Forex-novosti i prognoze od 06-09-2019

• U.S. negotiators would like to pick up where they left off in May, not sure if that's possible
• Says he doesn't want to speculate about tariffs being delayed
• U.S.-China phone call earlier this week went well
• Tempers are calmer now
• We're involved in very comprehensive discussions
• We would love to go back to where we were in May, but I don't want to predict
• It may well be that something positive comes out of it
• Trump continues to say 'we will make a deal, as long as it's a good deal'
• President believes China wants to make a deal
• Can't predict outcome of talks

Nathan Janzen, the senior economist at Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), notes that the U.S. employment rose 130k vs expectations closer to 160k, while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7% and the wage growth ticked lower but held above 3%.

• “The 130k increase in August employment in the US was a bit softer than expected, and won’t do much to calm concerns that economic growth is slowing in the second half of 2019 under the weight of escalating international trade tensions.  Still, the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%, right around multi-decade lows.
• Wage growth ticked a touch lower but is still running above a 3% rate.  The headline employment numbers are often volatile, but even if the 130k pace in August were to be sustained, it would probably be enough to put further downward rather than upward pressure on the unemployment rate.
• Fed policymakers will still likely take some slowing in payroll employment growth this year as validation for further rate cuts – but that also helps to decrease the odds that industrial weakness will spill over into a broader slowdown in the economy.”

The Ivey Business School Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), measuring Canada’s economic activity, rose to 60.6 in August from an unrevised 54.2 in July. That was the highest reading since October 2018.

Economists had expected the gauge to hit 53.0.

A figure above 50 shows an increase while below 50 shows a decrease.

Within sub-indexes, the inventories indicator climbed to 54.8 in August from 46.9 in the prior month and the supplier deliveries gauge rose to 49.9 from 46.0, while the employment measure fell to 52.7 in this month from 56.6 in July and the prices index dropped to 51.3 from 59.2.

Josh Nye, the senior economist at the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), notes that the Canadian employment rose 81,000 in August with part-time jobs accounting for most of the increase, while the unemployment was steady at 5.7% and wages continued to rise at a healthy clip.

• “Impressive job gains are nothing new—average employment growth over the last year is running at its strongest pace since 2003. August’s gain was skewed toward part-time (and younger workers) but trends in full-time and private employment have been healthy.
• Job gains have been aided by strong population growth and labour force participation, with the unemployment rate settling in a 5.5-5.8% range (as good as it gets when you look at the past 50 years).
• Wage growth, long the missing ingredient in Canada’s strengthening labour market, has firmed nicely. The LFS measure has been close to 4% in Q3, while a broader array of wage indicators was around 3% in Q2 (about consistent with full employment and 2% inflation).
• Overall, today’s jobs numbers will leave the BoC comfortable with its more neutral than expected stance taken this week. Markets seem to agree, with the Canadian dollar strengthening further this morning.”

Kjetil Olsen, an analyst at Nordea Markets, notes that the U.S. Nonfarm payrolls increased by a lower than expected 130k in August, following a revised 159k in July (down from 164k).

• “The 6-month average increased, however, from 140k to 150k, since the very weak February reading went out of the calculation. The 12-month average decreased from 185k to 173k.
• Private payrolls were up only 96k, well below consensus of 150k. It could indicate that the economy is really starting to slow. At face value today’s figure of private employment is consistent with growth below trend. A disclaimer is that August is known of being underreported initially, and then revised up later, however.
• Nevertheless, the trend employment growth has slowed during 2019 indicating slowing in the overall economy also. Weakness is more than evident in manufacturing; the question is still how much the rest of the economy will be affected.
• The U3 unemployment rate was stable at 3.7 % while the broader U6 unemployment rate increased 0.2 % point to 7.2%.
• The only strong element of today’s job report was wage growth which picked up to 0.4% m/m (3.2% y/y). This is the second month in a row wage growth surprise to the upside.
• Overall the labour market report confirms that growth in the US economy is slowing. We are expecting a new rate cut of 25bp at the September meeting. Both the 2-year and the 10-year treasury yield were down 4bp half an hour after the publication of the report.”

U.S. stock-index futures rose on Friday, despite the release of mixed jobs report, which showed a greater-than-expected slowdown in domestic job growth in August and a strong wage gain. 

Global Stocks:

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Statistics Canada reported on Friday that the number of employed people surged by 81,100 m-o-m in August, while economists had forecast a gain of 15,000 and after an unrevised drop of 24,200 in the previous month.

Meanwhile, Canada's unemployment remained unchanged at 5.7 percent, in line with economists’ forecast.

