Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:30 | Australia | Home Loans | September | 1.8% | 1.3% |
00:30 | Australia | RBA Monetary Policy Statement | |||
03:00 | China | Trade Balance, bln | October | 39.65 | 40.83 |
05:00 | Japan | Leading Economic Index | September | 91.9 | |
05:00 | Japan | Coincident Index | September | 99.0 | 99.5 |
06:45 | Switzerland | Unemployment Rate (non s.a.) | October | 2.1% | 2.2% |
07:00 | Germany | Current Account | September | 16.9 | 20.4 |
07:00 | Germany | Trade Balance (non s.a.), bln | September | 16.2 | |
07:45 | France | Trade Balance, bln | September | -5 | -4.8 |
07:45 | France | Industrial Production, m/m | September | -0.9% | 0.3% |
07:45 | France | Non-Farm Payrolls | Quarter III | 0.2% | |
13:15 | Canada | Housing Starts | October | 221.2 | 221.2 |
13:30 | Canada | Building Permits (MoM) | September | 6.1% | -2% |
13:30 | U.S. | FOMC Member Brainard Speaks | |||
13:30 | Canada | Unemployment rate | October | 5.5% | 5.5% |
13:30 | Canada | Employment | October | 53.7 | 15.9 |
15:00 | U.S. | Wholesale Inventories | September | 0% | 0.1% |
15:00 | U.S. | Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index | November | 95.5 | 95.9 |
18:00 | U.S. | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | November | 691 |
Major US stocks rose slightly amid conflicting reports on US-China trade relations. The focus was also on the new block of strong quarterly reporting of the corporate segment.
China's Commerce Department said Thursday that Beijing agreed with Washington to phase out existing trade tariffs between the two countries in order to reach the so-called “first phase” trade agreement. In addition, China's Xinhua State News Agency reported that Beijing is also considering lifting restrictions on poultry imports. Then Fox news reported that the US and China want to conclude the first stage of the deal on paper by the end of next week. However, Reuters, citing a source in the White House, reported that the White House plan to reduce tariffs for China is facing stiff internal opposition; and the final decision has not yet been made
Qualcomm (QCOM) reported quarterly earnings of $ 0.78 per share, up $ 0.07 per share from analysts. The company's revenue also exceeded forecasts. Qualcomm’s results were backed up by licensing operations, primarily through Apple’s licensing agreement (AAPL). QCOM shares jumped 6.3%.
Both Baidu (BIDU )’s third-quarter earnings and revenues surpassed Wall Street’s expectations, mainly due to an increase in its subscription to its iQiyi (IQ) video streaming service. BIDU shares soared 13.5%.
Investors also studied the Department of Labor report, which showed that initial US unemployment benefits fell more than expected in the week ending November 2. According to the report, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell to 211,000, which is 8,000 less than the revised level of the previous week at 219,000 people. Economists had expected the number of applications to drop to 215,000 from the 218,000 reported earlier the previous week. The number of requests indicates good conditions in the labor market. In October, employment grew faster than expected, with the addition of 128,000 jobs, despite the General Motors strike striking down 46,000 workers at automakers in Michigan and Kentucky.
Most of the DOW components completed trading in positive territory (22 of 30). The biggest gainers were Dow Inc. (DOW; + 2.80%). Outsiders were shares of Pfizer Inc. (PFE; -1.86%).
Most S&P sectors recorded an increase. The base materials sector grew the most (+ 1.0%). The largest decline was shown by the utilities sector (-1.1%).
