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Forex-novosti i prognoze od 03-11-2024
- Gold price trades in positive territory around $2,740 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- The US added just 12,000 jobs in October, the weakest since December 2020.
- Traders will closely monitor the US presidential election and Fed rate decision this week.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild gains, snapping the two-day losing streak near $2,740 during the early Asian session on Monday. The uncertainty around the US presidential election and Middle East tensions might boost the safe-haven demand, supporting the yellow metal.
The upside of the precious metal is bolstered by looming US election uncertainties and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The spotlight for this week will be the US presidential election on Tuesday. JPMorgan analysts noted that regardless of the outcome of the US election, any pullback in gold prices would present a good buying opportunity.
The weaker US October Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data boosts rate cut hopes as markets now expect a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) at next Thursday’s meeting. The US NFP increased by 12,000 in October, the smallest gain since December 2020, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed Friday. This figure followed the 223,000 rise (revised from 254,000) seen in September and below the market consensus of 113,000 by a wide margin. The Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 4.1% in October, matching expectations.
On the other hand, the renewed Greenback demand and higher yields might weigh on the USD-denominated Gold price as higher yields made non-yielding assets like bullion less attractive in comparison.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- AUD/USD gains ground to around 0.6595 in Monday’s early Asian session, adding 0.54% on the day.
- US NFP registered the smallest gain since December 2020.
- The RBA is expected to hold the Official Cash Rate at 4.35% on Tuesday.
The AUD/USD pair gains momentum to near 0.6595 during the early Asian session on Monday. The uptick of the pair is bolstered by the softer US Dollar (USD) after the weaker-than-expected US October Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. However, the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election might boost the safe-haven flows and weigh on riskier assets like the Australian Dollar (AUD).
Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday showed that the NFP in the US rose by 12,000 in October, followed by the 223,000 increase (revised from 254,000) seen in September and missed the market estimation of 113,000 by a wide margin. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate arrived at 4.1% in October, in line with the consensus.
Financial markets have fully priced in a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) at its November meeting on Thursday. Economists expect another quarter-point rate cut in December and possibly additional such moves next year. Investors will closely monitor the US presidential election outcome on Tuesday as it might trigger volatility in the financial markets.
On the Aussie front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged at a 13-year high amid a slow pace of disinflation and rising global uncertainties, highlighted by an upcoming US presidential election. “Globally, there’s more uncertainty than usual and coupled with the domestic data, argues for caution and patience from the RBA,” said Su-Lin Ong, chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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