Forex-novosti i prognoze od 08-01-2021

According to ActionForex, analysts at RBC Financial Group note that the 63k drop in Canada's employment in December was the first decline since the spring, albeit only a fraction of the 3 million pullback over March and April last year. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged up to 8.6% from 8.5% and the labour force participation rate decresed.

"The data highlight what is an increasingly bifurcated economic backdrop, with resurgence of virus cases and containment measures dramatically curtailing activity in the hospitality/travel sectors, while other industries have continued to broadly improve."

"The drop in employment was led by pullbacks in accommodation & food services (-57k), information, culture, and recreation (-19k), and “other” services (-31k). Outside of those three service-sector industries, employment rose 44k in December – led by a 15k increase in manufacturing jobs. The accommodation & food services subsector alone now accounts for half of the entire 636k shortfall in jobs relative to pre-shock February 2020 levels."

"Job losses in December were, as has been the case throughout the entire COVID-shock, concentrated among those at the low end of the wage scale. That, of course, is not a good thing, but government income supports (expanded EI payments, and the new CRB program) continue to provide a significant income offset for lower-income individuals losing out on work."

"With virus spread remaining at alarming levels in much of Canada, and containment measures being extended and expanded, both the labour market and broader economic recovery appear to have stalled. We expect the first quarter of 2021 will be a challenging one for the Canadian economy, with no growth in GDP expected. As vaccinations become more broadly distributed we look for the economy to regain its momentum leading to a recovery in job creation."

FXStreet notes that the US has lost 140,000 jobs in December. Despite a larger decline in jobs than expected, FX markets shrugged it off. A weaker jobs print reinforces the need and expectation for additional fiscal support. However, economists at TD Securities think currency markets are a bit sanguine about Treasury supply and seemingly nonchalance of Fed officials on a backup in rates and expect slight USD strength.

“Payrolls were -140K in December, weaker than the +50K consensus; we had forecast -50K... The unemployment rate held at 6.7%, below the 6.8% consensus.”

“We expect the double-dip pattern to continue into the new year as the pandemic remains rampant. We expect recovery to resume within a few months, with the help of vaccines and fiscal stimulus, although we also expect the labor market to show significant net weakening for several years.”

“We think the implication of a weaker jobs print just reinforces the need for additional fiscal support, which we expect to be passed sometime this quarter. This has us a bit more neutral on the USD on a tactical horizon as we think that the backup in US rates has further to go as supply gets priced-in. This puts USD shorts potentially at risk. We are more focused on marginal USD strength; 1.2210 in EUR/USD and 104.50 in USD/JPY.”  

The Commerce Department announced on Friday the U.S. wholesale inventories were flat m-o-m in November, slightly better than the preliminary estimate of a 0.1 percent m-o-m drop.

Economists had forecast the reading to stay unrevised at -0.1 percent m-o-m.

In October, wholesale inventories surged 1.3 percent m-o-m.

According to the report, durable goods inventories rose 0.9 percent m-o-m in November, while stocks of nondurable goods fell 12 percent m-o-m.

In y-o-y terms, wholesale inventories declined 2.1 percent in November.

FXStreet notes that the Canadian employment stumbles into year-end with a 63K decline in December. Unsurprisingly, the CAD ignored the data. Economists at TD Securities expect the loonie to remain on good behavior for now but they think the market might be a tad complacent on development in US rates. 

“The labour market recovery stumbled into year-end with total employment falling by 63K in December to unwind the previous month's increase as a more aggressive set of public health restrictions weighed (primarily) on the service sector.” 

“Details were not quite as downbeat as the headline print might suggest, with job losses driven by part-time workers (-99K) with an offsetting (36K) rise in full-time employment, and hours worked fell by just 0.3% MoM. The unemployment rate edged higher to 8.6% (from 8.5%) after a 0.2pp decline in the participation rate.”

“Currency markets have had a loose relationship with the data since the pandemic began, so it is no surprise that the CAD barely budged on a negative surprise. That said, a slightly better composition with regards to the full-time gain keeps the CAD in our good graces for now.” 

