Forex-novosti i prognoze od 08-07-2019

Major US stock indexes fell moderately, as Apple (AAPL) and Boeing (BA) were under pressure, while expectations of an aggressive reduction in the Fed's interest rates weakened.

The value of Apple shares (AAPL) fell by more than 2% after Rosenblatt Securities analyst reported downgrading to “Sell” (“Sell”) from “Neutral” (“Neutral”), saying that the company would face with a “fundamental deterioration” in the next six to twelve months, as iPhone sales are disappointing, while sales of other Apple products are slowing.

Shares of Boeing (BA) lost 1.4% of the value under pressure from reports that the company lost an order for 50 Max 737 aircraft at a total cost of $ 5.9 billion from Flyadeal, Saudi Arabia’s low-cost airline, which instead chose Airbus A320 aircraft.

The unexpectedly strong June job data released on Friday forced traders to reconsider their expectations of an aggressive reduction in interest rates, although they still see the likelihood of a Fed rate cut at a meeting of July 30-31. Expectations to cut rates by 50 basis points dropped to 6% from about 20% a week ago, according to the FedWatch CME Group tool.

Several Fed officials are planning to speak this week, including its chairman, Jerome Powell, who investors hope will give more clues about the immediate prospects for monetary policy. Mr. Powell will speak three times this week, including on Wednesday and Thursday, when he presents a semi-annual report on monetary policy in Congress. In addition, on Wednesday will be published minutes of the June Fed meeting.

Most of the components of DOW finished trading in the red (20 of 30). Outsider were shares of Apple Inc. (AAPL; -2.12%). The growth leader was NIKE Inc. (NKE; + 1.83%).

Almost all sectors of the S & P recorded a decline. The industrial goods sector decreased the most (-0.9%). Without change, the utilities sector and the base materials sector completed their biddings.

At the time of closing:

Dow 26,806.14 -115.98 -0.43%

S & P 500 2,975.95 -14.46 -0.48%

Nasdaq 100 8,098.38 -63.41 -0.78%

The Conference Board reported on Monday its Employment Trends Index (ETI) declined to 109.51 in June from a downwardly revised 111.22 in May. 

According to the report, June’s decline was fueled by negative contributions from three of the eight components - Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get,” Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, and Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now.

Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board noted that he interpreted this month’s large decline in the ETI with caution. "With the U.S. economy slowing a little, but still projected to remain above its 2 percent long-term trend, we expect job growth to remain strong enough to continue tightening the labor market and draw more people off the sidelines,” he said.

Analysts at BNP Paribas note that China’s economic growth continues to slow.

• “Activity rebounded in March 2019 but weakened again afterwards. The recent flare-up in trade tensions with the US has again darkened export prospects.
• The central bank is easing liquidity and credit conditions, though the reduction in financial-instability risks via regulatory tightening should remain a priority. Fiscal policy has also turned expansionary through increased infrastructure spending and a rising number of household/corporate tax cuts.
• In the short term, exports and private domestic investment should continue to decelerate. Tax measures should support consumer spending.”

• EU commission decision to stop debt procedure against Italy was a good decision

U.S. stock-index futures fell moderately on Monday as lowered expectations of a 50-basis points Fed rate cut after Friday's strong employment report continued to support partial profit-taking by investors at near record highs. 

Global Stocks:

Analysts at BNP Paribas think that the U.S. growth picked-up by early 19 but this was partly due to one-off factors (inventories) as the trend in private domestic demand is more subdued.

• “The housing market is softening, corporate investment should slow, as well as exports. Core inflation remains well under control and has eased a bit.
• Regarding the more cautious message delivered by the Fed’s president. J. Powell (about trade tensions), we believe the Fed Funds target rate will be cut by 2 quarter points in Q3, coming back to 1.75-2%."

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

• It is important to continue with structural efforts in 2020 after improvement this year
• Italy's personal income tax should be cut
• Direct taxes to be lowered but offset by indirect taxes
• 2020 budget to accord with EU fiscal rules

American Express (AXP) resumed with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; target $142

Apple (AAPL) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Rosenblatt; target $150

Verizon (VZ) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup; target $62

Stefane Marion, an analyst at National Bank of Canada (NBC), suggests that the U.S. June employment report depicted a resilient economy that continues to generate good job creation.

• “The jobless rate may have increased a bit during the month, but we are not concerned about that given that unemployment is increasingly frictional, i.e., people in the process of moving from one job to another.
• Case in point, the share of unemployed people that left their job voluntarily surged to 14.7% in June, a two-decade high.
• Such a development does not argue for an aggressive path of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.”

