Forex-novosti i prognoze od 05-12-2019

Major US stock indexes rose slightly against the backdrop of favorable data on the US labor market. However, investors were cautious due to the lack of significant messages on trade negotiations between the US and China.

The representative of the Ministry of Commerce of China, Gao Feng, said today that representatives of both countries remain in close contact on trade issues. However, he did not provide further details on the progress of the negotiations. Gao also added that China "believes that if both parties reach an agreement on the first phase of the agreement, tariffs should be accordingly reduced."

Gao’s comments came after Wednesday, Bloomberg reported citing informed sources that the parties were approaching agreements on what tariffs should be abolished and how to guarantee China’s purchase of agricultural products from the United States. US President Donald Trump also said on Wednesday that he believes trade negotiations with Beijing are progressing "very well."

As a Labor Department report showed, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell unexpectedly last week, reaching the lowest level in seven months. This suggests that the labor market remains stable even in the face of a slowing economy. According to the Ministry of Labor, the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 10,000 to 203,000, seasonally adjusted for the week ending November 30, which is the lowest since mid-April. Economists predicted that the number of applications will increase to 215,000 in the last week.

In a separate report, the Ministry of Commerce reported that orders for manufactured goods rose 0.3% in October after a two-month drop, helped by growing demand for machinery and transportation equipment. Last change coincided with forecasts. Compared to October 2018. production orders were down 0.4%.

Most DOW components completed trading in positive territory (16 out of 30). The biggest gainers were NIKE Inc. (NKE; + 2.20%). Outsiders were 3M Company shares (MMM; -1.80%).

Most S&P sectors recorded an increase. The real estate sector grew the most (+ 2.4%). The largest decline was shown by the health sector (-0.2%).

At the time of closing:

Index

Dow 27,678.12 +28.34 + 0.10%

S&P 500 3,117.47 +4.71 + 0.15%

Nasdaq 100 8,570.70 +4.03 + 0.05%

Lee Sue Ann, an economist at UOB Group, provides her views on the BoJ’s monetary policy.

• “The BoJ kept its monetary policy stance and policy rate unchanged at the October monetary policy meeting, but it ‘dovishly’ enhanced its forward guidance to suggest possible rate cuts in future policy meetings. We expect the BoJ to stay on pause in December but renew easing monetary policy via deepening its negative policy call rate to -0.20% possibly in 1Q20.”

FX Strategists at UOB Group keep the constructive view on USD/CNH in the next weeks.

• "24-hour view: Our expectation for USD to ‘trade sideways to slightly higher’ was incorrect as it dropped to a low of 7.0480. Short-term upward pressure has dissipated, and the current movement is viewed as the early parts of a consolidation phase. In other words, USD is expected to trade sideways, likely between 7.0450 and 7.0670.
• Next 1-3 weeks: After trading mostly sideways for the past several weeks, USD staged a sudden and outsized rally of +0.32% (7.0652). While the ease by which strong resistance levels were taken out has shifted the risk to the upside, we are not convinced USD can maintain the pace of the current rally. From here, we see chance for USD to test the 7.1000 resistance but the prospect for a sustained rise above the major 7.1200 level is not high. Overall, USD is expected to trade on firm footing unless it drops below the ‘strong support’ level of 7.0400."

The Ivey Business School Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), measuring Canada’s economic activity, climbed to 60.0 in November from an unrevised 48.2 in October. That was the highest reading since August.

Economists had expected the gauge to hit 53.8.

A figure above 50 shows an increase while below 50 shows a decrease.

Within sub-indexes, the inventories indicator surged to 59.1 in November from 45.6 in the prior month, while the supplier deliveries gauge increased to 52.7 from 45.1 and the employment measure rose to 50.3 from 47.2. At the same time, the prices index decreased to 54.9 in October from 57.0 in October.

The U.S. Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the value of new factory orders rose 0.3 percent m-o-m in October, following a revised 0.8 percent m-o-m decrease in September (originally a 0.6 percent m-o-m drop).

Economists had forecast a 0.3 percent m-o-m gain.

According to the report, orders for transportation equipment jumped 0.7 percent m-o-m in October after declining 3.2 percent m-o-m in September. Orders for computers and electronic products rose 0.6 percent m-o-m, and machinery orders went up 1.2 percent m-o-m after edging down 0.1 percent m-o-m in September. Meanwhile, orders for electrical equipment, appliances and components decreased 1.8 percent m-o-m after advancing 0.9 percent m-o-m in September.