At the time of closing:
Dow 27,674.80 +182.24 +0.66%
S&P 500 3,085.18 +8.40 +0.27%
Nasdaq 100 8,434.52 +23.89 +0.28%
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:30 | Australia | Home Loans | September | 1.8% | 1.3% |
00:30 | Australia | RBA Monetary Policy Statement | |||
03:00 | China | Trade Balance, bln | October | 39.65 | 40.83 |
05:00 | Japan | Leading Economic Index | September | 91.9 | |
05:00 | Japan | Coincident Index | September | 99.0 | 99.5 |
06:45 | Switzerland | Unemployment Rate (non s.a.) | October | 2.1% | 2.2% |
07:00 | Germany | Current Account | September | 16.9 | 20.4 |
07:00 | Germany | Trade Balance (non s.a.), bln | September | 16.2 | |
07:45 | France | Trade Balance, bln | September | -5 | -4.8 |
07:45 | France | Industrial Production, m/m | September | -0.9% | 0.3% |
07:45 | France | Non-Farm Payrolls | Quarter III | 0.2% | |
13:15 | Canada | Housing Starts | October | 221.2 | 221.2 |
13:30 | Canada | Building Permits (MoM) | September | 6.1% | -2% |
13:30 | U.S. | FOMC Member Brainard Speaks | |||
13:30 | Canada | Unemployment rate | October | 5.5% | 5.5% |
13:30 | Canada | Employment | October | 53.7 | 15.9 |
15:00 | U.S. | Wholesale Inventories | September | 0% | 0.1% |
15:00 | U.S. | Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index | November | 95.5 | 95.9 |
18:00 | U.S. | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | November | 691 |
As expected, the Bank of England MPC kept rates unchanged at 0.75% and analysts at Rabobank note that the forward guidance of a slow rise in rates provides the markets less and less actual guidance, as it has become explicitly conditioned on a happily-ever-after world.
Previewing the Canadian jobs report that will be released on Friday, TD Securities' analysts said that they look for the labour market to continue its hot streak with the creation of other 25K jobs in October, above the market consensus for 15K.
James Smith, a developed market economist at ING, notes that the Bank of England (BoE) has taken markets by surprise, with two members voting for an immediate cut.
FX Strategists at UOB Group are expecting NZD/USD to keep the consolidative mood unchanged for the time being.
U.S. stock-index futures rose on Thursday amid signs of progress in U.S.-China trade relations and a new slew of largely upbeat earnings reports.
Global Stocks:
Index/commodity | Last | Today's Change, points | Today's Change, % |
Nikkei | 23,330.32 | +26.50 | +0.11% |
Hang Seng | 27,847.23 | +158.59 | +0.57% |
Shanghai | 2,978.71 | +0.1189 | 0.00% |
S&P/ASX | 6,726.60 | +66.40 | +1.00% |
FTSE | 7,424.41 | +27.76 | +0.38% |
CAC | 5,878.42 | +11.68 | +0.20% |
DAX | 13,268.04 | +88.15 | +0.67% |
Crude oil | $57.29 | +1.67% | |
Gold | $1,485.00 | -0.54% |
Analysts at Westpac are recommending to go long on EUR/USD pair at 1.1080 levels for the target price of 1.1280, while maintaining stop loss of 1.1015.