“The 1.26/1.27 range in USDCAD should remain intact. Going forward, however, we are concerned that the grind higher in US rates may have more to go. Our sense is that USD bears might be a bit complacent on this.”

U.S. stock-index futures rose on Friday, as hopes of more economic stimulus in the U.S. heightened following the release of a dire jobs report for December.

Global Stocks:

FXStreet notes that above 3785, S&P 500 reasserts its core bull trend and the Credit Suisse analyst team looks for strength to extend to the core target and “measured triangle objective” at 3900.

“The S&P 500 Index has pushed strongly higher after neutralizing its bearish ‘reversal day’, clearing with ease the cluster of Fibonacci resistances at 3765/85. This should clear the way for strength to extend directly further with resistance seen next at 3812 ahead of 3825/32 and eventually the ‘measured triangle objective’ at 3900.” 

“With a cluster of further Fibonacci projection resistances seen at 3900 and stretching up to 3925/30, we maintain our call to look for a cap here and a fresh and likely we think more protracted consolidation phase. Should strength instead directly extend, we see resistance next at 4000, then 4070/75.” 

Statistics Canada reported on Friday that the number of employed people decreased by 62,600 m-o-m in December (or -0.3 percent m-o-m) after an unrevised gain of 62,100 m-o-m in the previous month. This was the first decrease in Canada’s employment since April.

Economists had forecast a drop of 27,500 m-o-m.

Meanwhile, Canada's unemployment rate rose to 8.6 percent in December from 8.5 percent in November, matching economists’ forecast for 8.6 percent.

According to the report, full-time employment increased by 36,500 (or +0.2 percent m-o-m) in December, while part-time jobs plunged by 99,000 (or -2.9 percent m-o-m).

In December, the number of public sector employees rose by 14,600 (or +0.4 percent m-o-m), while the number of private sector employees dropped by 15,200 (or -0.1 percent m-o-m) and the number of self-employed tumbled by 62,000 (or -2.2 percent m-o-m) last month.

Sector-wise, employment increased in the goods-producing sector (+0.3 percent m-o-m) but fell in the service-producing business (-0.5 percent m-o-m; the first decline in the sector since April).

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) resumed with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; target $42

Chevron (CVX) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler; target raised to $113

The U.S. Labor Department announced on Friday that nonfarm payrolls fell by 140,000 in December after an upwardly revised 336,000 advance in the prior month (originally a gain of 245,000), reflecting the recent surge in coronavirus cases and efforts to contain the pandemic. This was the first decline in employment since the U.S. job market started to recover in May.

According to the report, employment declines in leisure and hospitality (-498,000 jobs), private education (-63,000), and government (-45,000) were partially offset by gains in professional and business services (+161,000), retail trade (+121,000), construction (+51,000), and transportation and warehousing (+47,000). The unemployment rate stood at 6.7 percent in December, unchanged from November.

Economists had forecast the nonfarm payrolls to increase by 71,000 and the jobless rate to edge up to 6.8 percent.

The labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 61.5 percent, while hourly earnings for private-sector workers rose 0.8 percent m-o-m (or $0.23) to $ $29.81, following an unrevised 0.3 percent m-o-m advance in November. Economists had forecast the average hourly earnings to increase 0.2 percent m-o-m in December. Over the year, average hourly earnings surged by 5.1 percent in December, following an unrevised 4.4 percent rise in November.

The average workweek decreased by 0.1 hour to 34.7 hours in December, being below economists' forecast for 34.8 hours.

FXStreet reports that according to economists at MUFG Bank, the collapse in the U.S. yields and the better prospects for global growth as COVID-19 vaccines are rolled out is likely to mean further AUD gains this year after a 10% gain last year. During 2020 the Australian dollar strengthened against the US dollar from 0.7017 to 0.7714.

“Central banks are likely to be very reluctant to stand out by portraying a scenario of much earlier removals of easy monetary stances. Hence, growth recoveries initially will prove important as that will ultimately dictate longer-term yields as market expectations shift. The starting point already suggests an uphill battle for the RBA to convince the markets that it will be maintaining loose monetary policy for as long as other G10 countries." 