Total factory orders excluding transportation, a volatile part of the overall reading, increased 0.2 percent m-o-m in October (compared to a downwardly revised 0.3 percent m-o-m fall in September), while orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, a measure of business spending plans, climbed 1.1 percent m-o-m (instead of surging 1.2 percent m-o-m as reported last week). The report also showed that shipments of core capital goods surged 0.8 percent m-o-m in October, the same as previously reported.

In y-o-y terms, factory orders decreased 0.4 percent in October.

FX Strategists at UOB Group expect the USD/JPY to grind lower towards the 108.00 neighbourhood in the next weeks.

• "24-hour view: We expected ‘further USD weakness’ yesterday but were of the view ‘oversold conditions could limit weakness to 108.30’. However, USD rebounded strongly after touching a low of 108.41. Downward momentum has dissipated and indicators are unwinding from oversold conditions. For today, USD is likely to consolidate and trade sideways, expected to be within a 108.50/109.10.
• Next 1-3 weeks: We detected the weakened underlying tone yesterday (03 Dec, spot at 109.00) and expected USD ‘to test the bottom sideway-trading range’ at 108.50 first. While the view was not wrong, the rapid pace of the subsequent decline came as a surprise as USD plummeted and moved a few pips below 108.50 during NY hours (low of 108.47). The price action has resulted in a rapid improvement in momentum and from here, USD is expected to trade with downward bias towards 108.05. On the upside, only a break of the 109.20 ‘strong resistance’ would indicate that our view is wrong.”

Analysts at National Bank Financial (NBF) note that the Bank of Canada left (Boc) the overnight rate unchanged at 1.75% yesterday.

• "While the central bank says ongoing trade conflicts and related uncertainty “remain the biggest source of risk to the outlook”, it was encouraged by “nascent evidence that the global economy is stabilizing”.
• Statement from the Bank of Canada was arguably more upbeat than the message put out last October. Upward revisions to Canadian GDP were not directly mentioned by the central bank, although emphasis on “resilience” of the economy suggests the BoC is now more comfortable about the Canadian outlook. As such, unlike in October, the option of rate cuts was probably not on the table at this meeting.
• In addition to being forced to raise its 2019 GDP growth forecast for Canada (because of the better-than-expected handoff from 2018Q4), the central bank may also have to upgrade the 2020 outlook as it incorporates fiscal policy in January’s Monetary Policy Report. Of course, that assumes the global economic outlook does not deteriorate from here e.g. trade tensions intensify. All told, we remain comfortable with our forecast of a steady overnight rate over the near to medium term.”

U.S. stock-index futures rose on Thursday on increased hopes of U.S.-China phase-one trade deal.

Global Stocks:

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Statistics Canada announced on Thursday that Canada’s merchandise trade deficit stood at CAD1.08 billion in October, narrowing from a revised CAD1.23 billion gap in September (originally a CAD0.98-billion gap).

Economists had expected a deficit of CAD1.37 billion.

According to the report, the country’s exports rose 0.8 percent m-o-m in October, led by gains in exports of consumer goods (+5.5 percent m-o-m), energy products (+3.4 percent m-o-m) and metal and non-metallic mineral products (+5.7 percent m-o-m). Meanwhile, imports increased 0.5 percent m-o-m in October, mostly on higher imports of energy products (+8.9 percent m-o-m).

Apple (AAPL) target raised to $300 from $250 at Citigroup 

NIKE (NKE) upgraded to Conviction Buy from Neutral at Goldman

The data from the Labor Department revealed on Thursday the number of applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting the labor market remains solid even as the economy is slowing.

According to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits decreased by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 203,000 for the week ended November 30, the lowest level since mid-April.

Economists had expected 215,000 new claims last week.

Claims for the prior week were remained unchanged at 213,000.

Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of claims dropped by 2,000 to 217,750 last week.

The U.S. Commerce Department reported on Thursday U.S. the goods and services trade deficit narrowed to $47.2 billion in October from a revised $51.1 billion in the previous month (originally a gap of $52.5). This represented the lowest trade gap since May of 2018.

Economists had expected a deficit of $48.7 billion.