ANZ analysts note that global manufacturing has been under pressure for a while now as slowing global trade (on the back of the U.S.-China trade woes and waning US fiscal stimulus) has weighed on demand.

• “While New Zealand’s export commodity prices have held up, our ex-food manufacturing sector has slowed alongside the wider domestic economy, suggesting New Zealand’s experience may not be so different. Indeed, last week’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion suggests slowing manufacturing activity (and the wider economy for that matter) has persisted into Q2, and that this may now be leading to reduced headcount in the sector – and hence a possible (but likely small, so far) spillover into household incomes. This week brings a scattering of monthly data releases, with a few partial Q2 CPI indicators (June food prices, rents, and our Monthly Inflation Gauge), our Truckometer, cards transactions (which isn’t very useful data), the June PMI and possibly REINZ housing market data.”

Analysts at TD Securities note that China’s FX reserves rose to $3.11tn at the end of June from 3.110tn previously.

“We wouldn’t read too much into the rise in reserves in June. The bulk of the $18.23bn increase was according to our calculations, due to valuation effects, with only $0.51bn attributable to an actual increase in reserves. China’s FX reserves valuation was boosted by a weaker USD over the month, with for example the EUR gaining 1.83%.”

Deutsche Bank's analysts note that the May consumer credit in the U.S. is the only data on Monday and away from that euro-area finance ministers gather in Brussels.

• “Tuesday: The focus will likely be on the Fedspeak with Bullard and Bostic due to speak, while Quarles is due to make the keynote address on stress testing at a conference. Powell will also make introductory comments at said conference. Away from that, the only data of note is the June NFIB small business optimism reading and May JOLTS report in the US. Elsewhere, the ECB’s Visco and Lane are due to speak. Euro-area finance ministers will continue their meetings in Brussels.
• Wednesday: The big focus will be Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on monetary policy and the state of the US economy. Late evening we’ll also get the FOMC minutes from the June meeting. As for data, June CPI and PPI in China will be out early morning while the highlights in Europe include May industrial production readings from France and the UK along with May GDP and trade data in the latter. May wholesale inventories data in the US is also due to be released. Other events to note include a speech from the BoE’s Tenreyro and the BoC monetary policy meeting.
• Thursday: Fed Chair Powell will testify to the Senate Banking Committee while other scheduled Fed speakers include Williams, Bostic, Barkin, Quarles and Kashkari. The data highlight is the June CPI report in the US while final June CPI revisions will be made in Germany and France. Jobless claims data will also be out in the US. Meanwhile, the BoE will publish the latest financial stability report, ECB will release the latest meeting minutes and the OPEC oil market report will be released.
• Friday: Data highlights include June trade data in China and June PPI in the US. We’ll also get May industrial production for the euro area and May industrial production in Japan. The ECB’s Visco is also due to speak while over at the BoE Carney and Vlieghe are due to speak.”

• Says ECB  could restart QE if needed

TD Securities' analysts note that the German industrial production (IP) was just a touch below consensus at +0.3% m/m in May, but much stronger than what was suggested by last week's poor factory orders report.

• “Coming on the back of the -2.0% fall in April, IP is still on track for a -1.4% q/q contraction in Q2, which would be its weakest quarter since Q4 2012.”

The EU wants to have an agreed European candidate to replace Christine Lagarde at the helm of the International Monetary Fund, a senior EU official said on Monday.

“There is a strong urge among European countries to come with one candidate,” the official said on condition of anonymity before a meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Monday.

The official said the president of the Eurogroup, Mario Centeno, was among those working on this, together with Finland, which currently holds the EU’s rotating presidency.

One official said some EU countries wanted a candidate somebody from an EU member state, an option that could rule out British candidates, as Britain is due to leave the EU at the end of October.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney has been mentioned in media reports as one of Europe’s possible candidates.

According to Chris Turner, global head of strategy at ING, Friday’s better than expected US jobs data has cemented the view that a 25 basis point cut will be sufficient insurance from the Fed at its 31 July meeting. 

“This will have disappointed some in the market looking for a more aggressive move and has served to flatten the US 2-10 year yield curve by close to 15bp over the last fortnight. This leaves risk assets feeling slightly short-changed and open to pockets of vulnerability. Beyond US-China trade, attention has now turned to trade tensions between Japan and Korea, where Japan has imposed restrictions on semiconductor exports to Korea, citing national security concerns - sounds familiar. Expect the dollar to consolidate further this week, with the next big input coming on Wednesday, when Fed Chair Powell testifies to the House and FOMC minutes are released. DXY may struggle to get past 97.70 resistance, though.” 

Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, suggested a break below 0.6957 could open the door to a visit of 0.6941.

“Last week AUD/USD failed at its current July high at .7048 and dropped back to the current July low at .6957. For now it underpins but failure there on a daily chart closing basis would put the late May high at .6941 back on the cards. Below it lies the late May low at .6899. Short-term downside pressure should be maintained while the June and current July highs at .7022/48 cap. Above it sits the late April peak at .7069. Above it resistance can be spotted at the .7207 February high”.

China’s passenger-car sales showed signs of recovery from a historic rut as dealers offered discounts to clear inventory before new emissions rules kicked in.

Retail sales of sedans, sport utility vehicles, minivans and multipurpose vehicles rose 4.9% y/y to 1.8 million units in June, according to preliminary numbers from the China Passenger Car Association. That’s the first increase since May 2018.

The report offers some hope for automakers and dealers struggling with the first slump in demand in a generation, caused by slowing economic growth, rising trade tensions and stricter emissions rules. 

While the June data is “inspiring,” it’s inflated by discounting and it won’t be easy for the market to keep up the growth, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of PCA, told.

Dealers slashed prices by as much as 50% in recent weeks, according to local media reports, to clear their inventory of cars that don’t meet new stricter emission standards. 18 provinces and regions -- which together account for most of China’s car sales -- require vehicles to meet the new criteria as of July 1.

The sentix economic index for Euroland falls to its lowest level since November 2014. Despite the supposed calm on the stock markets and the resumption of customs talks between the USA and China, the current situation and expectations are falling.

The Sentix research group said its investor sentiment index for the euro zone fell to -5.8 in July, down from -3.3 the month before, and well short of the 0.3 analysts had forecast. That was the lowest reading since November 2014.

In Germany, the overall index even fell to its lowest level since November 2009. A recession in Germany seems inevitable. A sub-index for Germany plunged to -4.8 from last month's -0.7, its lowest in almost a decade.

Investors are thus not following the positive signals of the stock market, and there is no belief in a quick settlement in the trade dispute. Twitter reports alone will no longer lure investors around the world out of their reserves.

Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany, offered his take on Monday's German industrial production figures and said that the data sent tentative signs of life in May. The rebound in industrial production suggested that the economy is not falling off a cliff, though the relief is too feeble to justify any optimism.

“The fact that German industry has not fallen off a cliff unfortunately does not mean that any rebound is in the cards in the near term. The order book deflation, as well as inventory build-up, is a strong warning against too much optimism. Even worse, today’s industrial data suggests that, at least for the second quarter, the German economy is running out of powerful growth engines. For the ECB, today’s data will not yet flip the coin on whether to deliver a pre-emptive rate cut at the July meeting. The data was not bad enough to panic but definitely not good enough to lean back and enjoy the summer.”

British companies are more worried about Brexit than at any time since the 2016 referendum decision to leave the EU and they plan to reduce investment and hiring, a survey of chief financial officers showed on Monday.

The survey conducted by Deloitte, a financial advisory firm, found that 83% of the CFOs believed that leaving the EU would hurt Britain's long-term business environment. Only 4% said it was a good time to take on more balance sheet risk, the lowest percentage since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 which helped trigger the financial crisis.

Almost two thirds of the CFOs surveyed by Deloitte expected to cut hiring in the next three years as a result of Brexit and 47% expected to reduce capital spending.

Separately on Monday, the Confederation of British Industry, an employers group, said it expected business investment would fall by 1.3% in 2019, the biggest decline since the financial crisis, even if Britain manages to avoid a no-deal Brexit.

Analysts at ING bank note that China's most recent foreign reserves show net inflows. 

Foreign reserves on the rise

China's foreign reserves have only edged down slightly in one month this year (April). In June, reserves increased by another US$18.23 billion to US$3119.23 billion, the largest monthly increase this year.

Inflows have been stronger than outflows

China has been very closely monitoring capital outflow transactions, which helps explain the low net outflows in 2019. But this is only one side of the story. Another is the weak dollar: This increases the USD holdings of other currencies and therefore raises the value of China's foreign reserves. This could be increased further as China has shifted to greater non-USD holdings in its FX reserves this year. A more important factor is the inclusion of China assets in global benchmark indices.”

According to the monthly index of business activity (MIBA), GDP is expected to increase by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2019 (third estimate, revised downwards by 0.1 percentage point).