“Based on consensus growth estimates, real GDP will surpass the pre-covid GDP level in Q3 2021. The output gap projection in Australia doesn’t warrant continued aggressive RBA easing and will only persist to try and slow AUD strength – but the Australian dollar is still set to advance this year.”

USD traded flat and mixed against its major rivals in the European session on Fridays, as markets were anticipating the release of the official U.S. jobs report for December (due at 13:30 GMT), which is expected to provide clues on the amount of fiscal stimulus needed to bolster the coronavirus-hit economy.

The U.S. currency rose against EUR, fell against GBP, AUD and CHF, and changed marginally against JPY, NZD and CAD. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, inched up 0.1% to 89.90.

Economists anticipate the U.S. employers to have added only 71,000 jobs last month, down from 245,000 in November, as coronavirus cases surged and tighter restrictions were imposed. The unemployment rate is forecast to have edged up to 6.8% in December from 6.7% in the previous month.

It is widely expected that the administration of Joe Biden and a Democratic-controlled Congress will increase spending on infrastructure projects and approve other fiscal measures to foster the recovery of the U.S. economy. Before the crucial Senate runoffs in Georgia, Biden stated that $2,000 stimulus checks would be delivered to Americans if the Democrats won these elections.

Moderna’s vaccine has become the third approved for use in the UK.

FXStreet reports that Senior Economist at UOB Group Alvin Liew reviewed the latest publication of the FOMC Minutes of the December meeting.

“The minutes of the 15-16 Dec 2020 FOMC meeting showed that Fed officials unanimously agreeing to keep the pace of asset purchases unchanged, and that ‘nearly all’ preferred to keep the current mix of assets bought intact with some open to ‘future adjustments’ if needed.”

“The unexpected ‘Blue Wave’ has led the markets to reposition for bigger fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending as well as tax changes (tax cuts for households while tax increase for corporates and wealthy individuals).”

“We now price in a lower probability (40%) for the Fed to provide more monetary accommodation. If the Fed were to ease, it will still do so from its existing tool kits, and the first in line will still be the asset purchase program. We continue to hold the view that the Fed will keep policy rates at the current 0.0-0.25% region at least until 2023 and will not want to push rates beyond zero, into negative territory.”

Micron Technology (MU) reported Q1 FY 2021 earnings of $0.78 per share (versus $0.48 per share in Q1 FY 2020), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.69 per share.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $5.773 bln (+12.2% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $5.662 bln.

The company also issued upside guidance for Q2 FY 2021, projecting EPS of $0.68-$0.82 versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.64 and revenues of $5.6-$6.0 bln versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $5.52 bln.

MU rose to $82.81 (+4.68%) in pre-market trading.

FXStreet notes that the U.S. stocks rallied a day after violence rocked the US Capitol, with investors firmly focused on Democrats' win of the Senate after the elections in Georgia, shrugging off the storming of the Capitol by supporters of President Donald Trump. Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist at Morgan Stanley, explains why a Democrat sweep of Congress and the White House suggests more reflation and rotation in portfolios.

“We're constructive for 2021 and expect solid returns. But a key risk to this story would be that we're underestimating the risks of a new COVID-19 variant or a slow vaccination program and that policymakers don't meet these challenges with further support.”

“We think there's a good chance that the new Congress will push for up to $1 T in additional economic support, including $2000 direct payments, even if the economy doesn't go through a new additional deterioration. That would provide further support to the recovery, and importantly, drive more confidence that inflation can rise from currently depressed levels. We think US growth and inflation will both exceed expectations this year, and our investment preferences are heavily skewed towards areas of the market that would benefit if this came to pass.”

“There's a theory that markets are efficient and immediately move to price in all new available information. But in this case, I really don't think that holds. This was a genuine surprise, and even active political observers saw these races as extremely close.”

“We think the Georgia election results reduce one downside risk to the market and raise the chances for higher growth and higher inflation in 2021. And what are the risks? Higher growth and inflation should, ultimately, drive longer-run interest rates higher, and drive a shift in leadership between assets that benefit from this, and those that do not. We like financials, as an inexpensive sector that offers some diversification against a higher interest rate scenario, and we remain underweight government bonds.”