According to the report, the October decline in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $3.7 billion to $68.0 billion and an advance in the services surplus of $0.2 billion to $20.8 billion.

Exports of goods and services from the U.S. fell 0.2 percent m-o-m to $207.1 billion in October, while imports dropped 1.7 percent m-o-m to $254.3 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit rose 1.3 percent from the same period in 2018. Exports declined less than 0.1 percent, while imports grew 0.2 percent.

• Says global economic uncertainty likely to persist even if U.S. and China reach a trade deal
• Global uncertainty is likely to have a lasting effect: questions remain about whether market pricing fully reflects risks
• The tone of developments in recent weeks gives bank more confidence in its October outlook for growth and inflation
• Notable economic strengths and on-target inflation mean Canada is resilient but it is not immune
• Damaging effects of trade conflict are only partially offset by easier monetary policy
• Recent data augur well for households financial situation and future spending, although consumer confidence has been softening
• Heavy household borrowing creates vulnerabilities that could amplify any negative shock to the economy; lowering rates further could make vulnerabilities worse
• Canada's employment wage growth data suggest labor market is continuing to tighten
• In hindsight moves in Canada and U.S. toward balance budgets starting in 2010 were premature

Analysts at Danske Bank note that the main market mover yesterday was a Bloomberg article quoting U.S. trade officials as saying that the U.S. and China was moving closer to a phase one deal.

• “The upbeat comments were in stark contrast to signals by US President Donald Trump, who said on Tuesday: "I like the idea of waiting until after the election for the China deal". That Trump was likely bluffing was supported by the trade officials saying yesterday that Trump was speaking "off the cuff" and that they expected a deal to be negotiated before 15 December, when new tariffs are set to be imposed on China. The news led to a turn in risk sentiment, with stock markets and bond yields moving higher again.
• We continue to believe that a phase one deal will be struck in December, as Trump badly needs China to buy US agricultural goods soon. The US election is moving closer and US farmers, who deliver critical votes in three important swing states, have been the main victims on the US side of the trade war. Without a deal to secure China buying farm goods again, it could be very hard for Trump to win the election. China has reacted very sharply to a US bill on Xinjiang going through Congress, but there are not yet any indications that this is affecting the trade talks.”

FX Strategists at UOB Group believe the strong momentum in the Kiwi Dollar remains well in place and could push NZD/USD to the 0.66 neighbourhood, a key hurdle.

• "24-hour view: NZD traded between 0.6504 and 0.6542 yesterday, close to our expected range of 0.6500/0.6540. Upward momentum has picked up with the firm opening this morning and the bias from here is for NZD to move towards 0.6560. A rise above this level would not be surprising but the next resistance at 0.6580 is likely out of reach. On the downside, the low near 0.6505 is not expected to come into the picture today (minor support at 0.6520).
• Next 1-3 weeks: The price action over the past couple of days is in line with our expectation from Tuesday (03 Dec, spot at 0.6500) wherein we held the view NZD ‘could advance towards 0.6560’. NZD touched 0.6542 yesterday and opened on a firm note this morning. In other words, NZD is still strong and if it were to break above 0.6560, it would shift the focus towards the weekly declining trend line at 0.6600. The relatively long-term trend line is a formidable resistance and may not be easy to crack. The current positive outlook for NZD is deemed as intact unless the 0.6480 ‘strong support’ is breached (level was previously at 0.6460). On a shorter-term note, 0.6505 is already a strong support level.”

Canada's merchandise trade deficit likely to widen in October – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting that Canada’s merchandise trade deficit to widen to $2.0bn in October from $0.98bn (market: -$1.4bn).

“It will likely be reflecting a large drop in motor vehicle exports after the US GM strike led to a parts shortage across Canadian auto plants. This will contribute to a broader pullback in export activity while a modest decline in imports will provide a partial offset.

At 7:45 ET, we will hear from BoC Deputy Governor Tim Lane who will deliver an economic progress report following Wednesday's decision. Lane's speech will include an audience Q&A, with an official press conference scheduled to follow at 9:20 ET.”

GBP/USD targets 1.3190 – UOB

FX Strategists at UOB Group suggested that GBP/USD could now extend the upside to the 1.3190 area in the next weeks.