In the manufacturing industry, the business sentiment indicator stood at 95 in June, after 99 in May.

• In June, industrial production declined significantly, in particular in the automobile, rubber and plastic and IT and electronic equipment sectors. The pharmaceutical and other transport equipment manufacturing sectors remained buoyant.

• Order books fell slightly. 

• Business leaders expect industrial production to recover in July in all sectors.

In services, the business sentiment indicator stood at 100 in June, like in May.

• Subsequently to a slowdown in demand, service sector activity rose moderately. It remained strong in the transport, publishing and IT sectors and contracted in the management, legal and accounting sectors, as well as in the automobile repair sector.

• Business leaders expect service sector activity to accelerate in July.

In construction, the business sentiment indicator stood at 104 in June, after 105 in May.

• Due to unfavourable weather conditions, construction sector activity waned, particularly in structural works.

• Order books remained at high levels, and the prices of quotes rose.

• In July, business leaders expect construction sector activity to pick up.

Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, suggested the pair could re-test the 1.1330/48 area as long as the 1.1181/76 band underpins.

“EUR/USD is trading back below the 55 day moving average at 1.1232 and nears the March and mid-June lows at 1.1181/76. While this area underpins on a daily chart closing basis, the 200 day moving average and early June high at 1.1330/48 will remain in sight. Above the 1.1412 June high we look for a test of the 1.1570 2019 high. Slightly longer term we target 1.1815/54, the highs from June and September 2018”.

François Villeroy de Galhau, France’s central bank governor and a member of the Governing Council at the ECB, hasn’t ruled out more stimulus for the euro zone coming as early as this summer, ahead of Christine Lagarde’s installment as the new president of the European Central Bank (ECB).

“If we speak about monetary policy we have several Governing Councils to come, in the next month, including with Mario Draghi. And if and when needed, there must be no doubt about our determination to act and our capacity to act,” he told.

“We look at the markets, but we are not market dependent, we are data dependent. And if we look at the economic signals there is a continuing slowdown but there also significant wage increases ... significant job creation on both sides of the Atlantic. So let us wait for our next Governing Council, and there are several to come, to assess the data and then to decide.”

When asked about the likelihood that more stimulus would be announced in December, when the central bank releases new economic projections, he reiterated there were many meetings before then.

In May 2019, production in industry was up by 0.3% on the previous month on a price, seasonally and calendar adjusted basis according to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). Economists had expected a 0.4% increase. In April 2019, the corrected figure shows a decrease of 2.0% (primary -1.9%) from March 2019.

In May 2019, production in industry excluding energy and construction was up by 0.9%. Within industry, the production of intermediate goods decreased by 0.5%. While the production of capital goods showed an increase by 2.0% and the production of consumer goods by 1.1%. Outside industry, energy production was down by 2.2% in May 2019 and the production in construction decreased by 2.4%.

According to the provisional data from Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), Germany exported goods to the value of 113.9 billion euros and imported goods to the value of 93.4 billion euros in May 2019. Destatis also reports that German exports increased by 4.5% and imports by 4.9% in May 2019 year on year. After calendar and seasonal adjustment, exports were up 1.1% compared April 2019, while imports were down 0.5%.

The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 20.6 billion euros in May 2019. In May 2018, the surplus amounted to +20.0 billion euros. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 18.7 billion euros in May 2019.

In May 2019, Germany exported goods to the value of 66.1 billion euros to the Member States of the European Union (EU), while it imported goods to the value of 54.2 billion euros from those countries. Compared with May 2018, exports to EU countries increased by 0.6%, and imports from those countries by 4.7%. Goods to the value of 42.3 billion euros (+3.8%) were exported to the Euro area countries in May 2019, while the value of the goods imported from those countries was 35.8 billion euros (+8.7%). In May 2019, goods to the value of 23.8 billion euros (-4.8%) were exported to EU countries not belonging to the Euro area, while the value of the goods imported from those countries was 18.4 billion euros (-2.3%).

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1392 (2214)

$1.1361 (946)

$1.1337 (899)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1225

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1199 (3325)

$1.1166 (2374)

$1.1129 (3256)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date August, 9 is 49366 contracts (according to data from July, 5) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1300 (3391);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2698 (1468)

$1.2667 (323)

$1.2642 (267)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2526

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2474 (1390)

$1.2444 (2253)

$1.2409 (2378)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 9 is 12961 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (2054);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 9 is 13042 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2450 (2378);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.00 versus 0.93 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 5

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.