“Rationale:
Risks:
(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)
3M Co | MMM | 176.15 | 2.15(1.24%) | 3644 |
ALTRIA GROUP INC. | MO | 46.08 | 0.17(0.37%) | 5007 |
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ | AMZN | 1,803.00 | 7.23(0.40%) | 17843 |
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP | AIG | 55.75 | 0.23(0.41%) | 2317 |
Apple Inc. | AAPL | 258.5 | 2.03(0.79%) | 226509 |
AT&T Inc | T | 39.3 | 0.05(0.13%) | 37195 |
Boeing Co | BA | 356 | 3.87(1.10%) | 28264 |
Caterpillar Inc | CAT | 147.1 | 1.61(1.11%) | 8591 |
Cisco Systems Inc | CSCO | 48.62 | 0.35(0.73%) | 21815 |
Citigroup Inc., NYSE | C | 75.49 | 1.07(1.44%) | 33630 |
Deere & Company, NYSE | DE | 177 | 1.03(0.59%) | 746 |
E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co | DD | 71 | 0.67(0.95%) | 800 |
Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM | 72 | 0.51(0.71%) | 10150 |
Facebook, Inc. | FB | 192.35 | 0.80(0.42%) | 41042 |
FedEx Corporation, NYSE | FDX | 165.25 | 2.08(1.27%) | 4638 |
Ford Motor Co. | F | 9 | 0.08(0.90%) | 199064 |
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE | FCX | 10.96 | 0.32(3.01%) | 36203 |
General Electric Co | GE | 11.1 | 0.08(0.73%) | 200450 |
General Motors Company, NYSE | GM | 38.81 | 0.39(1.02%) | 3848 |
Goldman Sachs | GS | 221 | 2.58(1.18%) | 6213 |
Google Inc. | GOOG | 1,296.90 | 5.10(0.39%) | 3391 |
Hewlett-Packard Co. | HPQ | 19.73 | 0.16(0.82%) | 50592 |
Home Depot Inc | HD | 234.85 | 0.84(0.36%) | 1657 |
HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC. | HON | 181.05 | 0.24(0.13%) | 197 |
Intel Corp | INTC | 58.14 | 0.54(0.94%) | 42839 |
International Business Machines Co... | IBM | 138 | 0.84(0.61%) | 13778 |
Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | 131.4 | 0.44(0.34%) | 4364 |
JPMorgan Chase and Co | JPM | 130.7 | 1.40(1.08%) | 9620 |
McDonald's Corp | MCD | 195.59 | 1.41(0.73%) | 17139 |
Merck & Co Inc | MRK | 83.4 | 0.15(0.18%) | 4300 |
Microsoft Corp | MSFT | 144.57 | 0.51(0.35%) | 71251 |
Nike | NKE | 90.65 | 1.17(1.31%) | 10775 |
Pfizer Inc | PFE | 37.3 | 0.05(0.13%) | 25726 |
Procter & Gamble Co | PG | 119.85 | -0.47(-0.39%) | 5872 |
Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ | SBUX | 83.15 | 0.16(0.19%) | 16372 |
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ | TSLA | 329.54 | 2.96(0.91%) | 107021 |
The Coca-Cola Co | KO | 52.76 | -0.04(-0.08%) | 16581 |
Twitter, Inc., NYSE | TWTR | 29.07 | -0.47(-1.59%) | 380560 |
United Technologies Corp | UTX | 149.15 | 0.84(0.57%) | 899 |
UnitedHealth Group Inc | UNH | 251.98 | 1.46(0.58%) | 1074 |
Verizon Communications Inc | VZ | 60.2 | 0.07(0.12%) | 5864 |
Visa | V | 177.2 | 0.43(0.24%) | 15834 |
Wal-Mart Stores Inc | WMT | 120.1 | 0.60(0.50%) | 23150 |
Walt Disney Co | DIS | 132.4 | 1.13(0.86%) | 61970 |
Yandex N.V., NASDAQ | YNDX | 34.35 | 0.15(0.44%) | 1972 |
Twitter (TWTR) downgraded to Underperform from In-line at Evercore ISI
U.S. weekly
jobless claims decrease more than forecast
The data from
the Labor Department revealed on Thursday the number of applications for
unemployment benefits fell more than forecast last week, consistent with strong
labor market conditions.
According to
the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits decreased by 8,000 to
a seasonally adjusted 211,000 for the week ended November 2. That was the
lowest level in a month.
Economists had
expected 215,000 new claims last week.
Claims for the
prior week were revised upwardly to 219,000 from the initial estimate of 218,000.
Meanwhile, the
four-week moving average of claims rose by 250 to 215,250.
Analysts at Rabobank suggests that there may not be too many common threads between the UK’s political parties, but it appears that irrespective of the results of the December 12 election, the UK economy is on course for additional fiscal spending.
Sean Callow, an analyst at Westpac, suggests that the support for USD/JPY from rising US yields is starting to moderate.