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group note that a move above 6.4950 in USD/CNH can open the door to the extra upside in the next weeks.

24-hour view: “Yesterday, we highlighted that ‘the combination of oversold conditions and waning momentum suggest that the current movement is part of a consolidation phase’. Our view was incorrect as USD soared to 6.4773 before closing on a firm note at 6.4730 (+0.32%). Further USD strength is not ruled out but the rapid rise appears to be running ahead of itself and any advance is likely limited to a test of 6.4820.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “USD rebounded to a high of 6.4773 yesterday and while our ‘strong resistance’ level at 6.4950 is still intact, downward momentum has waned and the prospect for USD to move below 6.4000 has diminished. In order to rejuvenate the flagging momentum, USD has to move and stay below 6.4450 within these 1 to 2 days or a break of 6.4950 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate the current weakness has run its course.”

FXStreet notes that economists expect Canada to report a loss of jobs after seven months of gains. A disappointing report, alongside US payrolls, could be the catalyst to trigger a pare back in stretched CAD positioning. Analysts at TD Securities look to 1.28 in USD/CAD as a key resistance marker to accelerate the upside.

“We forecast -125K jobs lost in December, which would match the largest single-month decline before COVID-19 but is far less severe than the historic job losses in March/April 2020.” 

“The jobs report comes at an interesting juncture for USD bears. The backup in US fixed income yields has caused some concern that the recent consolidative tone in the broad USD might be the start of a corrective bounce higher. A larger disappointment in this jobs report versus consensus could exacerbate that concern and stretched position.” 

“This number will also have to compete for attention with US payrolls, where we also forecast a negative number. Confirmation of both could see the CAD further pare back its gains in recent weeks. 1.28 will be the key resistance marker for USD/CAD; if broken, CAD longs could be more significantly pared back.”

FXStreet reports that economists at MUFG Bank discuss the yuan outlook.

“First, on the COVID-19 vaccination front, China's State Council announced the vaccination is fully covered by the government’s medical insurance and showed it has begun in Beijing and Shang Dong. Second, on the US and China trade talk front, China's foreign minister on prime time national TV signalled to President-elect Biden that China was ready for negotiations, which strengthened market's appetite for risk. Third, the EU finally agreed to a cooperative investment program with China in principle; the countries will have to work out the finer details of the agreement. The progress strengthened the ‘Silk Road’ and CNY internationalization theme. Overall, these three factors are expected to support the CNY in January, and potentially further ahead.”

“The CNY spot level may get another chance to rally just before China releases the 4th-quarter GDP on January 18. The consensus forecast is for 2020’s real GPD growth to come in between 1.8% and 2.0% YoY; thus, the 4th-quarter GDP growth rate must have been between 5.9% and 6.7%.”

According to the report from Istat, in November 2020, after the substantial stability of October, the number of employed persons grew again; an increase was also recorded for inactive people, which had been decreasing since May; on the other hand the drop among unemployed people was getting more pronounced.

On a monthly basis, the increase of employment (+0.3%, +63 thousand) concerned both genders and all age classes, with the exception of people aged 25-34. Overall, the employment rate rose at 58.3%.

In the last month, the sharp decline of unemployed people (-7.0%, -168 thousand) is generalized for both genders and all ages. The unemployment rate decreased to 8.9% (-0.6 p.p.) and the youth rate to 29.5% (-0.4 p.p.).

In the period September-November 2020, with respect to the previous quarter, employment grew (+0.6%, +127 thousand) for both genders.

In the last three months, a decline was registered in the number of unemployed persons (-2.8%, -67 thousand) and inactive people aged 15-64 years (-0.8%, -117 thousand).

Compared to November 2019, employment showed a decrease in terms of figures (-1.7%, -390 thousand) and rate (-0.8 percentage points).

According to the report from Eurostat, in November 2020, the euro area seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 8.3%, down from 8.4% in October 2020 and up from 7.4% in November 2019. Economists had expected an increase to 8.5%. The EU unemployment rate was 7.5% in November 2020, down from 7.6% in October 2020 and up from 6.6% in November 2019.