According to the report, full-time employment increased by 23,800 (or +0.2 percent m-o-m) in August, while part-time jobs climbed by 57,200 (or +1.6 percent m-o-m).

In August, the number of private-sector employees surged by 94,300 (+0.8 percent m-o-m), while the number of public sector employees dropped by 2,100 (-0.1 percent m-o-m). At the same time, the number of self-employed decreased by 11,200 (-0.4 percent m-o-m) last month.

Sector-wise, there were more people employed in finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing (+22,400) educational services (+20,500), and in professional, scientific and technical services (+16,800). In contrast, employment declined in business, building and other support services (-22,300).

On a year-over-year basis, employment grew by 471,000 (+2.5 percent) in August, driven by gains in both full- (+306,000 or +2.0 percent) and part-time work (+165,000 or +4.8 percent).

Bank of America (BAC) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette; target lowered to $29

The U.S. Labor Department announced on Friday that nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 in August after a downwardly revised 159,000 gain in the prior month (originally an increase of 164,000).

According to the report, employment in federal government rose by 28,000, due mainly to the hiring of 25,000 temporary workers for the 2020 Census. Meanwhile, private-sector employment rose by 96,000, with notable job gains in health care (+24,000 jobs) and financial (+15,000) activities, while mining (-6,000) lost jobs.

The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7 percent in August.

Economists had forecast 158,000 new jobs and the jobless rate to stay at 3.7 percent.

The labor force participation rate edged up to 63.2 percent from 63 percent in July, while hourly earnings for private-sector workers rose 0.4 percent m-o-m (11 cents) to $28.11, following an unrevised 0.3 percent m-o-m gain in July. Economists had forecast a 0.3 percent m-o-m advance in the average hourly earnings. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.2 percent, following a revised 3.3 percent rise in July (originally a gain of 3.2 percent).

The average workweek increased by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours in August, matching economists’ forecast. 

Lululemon Athletica (LULU) reported Q2 FY 2019 earnings of $0.96 per share (versus $0.71 in Q2 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.89.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $0.883 bln (+22.1% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.845 bln.

The company also issued guidance for Q3, projecting EPS of $0.90-0.92 (versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.90) and revenues of $0.880-0.890 bln (versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.865 bln).

For FY2019, the company forecasts EPS of $4.63-4.70 (versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $4.64) and revenues of $3.8-3.84 bln (versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $3.81 bln).

LULU rose to $200.00 (+6.15%) in pre-market trading.

Iris Pang, the economist for Greater China at ING, notes the PBoC announced a 0.5 percentage point cut to the RRR effective in two batches on 15 October and 15 November. 

• "The central bank estimates that the cash released will be around CNY900 billion, of which CNY 100 billion will come from the targeted RRR cut. 
• As the cut will release CNY900bn, which is equivalent to 85% of new yuan loans in July, the impact on interest rates should be obvious.
• We expect that the SHIBOR curve will shift downward. As we expect another RRR cut in the fourth quarter, the SHIBOR curve should fall more at the front end than the back end, which should mean a flatter curve.
• The same should apply to China's sovereign bond curve.
• To benefit small firms, the prerequisite is that:

1. Either small firms have already borrowed a loan linked to SHIBOR. This doesn't seem very popular for small loans, so we expect few small firms to benefit from this channel
2. Or small firms are willing to borrow, in which case they would benefit from the lower interest rate.

• As we expect the RRR cut to reduce interest rates, this raises the question of whether USD/CNY will be affected. We think the correlation between interest rates and the exchange rate in China is still weak due to its capital controls and semi-open capital account. 
• Even if there is some impact on the exchange rate through the semi-open capital account, this will likely be offset by a possible Federal Reserve interest rate cut in 4Q19.
• As such, we keep our forecasts for USD/CNY at the end of 2019 at 7.20 and the range forecast at 7.05-7.50. 
• The next RRR cut announcement may be made in December, and the effective date could be in January 2020, as the trade war continues to hit the Chinese economy. The impact will be the same, i.e. to lower interest rates in general to prevent small firms from defaulting."

Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that after a decline in inflation expectations since the start of the year, which intensified in the second quarter, they believe the ECB will now be forced to act.