FX Strategists at UOB Group are seeing the up move in USD/JPY to meet a tough barrier at 109.75 in the short-term horizon.
Baidu (BIDU) reported Q3 FY 2019 earnings of $1.76 per share (versus $2.77 in Q3 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.17.
The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $3.929 bln (-4.4% y/y), generally in line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $3.889 bln.
The company also issues in-line guidance for Q4 FY 2019, projecting revenues of $3.78-4.02 bln versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $3.9 bln.
BIDU rose to $114.50 (+6.65%) in pre-market trading.
The Bank of
England (BoE) announced its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority
of 7-2 to maintain Bank Rate at 0.75 percent at its September meeting.
The MPC also
voted unanimously to maintain the corporate bond purchases at £10 billion and
UK government bond purchases at £435 billion.
In its
statement, the BoE notes:
Analysts at Westpac note that NZD/USD ran out energy at 0.6465 and is now in a neutral state, needing to sustain a break above 0.6440 for the near-term bullish case to be revived.
According to Sean Callow, analyst at Westpac, the RBA’s quarterly statement will provide details of the optimistic growth forecast but this week saw a dismal reading on retail sales volumes, which the RBA can only hope is not replicated in the national accounts next month.
“The upbeat RBA narrative could be rattled if we see weak Q3 wages data on Wed and an uptick in Oct unemployment on Thu. On the positive side, risk appetite remains elevated and spec positioning is already bearish. But with US$ having found its feet as the FOMC’s pause narrative was bolstered by strong NFP and services ISM data, AUD/USD ranges seem set to edge lower. The 200dma at 0.6949 remains firmly intact, with the pair near term more likely to spend time between the 50dma at 0.6810 and 100dma at 0.6850.”
Britain's independent budget watchdog dropped a plan to publish an updated assessment of the public finances on Thursday after the country's top civil servant decided at the last minute that it would break election rules.
The Office for Budget Responsibility had been widely expected to revise up its forecasts for Britain's borrowing needs after changes to the way the public accounts are calculated, putting the government on course to break a borrowing cap it had set itself.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson called a snap Dec. 12 election in a bid to break the Brexit deadlock. His finance minister Sajid Javid said earlier on Thursday that only Johnson's Conservative Party could be trusted with the public finances.
"We had planned to publish a technical restatement of our March public finance forecast this morning," the OBR said in a statement issued an hour before the new forecasts had been due for release.
"This will no longer go ahead as the Cabinet Secretary has concluded that this would not be consistent with the Cabinet Office’s General Election Guidance."
Europe's economy is settling into a pattern of "subdued" expansion as global trade tensions weigh on the export-oriented bloc, the European Union said, slashing growth expectations and calling for more stimulus.
Gross domestic product in the 19-member eurozone will grow by 1.1% in 2019, the EU said, cutting its 1.2% forecast from July. The expansion rate is seen rising to 1.2% next year, down from 1.4% previously expected, and remain at 1.2% in 2021.
The EU's economic outlook is deteriorating as the U.S.-China trade war saps global growth. That in turn is dampening investments and manufacturing in Europe, where domestic demand isn't strong enough to drive robust economic expansion.
Eurozone growth could be further hampered by a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China's economy, as Beijing tries to cushion the blows from its trade spat with the U.S., the EU said.
A no-deal Brexit would also exacerbate weaknesses in the manufacturing sector and further erode domestically oriented industries' performance, according to the EU.
Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac, suggests that the USD could not find its feet despite a Fed pause and strong payrolls but now that yields are rising it has regained poise, DXY 97.0 likely to provide strong short term support.