"24-hour view: While our view for GBP to strengthen was not wrong, the pace and the extent of the advance came as a surprise. GBP blew past several strong resistance levels with ease and hit a high of 1.3120. Strong upward momentum suggests there is scope for GBP to move above the major mid- to long-term resistance at 1.3140. That said, any further advance is likely to exhaust itself before the next resistance at 1.3190. On the downside, 1.3055 is expected to be strong enough to hold any intraday pull-back (minor support is at 1.3075).

Next 1-3 weeks: While our view for ‘GBP to advance’ from yesterday (04 Dec, spot at 1.2995) was correct, our expectation that ‘1.3070 may not come into the picture so soon’ was wrong. The sudden and rapid acceleration in momentum led to GBP surging to an overnight high of 1.3120. From here, all eyes are at the long-term resistance of 1.3140 (declining trend line on the weekly chart). In view of the vastly improved momentum, a break of this level would not be surprising and would shift the focus to the next resistance at 1.3190 (above this level there is hardly any resistance level of note until 1.3380). On the downside, the ‘strong support’ level has moved markedly higher to 1.2995 from yesterday’s level of 1.2925. On a shorter-term note, 1.3055 is already a strong level.”

Analysts at TD Securities note that the market is projecting the trade deficit to shrink further at the start of Q4 to USD -48.6bn in October from -52.2bn in the month before.

• “Separately, consensus expects initial jobless claims to remain subdued at 215k for the week of Nov 30, essentially unchanged vs the prior week. The print would maintain claims close to record lows, suggesting the labor market remains resilient.”

FX Strategists at UOB Group thought EUR/USD could attempt a move higher to the 1.1125 level.

• "24-hour view: We highlighted yesterday ‘the underlying tone still appears to be firm and we continue to see chance for EUR to edge above last month’s 1.1096-peak’. We added, ‘the next resistance at 1.1125 is likely out of reach’. EUR subsequently popped to a high of 1.1115 during late London hours but the advance was short-lived as it dropped back quickly to end the day little changed at 1.1076 (-0.05%). Upward pressure has eased and the current movement is viewed as the early parts of a consolidation phase. For today, EUR is expected to trade sideways to slightly lower, likely between 1.1055 and 1.1100.
• Next 1-3 weeks: There is not much to add to the update from yesterday (04 Nov, spot at 1.1080). As highlighted, while it is too early to expect a sustained advance, EUR could test the strong 1.1125 resistance. However, the rapid retreat from the NY hour peak of 1.1115 has weakened the underlying tone somewhat. That said, only a break of 1.1035 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.1020 yesterday) would indicate the current upward pressure has eased. Until there is a break of the ‘strong support’ level, another ‘stab’ at 1.1125 is not ruled out just yet.”

• Package includes:

1.  JPY13.2 trillion of fiscal measures
2. actual spending of  JPY9.4 trillion
3. central government spending of  JPY7.6 trillion

• Extra budget to cover JPY4.3 trillion worth of stimulus measures

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Thursday that Japan would make necessary preparations for a trade deal with the United States to come into effect in January.

Japan’s upper house of parliament on Wednesday approved the deal, which cuts tariffs on U.S. farm goods and Japanese machine tools. The lower house endorsed it last month.

President Donald Trump is expected to sign the implementing proclamation for the United States next week, according to United States Trade Representative.

The two leaders agreed in September to allow four months to consult on further bilateral trade talks after the initial deal goes into effect.

According to estimates from Eurostat, in October 2019 compared with September 2019, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade decreased by 0.6% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.4% in the EU28. Economists had expected a 0.3% decrease in the euro area. In September 2019, the retail trade volume decreased by 0.2% in the euro area and by 0.1% in the EU28. In October 2019 compared with October 2018, the calendar adjusted retail sales index increased by 1.4% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU28. Economists had expected a 2.2% increase in the euro area.

In the euro area in October 2019, compared with September 2019, the volume of retail trade decreased by 1.1% for non-food products, while food, drinks and tobacco increased by 0.3% and automotive fuels by 0.6%. In the EU28, the volume of retail trade decreased by 0.8% for non-food products while food, drinks and tobacco increased by 0.2% and automotive fuels by 0.6%.

In the euro area in October 2019, compared with October 2018, the volume of retail trade increased by 2.3% for non-food products, by 1.4% for automotive fuel and by 0.3% for food, drinks and tobacco. In the EU28, the retail trade volume increased by 2.8% for non-food products, by 2.0% for automotive fuel, and by 0.9% for food, drinks and tobacco.

