Forex-novosti i prognoze od 11-04-2018

Major US stock indexes finished trading in negative territory, as tensions in relations between the United States and Russia over possible military actions against Syria plunged investors into risk aversion.

The focus of attention of market participants was also the protocol of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve. The document said that during the March meeting, the leaders of the Fed signaled more confidence in achieving a target inflation rate of 2% during the year and confirmed plans for a gradual increase in rates. "In the opinion of the leaders of the Fed, the economy will grow at a rapid pace or faster than sustainable levels in the next few years." In March, all participants agreed that the outlook for the economy has improved in recent months, "the report said. And although the Fed leaders are optimistic about the prospects for economic growth, the threat of trade wars is a significant cause for concern. According to the protocols, the "overwhelming majority" of the FRS leaders consider the probability of reciprocal trade measures on the part of other countries as a risk to the US economy.

In addition, according to the US Department of Labor, the consumer price index, reflecting what Americans paid for everything from housing to dental care, fell in March by 0.1% compared to a month earlier, the first decline since May 2017. The fall is entirely due to a temporary decline in gasoline prices. Without taking energy and food into account, consumer prices rose by 0.2%, indicating a continuation of the trend, within which sustained growth is observed. The cost of housing, medical care and nutrition increased. Economists did not expect a change in overall prices during the month and a 0.2% increase in base prices. The report says that inflation after it was restrained last year, is slowly growing again, and is gradually approaching the goal of the Fed. Over the past year, consumer prices rose by 2.4%, while base prices rose by 2.1%. This was the strongest annual increase for the year.

Most components of the DOW index recorded a decline (25 out of 30). Outsider were shares of The Boeing Company (BA, -2.16%). Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM, + 0.52%) was the leader of growth.

Almost all sectors of the S & P index finished trading in the red. The greatest decline was shown by the sector of conglomerates (-0.8%). The commodities sector grew most (+ 0.9%).

At closing:

Dow 24,189.45 -218.55 -0.90%

S&P 500 2,642.19 -14.68 -0.55%

Nasdaq 100 7,069.03 -25.28 -0.36%

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 428.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.5 million barrels last week, but are in the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.0 million barrels last week but are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels last week, but are in the lower half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 6.0 million barrels last week.

U.S. stock-index futures fell on Wednesday, amid growing concerns over a confrontation between the United States and Russia over military action in Syria.

Global Stocks:

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Caterpillar (CAT) initiated with a Buy at Buckingham Research; target $170

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) initiated with a Hold at HSBC Securities; target $111

General Electric (GE) target lowered to $12 at Cowen

Citigroup (C) upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC Securities; target raised to $85 from $82

The Consumer Price Index decreased 0.1 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in February, theU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

A decline in the gasoline index more than outweighed increases in the indexes for shelter, medical care, and food to result in the slight seasonally adjusted

decline in the all items index. The energy index fell sharply due mainly to the 4.9-percent decrease in the gasoline index. The index for food rose 0.1 percent over the month, with the indexes for food at home and food away from home both increasing.

Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and "smart!" You shouldn't be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it! @realDonaldTrump

Our relationship with Russia is worse now than it has ever been, and that includes the Cold War. There is no reason for this. Russia needs us to help with their economy, something that would be very easy to do, and we need all nations to work together. Stop the arms race? @realDonaldTrump

Construction output continued its recent decline in the three-month on three-month series, falling by 0.8% in February 2018.

The three-month on three-month decrease in construction output was driven predominantly by the continued decline in repair and maintenance work, which fell by 2.6% in February 2018.

Construction output also decreased in the month-on-month series, contracting by 1.6% in February 2018, stemming from a 9.4% decrease in infrastructure new work.

Compared with February 2017, construction output fell 3.0%; the biggest month-on-year fall since March 2013.

The total UK trade deficit (goods and services) widened by £0.4 billion to £6.4 billion in the three months to February 2018; excluding erratic commodities it widened by £1.0 billion to £7.5 billion.

The £0.4 billion widening of the total trade deficit was due mainly to a £2.1 billion fall in non-EU goods exports, partially offset by increases of £0.9 billion in EU goods and £0.4 billion in total services exports in the three months to February 2018.

Movements in goods exports were largely offset by imports, therefore there was little change in the goods deficit with EU or non-EU countries, which widened by £0.2 billion and narrowed by £0.1 billion respectively in the three months to February 2018.

In the three months to February 2018, the Index of Production decreased by 0.1% compared with the three months to November 2017, due to a fall of 8.6% in mining and quarrying, caused mainly by the shutdown of the Forties oil pipeline within December 2017.

In the three months to February 2018, manufacturing provided the largest upward contribution to total production with an increase of 0.6%.

In February 2018, total production was estimated to have increased by 0.1% compared with January 2018; energy supply provided the largest upward contribution, increasing by 3.7%.

In February 2018 compared with January 2018, manufacturing declined by 0.2%, the first time output has fallen since March 2017; and in February 2018 compared with February 2017, manufacturing increased by 2.5%.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2472 (2250)

$1.2456 (1393)

$1.2428 (235)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2374

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2329 (2816)

$1.2299 (3075)

$1.2265 (3862)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date May, 4 is 75851 contracts (according to data from April, 10) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2250 (4311);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4311 (2104)

$1.4289 (1691)

$1.4259 (935)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.4207

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.4157 (368)

$1.4137 (522)

$1.4112 (885)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 4 is 23043 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4400 (3202);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 4 is 23861 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3850 (2487);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.03 versus 1.03 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 10

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Announced tariffs cover around $50 bln of chinese exports, which we estimate will not have significant effect on chinese or global economy

• Certain technology-related manufacturers would likely be hit directly by latest proposed tariffs on 3 april

• Expects U.S & China will avoid significant escalation in trade dispute given detrimental impact additional restrictions would have on both economies

• Direct effect of U.S tariffs on China's exports & economy likely to underestimate full extent of overall impact as knock-on effects need to be assessed

Consumer prices in China were up just 2.1 percent on year in March, says rttnews.

That was well beneath expectations for 2.6 percent and down sharply from 2.9 percent in February.

The bureau also said that producer prices gained an annual 3.1 percent - also shy of forecasts for 3.3 percent and down from 3.7 percent in the previous month.

Very thankful for President Xi of China's kind words on tarrifs and automobile barriers...also, his enlightenment on intellectual property and technology transfers. We will make great progress together!