“The 1-3 month trend still looks negative, though. There’s one more leg up for risk appetite on confirmation of a partial US-China deal in Dec (still more likely than not). And while that will lift US yields further and cement a Fed pause, the more consistent trend has seen the USD fall (ex-JPY), as receding tensions take pressure off the more trade/factory-sensitive Asia/Europe economies. The New Year will see impeachment and 2020 elections develop as a more prominent USD driver too. Trump’s tax and trade policies accentuated the US-RoW growth disparity, cementing USD upside, and any lengthening in Trump re-election odds won’t sit well with the USD. Slightly better German data (factory orders, services PMI), cautious German backing for a banking union, a more open minded stance on fiscal stimulus and diminished risk of EU auto tariffs also play to less bullish USD atmospherics into year’s end.”
The euro zone economy will continue to grow in the second half of the year, even if only modestly, boosted by private consumption and a small growth in employment, the European Central Bank said in an Economic Bulletin.
"Incoming data and survey results point to moderate but positive economic growth in the second half of 2019," the ECB said in the bulletin, which is largely consistent with its October policy statement. "This growth pattern can be primarily attributed to weak global trade and prolonged uncertainties."
"Risks to the global economy remain to the downside amid a further escalation of trade disputes, high uncertainty related to Brexit and a potentially slower recovery in a number of emerging market economies," the ECB added.
Official data showed that China's foreign-exchange reserves rose last month amid yuan's rebound against the U.S. dollar.
The country's hoard of foreign exchange increased $12.73 billion on month to $3.105 trillion in October, according to data released by the People's Bank of China, compared with a consensus forecast of an increase of $21 billion.
The rise in October was due to valuation effects from a weaker dollar against a basket of currencies and asset price changes as bond prices in major economies dropped, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said.
The country's cross-border capital flows have been steady despite rising risks from the global market, the regulator said.
Deutsche Bank analysts note that the Fed’s Evans repeated similar messages from his FOMC colleagues yesterday, saying that the Fed has engineered accommodative policy with a third cut.
“He also said that he is comfortable with 2.5% inflation in order to build momentum to get it sustainably to the Fed’s target of 2%. Later on, Williams said that monetary policy was “moderately accommodative”, and on the poor productivity release earlier, said that it is “just being consistent with a kind of ongoing longer-run trend of moderate productivity”.”
According to the report from Halifax Bank of Scotland, UK house prices in October were 0.9% higher than in the same month a year earlier. In September prices by rose 1.1%. Economists had expected a 1.4% increase in October
On a monthly basis, house prices fell by 0.1% after a 0.4% decline in September. Economists had expected a 1.3% increase.
In the latest quarter (August to October) house prices were 0.2% higher than in the preceding three months (May to July)
Russell Galley, Managing Director, Halifax, said: “Average house prices continued to slow in October, with a modest rise of 0.9% over the past year. While this is the lowest growth seen in 2019, it again extends the largely flat trend which has taken hold over recent months. A number of underlying factors such as mortgage affordability and wage growth continue to support prices, however there is evidence of consumers erring on the side of caution. We remain unchanged from our view that activity levels and price growth will remain subdued while the UK navigates political and economic uncertainty.”
According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, GBP/USD pair is easing back from 1.30, and is likely to head back towards the 1.2784 25th June high and the 1.27664/23.6% retracement.
“It should hold here for another attempt at the psychological resistance at 1.3000. Directly above here we have the 200 week ma at 1.3131 and the 1.3187 May high and these remain our short term targets, however we look for the market to be capped here. The 200 day ma at 1.2706 guards 1.2582. For now, provided dips lower hold over 1.2582 (20th September high), an immediate upside bias is maintained. The 1.3187 May high guards the 1.3382 2019 high. Below 1.2582 lies the 1.2382 17th July low and the 1.2348 uptrend. The uptrend guards 1.2196/94. Below the current October low at 1.2194 lies the early and mid-August lows at 1.2091/15 and major support lies at the 1.1958 September low.”
China's Commerce Ministry was out with a statement in the last hour, saying that the US and China have agreed to cancel existing tariffs in different phases. The comments helped offset the overnight report, suggesting that phase one deal might be delayed until December and led to a turnaround in the global risk sentiment.
Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that EUR/USD pair is easing lower very near term towards the 55 day ma at 1.1044 and the 50% retracement at 1.1030 and they look for the market to recover from this vicinity.
“It should then challenge the 200 day ma at 1.1190 and the top of the channel at 1.1276. We would allow for a minor retracement, dips lower are indicated to hold over 1.1073 and 1.1044 (55 day ma). The 55 week ma offers additional resistance at 1.1243. Longer term the critical resistance to overcome is the 200 week ma at 1.1357 and while we would allow for this zone of resistance to hold the initial test, longer term we look for a break higher to feature. This will target 1.1520/70, the 2019 high, as a minimum.Below 1.0879 we have the January 2017 low at 1.0829 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-2018 advance at 1.0814.”
Deutsche Bank analysts suggest that in today’s BoE decision, no policy change is expected however Deutsche Bank’s economists expect a dovish message, with the BoE dropping its tightening bias and instead moving towards an easing policy stance.
“They note that domestically, data have deteriorated sufficiently to warrant more supportive monetary policy. Growth has slowed and is tracking below the Bank's "speed limit" of 1.5% with uncertainty likely weighing further on the near-term growth outlook. Equally, the UK supply side story is also turning softer, with labour market indicators pointing to downside risks for both pay and jobs by Q4 2019 and inflation now expected to remain below target in 2020. As a result our economists no longer forecast a hike next year and instead see an increasing risk of a rate cut at the January Inflation Report - Governor Carney's final MPC meeting.”
According to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), in September 2019, production in industry was down by 0.6% on the previous month on a price, seasonally and calendar adjusted basis. Economists had expected a 0.4% decrease. In August 2019, the corrected figure shows an increase of 0.4% (primary +0.3%) from July 2019.
In September 2019, production in industry excluding energy and construction was down by 1.3%. Within industry, the production of intermediate goods decreased by 1.3% and the production of capital goods by 1.5%. The production of consumer goods showed a decrease by 0.5%. Outside industry, energy production was up by 2.0% in September 2019 and the production in construction increased by 1.8%.
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1201 (2811)
$1.1153 (3372)
$1.1117 (3537)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1060
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1047 (2358)
$1.0999 (3930)
$1.0950 (3351)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date November, 8 is 77161 contracts (according to data from November, 6) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (3930);
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.2955 (1478)
$1.2912 (972)
$1.2873 (1850)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2842
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.2795 (776)
$1.2747 (601)
$1.2698 (295)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 8 is 25896 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3400 (3252);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 8 is 30435 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2100 (3161);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.18 versus 1.15 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 6
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
Raw materials | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
Brent | 62.06 | -1.8 |
WTI | 56.31 | -1.33 |
Silver | 17.6 | 0.11 |
Gold | 1491.057 | 0.49 |
Palladium | 1790.59 | 0.98 |
Index | Change, points | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|---|
NIKKEI 225 | 51.83 | 23303.82 | 0.22 |
Hang Seng | 5.24 | 27688.64 | 0.02 |
KOSPI | 1.51 | 2144.15 | 0.07 |
ASX 200 | -36.9 | 6660.2 | -0.55 |
FTSE 100 | 8.57 | 7396.65 | 0.12 |
DAX | 31.39 | 13179.89 | 0.24 |
Dow Jones | -0.07 | 27492.56 | -0 |
S&P 500 | 2.16 | 3076.78 | 0.07 |
NASDAQ Composite | -24.05 | 8410.63 | -0.29 |
Pare | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
AUDUSD | 0.68833 | -0.14 |
EURJPY | 120.594 | -0.24 |
EURUSD | 1.10659 | -0.07 |
GBPJPY | 140.09 | -0.39 |
GBPUSD | 1.2855 | -0.21 |
NZDUSD | 0.63682 | -0.09 |
USDCAD | 1.31823 | 0.23 |
USDCHF | 0.9927 | 0.02 |
USDJPY | 108.973 | -0.17 |
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