Eurostat said, the number of persons employed increased by 0.1% in both the euro area and the EU28 in the third quarter of 2019 compared with the previous quarter. In the second quarter of 2019, employment increased by 0.2% in the euro area and 0.3% in the EU28.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, employment increased by 0.9% in the euro area and by 0.8% in the EU28 in the third quarter of 2019 (after +1.2% and +1.0% respectively in the second quarter of 2019).

Based on seasonally adjusted figures, Eurostat estimates that in the third quarter of 2019, 241.5 million people were employed in the EU28, of which 160.1 million were in the euro area. These are the highest levels of employment ever recorded in both areas. More specifically, the number of persons employed has increased by 11.4 million in the euro area and 17.4 million in the EU28 since the lowest level of employment after the financial crisis (2013 Q2 for euro area, 2013 Q1 for EU28).

According to an estimate published by Eurostat, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.2% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.3% in the EU28 during the third quarter of 2019, compared with the previous quarter. In the second quarter of 2019, GDP had grown by 0.2% in both zones.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 1.2% in the euro area and by 1.4% in the EU28 in the third quarter of 2019, after also +1.2% and +1.4% respectively in the previous quarter.

During the third quarter of 2019, household final consumption expenditure rose by 0.5% in both the euro area and in the EU28 (after +0.2% and +0.3% respectively in the previous quarter). Gross fixed capital formation increased by 0.3% in both zones (after +5.7% and +4.3% respectively). Exports increased by 0.4% in the euro area and 1.0% in the EU28 (after +0.2% and -0.5% respectively). Imports increased by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.7% in the EU28 (after +2.8% and +0.5% respectively). Household final consumption expenditure had a positive contribution to GDP growth in both the euro area and the EU28 (both +0.3 percentage points – pp) and the contribution from gross fixed capital formation was also positive (+0.1 pp in both zones). 

According to the report from IHS Markit, eurozone construction companies saw a marginal rise in activity during November, extending the current sequence of expansion to three months. The weak rate of growth was roughly in line with that recorded in October, as an increase in housing activity offset falls among commercial and civil engineering firms. Meanwhile, new order growth quickened to its fastest in nine months and firms reported the sharpest rise in headcounts for five months. Construction input costs continued to rise solidly, but the pace of inflation was the slowest since October 2016.

Little-changed at 50.6 in November from 50.7 in October, the

Eurozone Construction PMI signalled a marginal rise in total construction activity, with the rate of growth broadly consistent with that in October. Germany posted a moderate increase, whilst activity in France was broadly flat and Italian constructors recorded a decline.

Finally, firms remained optimistic of an increase in activity over the coming year, on balance. Although the degree of positivity weakened from October to the lowest since September 2016.

According to figures released today by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), the UK new car market fell -1.3% in November, with 156,621 models registered. This maintains the downward trend for new car registrations throughout 2019, as multiple factors, including weak business and consumer confidence, economic uncertainty and confusion over diesel and clean air zones, combined to affect demand.

In November, the decline was driven primarily by weak private demand, registrations down -6.1%, while the business market also fell, down -3.2%, but fleet registrations fared better, up 2.8%. For the second consecutive month, total alternatively fuelled vehicle (AFV) registrations reached a record market share, with more than one in 10 cars joining UK roads either hybrid, plug-in hybrid or pure electric – equivalent to 16,052 cars.

Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive, said: "These are challenging times for the UK new car market, with another fall in November reflecting the current climate of uncertainty. It’s good news, however, to see registrations of electrified cars surging again, and 2020 will see manufacturers introduce plenty of new, exciting models to give buyers even more choice.".

Lee Sue Ann, Economist at UOB Group, sees the BoE keeping the monetary conditions unchanged at its meeting later this month.

“Despite the dovish tilt at its November meeting, we expect the BoE to be in a wait-and-see stance. We believe that with two dissenters against a large majority is still somewhat premature in tipping the balance for a rate cut, especially with a no-deal Brexit scenario off the immediate agenda. We would prefer to wait for the outcome of the impending election and its subsequent impact on how Brexit may proceed before making changes to our forecasts”.

Tariffs must be cut if China and the United States are to reach an interim agreement on trade, the Asian nation's commerce ministry said, sticking to its stance that some U.S. tariffs must be rolled back for a phase one deal.