• “While key ECB Governing Council members (GC) have recently voiced concerns about additional stimulus via bond purchases, we still expect a bold ECB package as the ECB's credibility is on the line. If the ECB fails to deliver a substantial package, we believe inflation expectations will not creep higher from the alarmingly low levels (compared with its inflation mandate).
• Furthermore, if the ECB fails to deliver, the financial market community would have been thrown off the trail by the numerous dovish comments, including the major shift from Mario Draghi in Sintra, which would be a dent to its credibility and transparency.
• We keep our call for next week's ECB meeting as we outlined after Draghi's Sintra speech to include a rate cut and restart of QE (18 June 2019). We argue for a restart of QE for EUR45-60bn for 12 months, a rate cut of 20bp, a tiering system and extended forward guidance.”

• They are also not to hold a no-confidence motion against the government

• I'll go to Brussels and get a deal
• People in the UK want us to get on and leave on October 31
• Says Labour must have the guts to have an election
• Says not willing to contemplate resigning

Analysts at Westpac note that in 2019, the U.S. employment growth has throttled back to 165k, which is still ahead of the monthly pace necessary to keep the unemployment rate steady, but is a material deceleration from the strong 200k per month gains of the past 8 years.

• “We look for job growth to slow further in coming months, forecasting a 140k gain for August and an average circa 130k through H2 2019. If this occurs, then the unemployment rate will stabilise around its 50-year low.
• For wages, the tight labour market should be enough to sustain growth between 3.0% and 3.5%yr. However, a renewed uptrend above the top end of this range seems increasingly unlikely. Along with softer job growth, the stabilisation of wages growth will weigh on spending growth.”

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting Canada’s labour market to rebound with the creation of 15k jobs in August (market: 20k), following the first consecutive declines since 2014.

• “Details should prove upbeat with a partial recovery in private employment while wage growth is projected to push even higher to 4.7% y/y (market: 4.5%) due in part to base-effects. Lastly, our forecast has the unemployment rate edging lower to 5.6%, helped by modest labour force growth during August.”

• Will further cut RRR for some qualified banks
• Additional reduction for said banks will be up to 100 bps or 1.00%
• Targeted reduction for qualified banks will be via two phases of 50 bps cut each
• RRR cuts to release about ¥900 billion in liquidity
• Reiterates that will continue to implement prudent monetary policy

Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union (EU) reported its final estimates showed that Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2 percent q-o-q in the second quarter, unchanged from the previous estimates. In the first quarter, the GDP rose by 0.4 percent q-o-q.

In y-o-y terms, Eurozone’s economy expanded by 1.2 percent in the second quarter compared to +1.1 percent in the previous estimate and +1.2 percent in the prior three-month period.

Economists had forecast that both final quarterly and annual rates of the GDP growth would be left unrevised.

According to the report, household final consumption expenditure in the euro area rose by 0.2 percent q-o-q, while gross fixed capital formation increased by 0.5 percent q-o-q. Exports were flat q-o-q and imports increased by 0.2 percent q-o-q.

Among the bloc’s largest economies, the United Kingdom (-0.2 percent), Germany (-0.1 percent) and Sweden (-0.1 percent) posted declines, while Italy stagnated.

The report also revealed that employment in Eurozone increased by 0.2 percent q-o-q in the second quarter and 1.2 percent y-o-y. In the first quarter, the number of persons employed rose 0.3 percent q-o-q and 1.3 percent y-o-y. 

Analysts at ANZ note that Australia’s Q2 GDP report revealed an economy that has been held up by net exports and government spending, but private demand was exceptionally weak, continuing a trend that has been in place for some time.

• “The second half of the year looks better, with tax cuts and lower interest rates likely to boost spending. The housing market has been the immediate beneficiary of this stimulus. We expect retail will also get a boost, though the fall in retail sales for July was a surprise.
• But when we look into 2020 we struggle to see an economy that will grow fast enough to put downward pressure on unemployment. Indeed, we think the more likely outcome is higher unemployment and/or underemployment as the impact of the sharp slowdown in domestic demand feeds though into the labour market.
• We think the RBA will judge that it has little choice but to ease further over the coming year. If this triggers a sharp lift in credit growth, we would expect other policymakers to respond. We think the RBA will resume its easing cycle in October and we see the cash rate hitting what we perceive to be the effective lower bound (ELB) of 0.25% by May 2020.
• Once the RBA is at the ELB, what comes next becomes the obvious question.”

Axel Rudolph, an analyst at Commerzbank, notes that GBP/USD’s recent slide to its current September low at 1.1958 was accompanied by a large divergence on the daily RSI.

• “Since the cross has now risen above the 1.2310 late August high, a bottom formation has been confirmed. Once a weekly Friday close above this level has been made as well, we will change our weekly outlook to a bullish one as well.
• In this case, the May and June lows at 1.2506/59 would be back in the frame. Minor support is seen between the early and mid-August lows at 1.2080/15 and major support at the 1.1958 current September low.
• A slip through the 1.1958 recent low would put the 1.1491 October 2016 low (according to CQG) on the cards.”