Eurostat estimates that 15.933 million men and women in the EU, of whom 13.609 million in the euro area, were unemployed in November 2020. Compared with October 2020, the number of persons unemployed decreased by 222 000 in the EU and by 172 000 in the euro area. Compared with November 2019, unemployment rose by 1.795 million in the EU and by 1.425 million in the euro area.

In November 2020, 3.171 million young persons (under 25) were unemployed in the EU, of whom 2.629 million were in the euro area. In November 2020, the youth unemployment rate was 17.7% in the EU and 18.4% in the euro area, up from 17.5% and 18.0% respectively in the previous month. Compared with October 2020, youth unemployment increased by 51 000 in the EU and by 64 000 in the euro area. Compared with November 2019, youth unemployment increased by 456 000 in the EU and by 398 000 in the euro area.

FXStreet reports that economists at MUFG Bank expects the USD/JPY to nosedive below the 100.00 mark in the coming months.

“We expect the yen to strengthen by about 5% versus the US dollar this year, breaking below the 100-level for the first time since 2016 and to levels last recorded in 2013.” 

“The cabinet approval fell to negative in December. With a general election required by October, his survival may be in doubt and increased political uncertainty would cloud the outlook and we believe help support the JPY. A clear policy outlook that shows a strategy consistent with fighting deflation is required to diminish risks of real yields rising. Increased political uncertainty coupled with the collapse in global yields will ensure JPY strength certainly against the dollar and probably against some of the other core G10 currencies with very low yields.”

eFXdata reports that Credit Suisse discusses EURGBP technical outlook. 

"Whilst there remains the potential we may be seeing the construction of the “right shoulder” to a larger top, the immediate prospect remains seen for further sideways ranging. Near -term resistance moves to .9096, above which can see strength extend to .9158, then back to what we see as tougher resistance at .9213/30, which we continue to look to cap. Support seen at .8974, then .8931/29. Below this latter area is needed to clear the way for a retest of medium -term support at .8871/61," CS adds.

FXStreet reports that economists at MUFG Bank now expect the Bank of England (BoE) to cut rates into negative territory at its next meeting on February 4. GBP will therefore under-perform this year.

“The national lockdown announced on January 4 will ensure a double-dip recession. MUFG forecasts -3.8% GDP in Q4 and -2.7% in Q1 2021. Assuming the current lockdown serves to alleviate capacity pressures on hospitals and vaccination roll-outs accelerate sharply, the hit to the economy in Q4 and Q1 can reverse quickly.”

“The additional hit to GDP from this latest more infectious COVID-19 wave will we believe result in a rate cut from the BoE in February. We now expect the BoE to lower the key policy rate into negative territory in February based on the increased severity of covid. GBP underperformed in 2020 and we expect that to continue in the first quarter. Assuming successful roll-outs of vaccines, GBP can then recover from Q2 onwards.”

According to the report from the Halifax Bank of Scotland, on a monthly basis, house prices in December were 0.2% higher than in November. Economists had expected a 0.5% increase.

In the latest quarter (October to December) house prices were 2.6%, higher than in the preceding three months (July to September).

House prices in December were 6.0% higher than in the same month a year earlier.

Russell Galley, Managing Director, Halifax, said: “Average house prices rose again in December, stretching the current run of continuous gains to six months. However, the monthly rise of 0.2% was the lowest seen during this period and significantly down on the 1.0% increase in November. The average house price was therefore little changed, but nonetheless still reached a fresh record of £253,374. 2020 was a tale of two distinct halves for the housing market. Following a strong start, the first half was dominated by the restrictions on movement due to COVID-19, and prices were subsequently down 0.5% at mid-year as the market effectively ground to a halt. However, when the market reopened, prices soared as a result of pent-up demand, a desire amongst buyers for greater space and the time-limited incentive of the stamp duty holiday. All this left average prices sitting some 6.0% higher at the end of 2020 when compared to December 2019, a notably strong performance given the anticipated impact of the pandemic earlier in the year". 

“In the near-term, and with mortgage approvals still sitting at a 13-year high, there may be enough residual strength in the market to sustain prices up to the deadline for the stamp duty holiday and the scaling back of Help to Buy at the end of March. However, with the pace of the UK’s economic recovery expected to be constrained by the renewed national lockdown, and unemployment widely predicted to rise in the coming months, downward pressure on house prices remains likely as we move through 2021.”