"The Chinese side believes that if the two sides reach a phase one deal, tariffs should be lowered accordingly," ministry spokesman Gao Feng told reporters, adding that both sides were maintaining close communication.

On a telephone call last week, China's lead trade negotiator Vice Premier Liu He discussed "core issues of concern" with U.S. Trade representative Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

Completion of a phase one deal between the world's two biggest economies had been initially expected in November, ahead of a new round of U.S. tariffs set to kick in on Dec. 15, covering about $156 billion of Chinese imports.

Danske Bank analysts suggest that the main factor driving markets is news on the US-China trade talks , which has caused rising volatility in markets over the past days due to conflicting signals from the US side.

“Today's data highlight is the final Q3 GDP estimate from the euro area, which will provide more details on the sub-components of the national account. We look out for what drove the 0.2% q/q growth rate in Q3, as signs have increasingly indicated that the strong domestic demand seen so far has started to feel the pinch as well. US initial jobless claims are also on the calendar today”, Danske Bank said.

Newly-appointed Bank of Japan board member Harada said on Thursday that he saw no need to take additional policy steps as the central bank's yield curve control would yield synergy effects with the government's fresh economic stimulus spending.

Harada also said the central bank should stick to its 2% inflation target, which has helped the economy improve and stabilised the currency market because it is perceived as the "global standard."

Harada, a vocal proponent of reflationist policy, was speaking to reporters after delivering a speech to local business leaders in the southwestern city of Oita.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research discusses AUD medium-term outlook through 2020. BofAML targets AUD/USD at 0.70 in Q1 and 0.73 in Q4 of 2020. 

"Assuming a meaningful trade deal between the US and China, we expect AUD to recover through 2020. We have revised up our end-2019 forecast slightly to 0.69 (previously 0.67) to reflect the rising probability of tariff rollback. We expect a further gradual uptrend in AUD/USD in 2020 as trade issues dissipate and the Australian economy recovers. We continue to forecast AUD/USD to end 2020 at 0.73," BofAML adds.

Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced stimulus measures to support growth in an economy contending with an export slump, natural disasters and the fallout from a recent sales tax increase.

The total stimulus package amounts to around 26 trillion yen ($239 billion) spread over the coming years, with fiscal measures around half that figure, according to a draft. The stimulus will boost real growth by about 1.4 percentage point, the draft said.

The extra spending comes amid a rising awareness around the world that more government help is needed to keep economies growing in the face of a global slowdown that is exposing the limits of relying on central banks do the heavy lifting of economic management.

Abe described the stimulus as a three-pillared package designed to aid disaster relief, protect against downside economic risks and prepare the country for longer-term growth after the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. He said the stimulus would be funded by a supplementary budget for the current fiscal year ending in March, and special measures in the following year. The draft indicated that finding for the measures in the extra budget would be around 4.3 trillion yen.

While the package was slightly larger than expected, the single-digit size of fresh spending measures left markets largely unimpressed.

Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) said that price-adjusted new orders in manufacturing had decreased in October 2019 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 0.4% on the previous month. Economists had expected a 0.3% increase. For September 2019, revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in an increase of 1.5% compared with August 2019 (provisional: +1.3%). Price-adjusted new orders without major orders in manufacturing had decreased in October 2019 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 1.4% on the previous month.

Domestic orders decreased by 3.2% and foreign orders rose 1.5% in October 2019 on the previous month. New orders from the euro area were up 11.1%, new orders from other countries decreased 4.1% compared to September 2019.

In October 2019 the manufacturers of intermediate goods saw new orders increase by 0.7% compared with September 2019. The manufacturers of capital goods showed decreases of 1.1% on the previous month. For consumer goods, an increase in new orders of 0.3% was recorded.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1201 (5885)

$1.1152 (4809)

$1.1110 (3908)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1081

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1045 (3090)

$1.0999 (3594)

$1.0950 (3372)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 6 is 110269 contracts (according to data from December, 4) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (5885);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3204 (1488)

$1.3163 (210)

$1.3134 (1470)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3110

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2994 (239)

$1.2947 (391)

$1.2899 (2276)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 6 is 31796 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (5892);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 6 is 35511 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2200 (2280);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.12 versus 1.07 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 4

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.