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting China’s imports to decline 5.3% y/y (mkt -6.5% y/y) in August and exports to increase 5.7% (mkt 2.0% y/y).

• “Overall trade conditions remain poor in the wake of tariffs intensification, though the latest increase in US tariffs will likely show up more in later months data. Weak Korean imports of Chinese goods and ongoing contraction in new export orders suggests that exports growth will remain unimpressive.
• Similarly, the drop in China’s PMI import orders component in August to its lowest level this year highlights ongoing downward pressure on imports, which in turn reflects slowing Chinese domestic growth momentum.”

Danske Bank's analysts expect the long-awaited ECB meeting on 12 September to set the scene for months and potentially quarters to come.

• “The question is not if the ECB will announce new initiatives but how much it will deliver.
• We expect the ECB to announce (1) a 20bp cut in the deposit rate (other key rates unchanged) and that the extended forward guidance ('at present or lower...well past the horizon of net asset purchases') will remain; (2) a 12-month QE restart of EUR45-60bn per month, albeit also acknowledging the downside risks given the recent hawkish communications from a few Governing Council members; and (3) a tiering system.
• The package is not likely to be a silver bullet for markets. The FX market is set to keep its focus on the rate cut, while the fixed income markets focus on the size of QE.”

The report from Halifax and IHS Markit showed that the house prices in the UK rose 0.3 percent m-o-m in August after a revised 0.4 percent m-o-m increase in July (primary a drop of 0.2 percent m-o-m). That exceeded economist forecast of 0.2 percent advance.

On a three-month basis, however, the house prices edged up 0.1 percent q-o-q in three months to August.

Meanwhile, the prices in the three months to August were 1.8 percent higher than in the same period of 2018. That was higher than a revised 1.5 percent y-o-y gain in July (originally a 4.1 percent y-o-y surge). Economists expected an increase of 3.4 percent.

Russell Galley, Managing Director, Halifax, noted that there was no real shift in house prices in August as the average property value grew by just 0.3 percent month on month. “This further extends the predominantly flat trend we’ve seen over the last six months, with the average house price having barely changed since March”, he added. ““While ongoing economic uncertainty continues to weigh on consumer sentiment – with evidence of both buyers and sellers exercising some caution – a number of important underlying factors such as affordability and employment remain strong. Although the housing market will undoubtedly be influenced by events in the wider economy, it continues to show a degree of resilience for the time being. We should also not lose sight of the fact that the single biggest driver of both prices and activity over the longer-term remains the dearth of available properties to meet demand from buyers.”

Danske Bank analysts note that the U.S. labour market report is due today and it will be a key economic release for the session.

• “The U.S. labour market has shown weakness for a while, so we think it is important to keep an eye on employment growth, which is an important recession indicator. We expect employment growth to come in around 164,000. Further, we estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.30% m/m in August, unchanged at 3.1% y/y.
• In the euro area, focus will be on the final Q2 GDP estimate, as we will get detailed information about the GDP components for the first time. The flash estimates showed that the euro area economy is limping along with a growth rate of 0.2% q/q. We will look out for how domestic demand contributed to the Q2 growth, as signs increasingly show that domestic demand is starting to feel the pinch as well.
• The Bank of Russia is expected to deliver a 25bp cut to the key rate to 7.00%.”

Carsten Brzeski, the chief economist at ING Germany, notes that Germany's industrial production dropped by 0.6% month-on-month in July from a slightly upwardly revised drop of 1.1% MoM in June. 

• "German industry continues to suffer from structural changes and the ongoing trade conflict. In fact, industry has seen a complete reversal within the short period of one year. Who still remembers last summer when the biggest problem for the German economy was supply-side constraints? The lack of demand has now become one of the most pressing issues. According to the European Commission’s sentiment indicators, the issue of demand as a limiting factor to production is at its highest level since 2012. Consequently, our previous hopes for investment being the growth wild card for this year have faded away. All supply-side constraints in industry are disappearing quickly. Unfortunately, this is not, as hoped, on the back of new investments but simply driven by weaker demand. Equipment as a limiting factor to production has dropped to its lowest level since the end of 2017. The lack of skilled workers has dropped to its lowest level since 2Q 2017. Capacity utilisation has fallen to its lowest levels since 1Q 2016.
• At least in the short run, the prospects for German industry remain bleak. Even with a magnifying glass, it is impossible to find signals of an imminent rebound. Shrinking order books, high inventories and continuing external uncertainty do not bode well for the coming months. To make things worse, the third consecutive dry summer could further slow down growth in the second half of the year (again). The water levels in the Rhine have started to fall at a similar magnitude to last summer, even though not yet to the extreme low levels of last year’s very dry autumn season.
• All in all, a very weak start to the third quarter for German industry. Even if this data comes too late to be incorporated into next week’s official ECB forecasts, it will be another argument for ECB members in favour of new monetary stimulus."

