationary forces, which will reduce the pressure on the Fed to artificially keep rates low," said Markus Allenspach, an analyst at Julius Baer.
The pound is rising amid signals that the Bank of England does not intend to move to negative interest rates. The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, who spoke at the Scottish Chamber of Commerce, rejected the possibility of reducing the base rate to a negative level, noting that such a move "raises many questions."
According to the report from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), China's vehicle sales fell for a third consecutive year in 2020, but year-on-year sales rose for a ninth straight month in December.
China's auto sales fell 1.9% to 25.3 million vehicles last year from 2019.
Sales in the world's biggest auto market rose 6.4% in December from a year earlier to reach 2.83 million vehicles. But the pace of growth slowed sharply from a 12.6% year-on-year rise in November.
Passenger vehicle sales fell 6% for the full year of 2020, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) showed.
For commercial vehicles, which constitute around a quarter of the overall market, sales surged 19%, driven by government investment in infrastructure and as buyers upgraded to comply with tougher emissions rules.
Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in 2020 increased 11% from 2019 to 1.37 million units. NEVs include battery-powered electric, plug-in petrol-electric hybrid and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles.
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2219
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 5 is 45380 contracts (according to data from January, 12) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2000 (3276);
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.3694
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 5 is 10323 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4000 (1715);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 5 is 18916 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (2185);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.83 versus 1.87 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 12
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
According to the report from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), in December 2020 the selling prices in wholesale trade fell by 1.2% compared with December 2019. In November 2020 and in October 2020 the annual rates of change had been -1.7% and -1.9%, respectively. From November 2020 to December 2020 the index rose by 0.6%.
Destatis also reported that in 2020 the average index of selling prices in wholesale trade was 2.0% lower than the average index of 2019.
Reuters reports that French central bank said that the French economy probably contracted 4% in the final quarter of last year from the previous three months.
Bank of France said it was sticking with a previous estimate that the euro zone's second-biggest economy shrank 9% over the course of last year.
The central bank also estimated the economy was operating this month down 7% from pre-crisis levels, unchanged from December but up from -11% in November.
eFXdata reports that TD Research likes to fade GBP rallies on the crosses.
"The Brexit deal has reduced near-term GBP uncertainty, but this looks fully priced. Evidence suggests Investors have bought into the rebound story, but long positioning now seems stretched. GBP’s excess risk premium has all but disappeared from options markets with risk reversals reverting toward neutral. However, these have not validated the latest move in spot above 1.35, reflecting sterling’s otherwise-weak fundamental backdrop. We look to fade this recent GBP strength. With the USD broadly weak, however, we prefer to pursue this first on certain crosses," TD adds.
|Raw materials||Closed||Change, %|
|06:00 (GMT)||Japan||Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y||December||8%|
|09:00 (GMT)||Eurozone||ECB President Lagarde Speaks|
|10:00 (GMT)||Eurozone||Industrial production, (MoM)||November||2.1%||0.2%|
|10:00 (GMT)||Eurozone||Industrial Production (YoY)||November||-3.8%||-3.3%|
|13:30 (GMT)||U.S.||CPI, m/m||December||0.2%||0.4%|
|13:30 (GMT)||U.S.||CPI excluding food and energy, m/m||December||0.2%||0.1%|
|13:30 (GMT)||U.S.||CPI, Y/Y||December||1.2%||1.3%|
|13:30 (GMT)||U.S.||CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y||December||1.6%||1.6%|
|14:30 (GMT)||U.S.||FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks|
|15:30 (GMT)||U.S.||Crude Oil Inventories||January||-8.01||-2.72|
|18:00 (GMT)||U.S.||FOMC Member Brainard Speaks|
|19:00 (GMT)||U.S.||Federal budget||December||-145|
|19:00 (GMT)||U.S.||Fed's Beige Book|
|19:00 (GMT)||U.S.||FOMC Member Harker Speaks|
|20:00 (GMT)||U.S.||FOMC Member Clarida Speaks|
|21:45 (GMT)||New Zealand||Building Permits, m/m||November||8.8%|
|23:50 (GMT)||Japan||Core Machinery Orders||November||17.1%||-6.2%|
|23:50 (GMT)||Japan||Core Machinery Orders, y/y||November||2.8%||-15.4%|
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