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar continued its rise against major currencies as rising US yields triggered some easing of bearish bets on the currency.

The dollar has rebounded from a near three-year low, with traders taking profits, particularly against the euro, after the dollar index fell almost 7% in 2020 and 0.9% in the new year amid expectations of US fiscal stimulus. .

This week, Democrats gained effective control of the Senate, which will give President-elect Joe Biden the opportunity to increase spending, which analysts say will be negative for bonds and the dollar.

Later on Friday, investors are waiting for data on the number of jobs in the US non-agricultural sector to understand whether significantly more stimulus will be needed to support the economic recovery.

"The US employment report can be seen as a potential litmus test for dollar bears," analysts at TD Securities wrote in a note to a client.

“Positioning is stretched and the backup in U.S. yields has some investors nervous. Our call for a negative print might not be large enough to trigger a liquidation in shorts, but we think a defensive posture is tactically warranted nonetheless.”

According to the report from the Insee, in November 2020, household consumption expenditure on goods dropped (–18.9% in volume* after +3.9% in October). This decrease was mainly explained by the implementation of lockdown measures from October 28; it was particularly marked for purchases of manufactured goods (–30.1%) and energy expenditure (–19.2%). Food consumption is also falling (–5.8%).

Household consumption expenditure on goods is thus 17.1% lower than its level in November 2019. This decline is however less severe than the one observed during the 1st lockdown (–32.8% in April 2020, compared to April 2019).

In November, manufactured good consumption dropped (–30.1%). Durable goods purchases (–24.7%) and other manufactured goods (–25.3%) were in sharp decline. Spending on clothing and textiles dropped more sharply (–53.0%).

In November, spending on durable goods fell by 24.7%. Purchases of transport equipment fell by 20.8%, mainly due to the drop in purchases of new cars. Likewise, purchases of household equipment fell by 25.4%, led by lower purchases of furniture and household appliances.

In November, spending on clothing and textiles was halved (–53.0%), due to the drop in sales of clothing and footwear.

In November, consumption of "other manufactured goods" fell (–25.3%), due to the sharp decline in sales of perfumes, as well as sales of games and toys and sports equipment.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2354 (797)

$1.2315 (2704)

$1.2294 (1200)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2264

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2241 (3967)

$1.2197 (1863)

$1.2149 (2392)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date January, 8 is 80181 contracts (according to data from January, 7) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2100 (4869);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3751 (648)

$1.3702 (1943)

$1.3655 (1509)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3584

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3534 (588)

$1.3494 (746)

$1.3448 (786)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 8 is 56727 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4000 (33147);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 8 is 29877 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (2933);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.52 versus 0.53 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 7

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

eFXdata reports that Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses its expectations for the US December jobs report.

"We expect Friday’s December employment report to show a continued slowdown in the labour market recovery, with nonfarm payroll gains nearly grinding to a halt though. Consensus currently sits at 68k, though there are a range of forecasts between -175k and +200k. With barely positive payroll gains, we look for the unemployment rate to tick up to 6.8% from 6.7%, with average hourly earnings rising 0.2% MoM, resulting in a still-elevated 4.5% YoY pace," CACIB adds. 

According to the report from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), in November 2020, production in industry was up by 0.9% on the previous month on a price, seasonally and calendar adjusted basis. 

Economists had expected a 0.7% increase. Compared with November 2019, the decrease in calendar-adjusted production in industry amounted to 2.6%.

Compared with February 2020, the month before restrictions were imposed due to the corona pandemic in Germany, production in November 2020 was 3.8% lower in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms.

In November 2020, production in industry excluding energy and construction was up by 1.2%. Within industry, the production of intermediate goods showed an increase by 2.4% and the production of capital goods by 1.3%. The production of consumer goods decreased by 1.7%. Outside industry, energy production was down by 3.9% in November 2020 and the production in construction increased by 1.4%.

In October 2020, the corrected figure on the production in industry shows an increase of 3.4% (provisional: +3.2%) from September 2020.