FX Strategists at UOB Group suggests that, following the recent price action, NZD/USD could now attempt to consolidate in the short-term. 

24-hour view: Our view for NZD yesterday was it “could edge above 0.6375 but the next major resistance at 0.6410 is not expected to come into the picture”. NZD subsequently touched 0.6395 before staging a relatively sharp pull-back. Upward pressure has eased and for today, 0.6410 is still unlikely to come into the picture. From here, the pull-back in NZD could extend lower but any weakness is viewed as a lower 0.6345/0.6390 trading range (a sustained decline is not expected)”.

Next 1-3 weeks: There is not much to add to the update from Wednesday (04 Sep, spot at 0.6335) wherein NZD is “expected to trade sideways but is likely to test the top of the 0.6290/0.6410 range first”. While NZD rose to 0.6395 yesterday (05 Sep), overbought shorter-term conditions suggest 0.6410 could be out of reach for the next few days. Looking ahead, if NZD were to move clearly above 0.6410, it would suggest a stronger recovery to 0.6450, possibly 0.6500."

Axel Rudolph, an analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that EUR/USD pair has seen a strong bounce from its current September low at 1.0926 and the nearby resistance can be found at the April and May lows at 1.1110/1.1106 as well as along the three-month resistance line at 1.1132.

“Only a daily chart close above the August 26 high at 1.1164 would confirm a bottoming formation and put the 200-day ma at 1.1268 back on the cards. Ideally, we would like the 55-week ma at 1.1329 to be exceeded as well. Support below the minor psychological 1.1000-mark comes in at the current September low at 1.0926.

Below the 1.0926 low lie the June 2016 low and the March 2017 high at 1.0912/07. Further down sit the January 2017 low at 1.0829 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-2018 advance at 1.0814.

The cross will need to regain the 55-week ma and downtrend channel resistance line at 1.1329/46 to generate upside interest.”

Japan’s household spending increases less than expected in July

The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications announced on Friday that the Japanese household spending increased 0.8 percent y-o-y in July, following a 2.7 percent y-o-y surge in June.

Economists had expected household spending to rise 1.1 percent m-o-m in July.

Individually, spending increased for medical care (+8.5 percent y-o-y), housing (+6.3 percent y-o-y), education (+3.8 percent y-o-y), transportation and communication (+2.0 percent y-o-y) and culture & recreation (+2.0 percent y-o-y), but reduced for furniture & household utensils (-7.5 percent y-o-y), utilities (-3.4 percent y-o-y), apparel (-3.4 percent y-o-y), and food (-0.5 percent y-o-y).

In m-o-m terms, household spending fell 0.9 percent in July after a 2.8 percent drop in June.

Japan's leading index stays at 93.6 in July

The preliminary data from the Cabinet Office showed Friday that Japan's leading index, a gauge for the economy's performance months ahead, remained unchanged at 93.6 in July compared to an upwardly revised June’s reading. That was above economists forecast of 93.2.

Meanwhile, the coincident economic index for Japan, which reflects current economic conditions, rose to 99.8 in July from a downwardly revised 99.5 in June. 

The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported on Friday that Germany’s industrial production dropped 0.6 percent m-o-m in July after a revised 1.1 percent m-o-m decrease in the prior month (primary a decline of 1.5 percent m-o-m).

Economists had forecast a 0.2 percent rise in July.

The major contributors to the July production fall were lower outputs of capital goods (-1.2 percent m-o-m) and intermediate goods (-0.7 percent m-o-m) as well as decreased energy production (-1.3 percent m-o-m). At the same time, production of consumer goods (+0.6 percent m-o-m) and construction output (+0.2 percent m-o-m) recorded increases.

Excluding energy and construction, production in the industry was down by0.8 percent m-o-m in July.

In y-o-y terms, industrial production fell 4.2 percent in July.

• Still maintaining momentum towards 2% price target
• Consumer spending and capital investment are relatively firm
• Caution is needed in light of unpredictable conditions overseas
• Can't rule out the possibility that the global economy will worsen further
• BoJ is considering a variety of additional easing possibilities 
• Lowering negative rates further is always an option